Abstract
This article discusses how renewable and low-carbon energies can serve as mitigation options of climate change in China’s power sector. Our study is based on scenarios developed in PowerPlan, a bottom-up model simulating a countries’ power sector and its emissions. We first adjusted the model to China’s present-day economy and power sector. We then developed different scenarios based on story lines for possible future developments in China. We simulated China’s carbon-based electricity production system of today and possible future transitions towards a low-carbon system relying on renewable and low-carbon energies. In our analysis, we compare the business-as-usual scenarios with more sustainable energy scenarios. We found that by increasing the share of renewable and nuclear energies to different levels, between 17% and 57% of all CO2 emissions from the power sector could be avoided by 2030 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. We also found that electricity generation costs increase when more sustainable power plants are installed. As a conclusion, China has two options: choosing for high climate change mitigation and high costs or choosing for moderate climate change mitigation and moderate costs. In case high climate change mitigation will be chosen, development assistance is likely to be needed to cover the costs.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Baker and McKenzie (2007) RELaw assist: renewable energy law in China—issues paper. Available at http://www.frankhaugwitz.info/doks/policy/2007_06_China_RE_Law_Assist_issues_paper_AusAid_CRED_CREIA_BakerMcKenzie.PDF. Accessed 3 April 2008
Benders RMJ, de Vries B (1989) Electric power planning in a gaming context. Simul Games 20(3):227–244
Benders RMJ (1996) Interactive simulation of electricity demand and production. Dissertation, University of Groningen
Benders RMJ, Biesiot W (1998) Planning models show comparative results. IEEE Comput Applic Power 11(1):64–68
Buruku B (2005) Chinese renewable energy law. Refocus (May/June):56–57
Chontanawat J, Hunt JC, Pierse P (2008) Does energy consumption cause economic growth?: evidence from a systematic study of over 100 countries. J Policy Model 30:209–220
de Vries B (1990) Energy and environmental consequences and prospects. Taiwan’s miracle. Energy Policy 18(10):949–961
de Vries B, Dijk D, Benders RMJ (1991) PowerPlan an interactive simulation model about electric power planning. Report 45, IVEM, University of Groningen
de Vries HJM, Benders RMJ (1994) Powerplan: an interactive simulation tool to explore electric power planning options. In: Almeida AT (ed) NATO ASI series E applied sciences. Kluwer, Dortrecht
Energy Research Institute ERI (2003) China’s sustainable energy future: scenarios of energy and carbon emissions. ERI, Beijing
Ghali KH, El-Sakka MIT (2004) Energy use and output growth in Canada: a multivariate cointegration analysis. Energy Econ 26:225–238
IEA (2002) World energy outlook: energy and poverty. OECD/IEA, Paris
IEA (2007a) International Energy Agency Data Services. Energy statistics & balances of nonOECD countries, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Available at http://data.iea.org/stats/eng/main.html. Accessed 8 May 2007
IEA (2007b) World energy outlook 2007. China and India insights. OECD/IEA, Paris
IEA (2008) International Energy Agency Data Services. Energy statistics & balances of non-OECD countries, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Available at http://data.iea.org/stats/eng/main.html. Accessed 10 April 2008.
Kainuma M, Matsuoka Y, Morita T (2003) Climate policy assessment. Asia-Pacific integrated modeling. Springer, Tokyo
Larson ED, Zongxin W, DeLaquil P, Wenying C, Pengfei G (2003) Future implications of China’s energy technology choices. Energy Policy 31:1189–1204
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LBNL (2004) China energy databook, version 6.0. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley
Martinot E (2008) Renewable energy in China. Future development targets. Available at http://www.martinot.info/china.htm. Accessed 4 April 2008
National Development and Reform Commission of China NDRC (2007) Medium and long-term development plan for renewable energy in China (abbreviated version, English draft). Available at http://www.martinot.info/China_RE_Plan_to_2020_Sep-2007.pdf. Accessed 03 April 2008
National People’s Congress of China (2005) The renewable energy law of the People’s Republic of China. Available at http://www.martinot.info/China_RE_Law_Beijing_Review.pdf. Accessed 31 March 2008
Nature (2008) China declares ambitious alternative-energy plans. Nature 452:399
Philippe C (2007) Clean and sustainable energy technologies development in Beijing between 2005 and 2010. Tsinghua University, Beijing (MINES, Paris)
Stockholm Environment Institute SEI Boston (2006) LEAP user manual. SEI, Boston
Urban F, Moll HC, Benders RMJ (2006) Modelling transitions to renewable energy in developing countries. In: Sastry EVR, Reddy DN (eds) Proceedings of the International Congress on Renewable Energy ICORE, Hyderabad
Urban F, Benders RJM, Moll HC (2007) Modelling energy systems for developing countries. Energy Policy 35:3473–3482
van der Werff R, Benders RMJ (1987) Power planning in India, adjustment of a simulation model to the electricity supply system in the state Maharashtra. Work Report 6, IVEM, University of Groningen
Wang Y (2007) Energy-related objectives of China’s 11th Five-Year Plan. Personal communication
World Bank (2007) World development indicators WDI. Data query. Available at http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-query. Accessed 04 June 2007
World Energy Council WEC (2004) Survey of energy resources for China. Available at http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/reports/ser04/countries.asp. Accessed 23 April 2007
World Nuclear Association (2008) Nuclear power in China. Available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html. Accessed 4 April 2008
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
This research was conducted at IVEM, NL.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Urban, F., Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C. Renewable and low-carbon energies as mitigation options of climate change for China. Climatic Change 94, 169–188 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9553-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9553-y