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Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height

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Abstract

A mathematical model was used to predict the effect of climate change on soft and hard rock coasts in a 2 m tidal environment. Erosional equations represented the effect of wave impact and bottom generated shear stresses in the intertidal and subtidal zones. Model runs were made for: 2900 years with constant sea level; a further 100 years, representing the last century, with either constant or slow sea level rise (0.2 m per century); and another 100 years, representing the present century, with either slow or fast (1 m per century) sea level rise, and with either no change in storm frequency or with a 10% increase in the frequency of the highest waves. The results suggest that rising sea level will trigger faster rates of cliff recession, whereas increased storm wave frequency may have only a fairly minor effect on erosional efficacy. Model runs were used to derive a series of predictive equations relating cliff recession during the present and last centuries.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Windsor, Ontario, Canada, N9B 3P4

    Alan S. Trenhaile

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  1. Alan S. Trenhaile
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Correspondence to Alan S. Trenhaile.

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Trenhaile, A.S. Predicting the response of hard and soft rock coasts to changes in sea level and wave height. Climatic Change 109, 599–615 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0035-7

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