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Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series

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Abstract

This paper deals with the modelling of the global and northern and southern hemispheric anomaly temperature time series using a novel technique based on segmented trends and fractional integration. We use a procedure that permits us to estimate linear time trends and orders of integration at various subsamples, where the periods for the changing trends are endogenously determined by the model. Moreover, we use a non-parametric approach (Bloomfield P, Biometrika, 60:217–226, 1973) for modelling the I(0) deviation term. The results show that the three series (global, northern and southern temperatures) can be well described in terms of fractional integration with the orders of integration around 0.5 in the three cases. The coefficients associated to the time trends are statistically significant in all subsamples for the three series, especially during the final part of the sample, giving then some support to the global warming theories.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Economics, University of Navarra, Edificio Biblioteca, Entrada Este, 31080, Pamplona, Spain

    L. A. Gil-Alana

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  1. L. A. Gil-Alana
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Correspondence to L. A. Gil-Alana.

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Gil-Alana, L.A. Time trend estimation with breaks in temperature time series. Climatic Change 89, 325–337 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9407-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9407-z

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