Abstract
The ecological consequences of climate change are determined by many climate parameters, not just by the commonly investigated changes in mean temperature and rainfall. More comprehensive studies, including analyses of climate variability, extremes and aggregate changes in the climate system, can improve the understanding of the nature, and therefore possible consequences, of recent changes in climate. Here climate trends on the sub-Antarctic Marion Island are documented (between 1949 and 2003) in more detail than previously. Significant trends in biologically-relevant, and previously unexplored, parameters were observed, and the potential ecological consequences of these changes discussed. For example, the decline in precipitation experienced on the island comprises a trend for longer dry spells punctuated by fewer and smaller precipitation events. This more detailed understanding of the island’s drying trends enables more accurate predictions about its impacts, including, for example, particularly severe effects on plant species growing in soils with poor water-holding capacity. Therefore, in addition to changes in average conditions, more inclusive climate analyses should also examine trends in climatic variability and extremes, for individual climate parameters as well as for the climate system as a whole.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anonymous (2001) Wind chill temperature index. National Weather Service, Silver Springs, p 4
Arft AM, Walker MD, Gurevitch J, Alatalo JM, Bret-Harte MS, Dale M, Diemer M, Gugerli F, Henry GHR, Jones MH, Hollister RD et al. (1999) Responses of tundra plants to experimental warming: meta-analysis of the international tundra experiment. Ecol Monogr 69:491–511
Ashton DH, Gill AM (1965) Pattern and process in a Macquarie Island feldmark. Proc R Soc Vic 79:235–245
Avenant NL, Smith VR (2003) The microenvironment of house mice on Marion Island (sub-Antarctic). Polar Biol 26:129–141
Bannister P, Maegli T, Dickinson KJM, Halloy SRP, Knight A, Lord JM, Mark AF, Spencer KL (2005) Will loss of snow cover during climatic warming expose New Zealand alpine plants to increased frost damage? Oecologia 144:245–256
Bate GC, Smith VR (1983) Photosynthesis and respiration in the sub-Antarctic tussock grass Poa cookii. New Phytol 95:533–543
Benedetti-Cecchi L (2003) The importance of the variance around the mean effect size of ecological processes. Ecology 84:2335–2346
Berjak P (1979) The Marion Island Flora – Tillaea moschata Dc. from fresh- and salt-water situations. Proc Electron Micros Soc S Afr 9:69–70
Boelhouwers J, Holness S, Sumner P (2003) The maritime sub-Antarctic: a distinct periglacial environment. Geomorphology 52:39–55
Bonan G (2002) Ecological climatology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 690
Bruce P, Simon J, Oswald T (1999) Resampling stats: user’s guide. Resampling Stats, Arlington, VA
Büßer C, Kahles A, Quillfeldt P (2004) Breeding success and chick provisioning in Wilson’s storm-petrels Oceanites oceanicus over seven years: frequent failures due to food shortage and entombment. Polar Biol 27:613–622
Callaghan TV, Carlsson BÅ (1997) Impacts of climate change on demographic processes and population dynamics in arctic plants. In Oechel WC, Callaghan TV, Gilmanov T, Holten JI, Maxwell B, Molau U, Sveinbjörnsson B (eds) Global change and arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Springer, New York, pp 129–152
Camarero JJ, Gutiérrez E (2004) Pace and pattern of recent treeline dynamics: response of ecotones to climatic variability in the Spanish Pyrenees. Clim Change 63:181–200
Chapin FS III, Shaver GR (1985) Individualistic growth response of tundra plant species to environmental manipulations in the field. Ecology 66:564–576
Chapuis J-L, Frenot Y, Lebouvier M (2004) Recovery of native plant communities after eradication of rabbits from the subantarctic Kerguelen Islands, and influence of climate change. Biol Conserv 117:167–179
Chapuis JL, Hennion F, le Roux V, le Cuziat J (2000) Growth and reproduction of the endemic cruciferous species Pringlea antiscorbutica in Kerguelen Islands. Polar Biol 23:196–204
Chown SL (2001) Physiological variation in insects: hierarchical levels and implications. J Insect Physiol 47:649–660
Chown SL, Crafford JE (1992) Microhabitat temperatures at Marion Island (46°54′S 37°45′E). S Afr J Antarct Res 22:51–58
Chown SL, Smith VR (1993) Climate change and the short-term impact of feral house mice at the sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands. Oecologia 96:508–516
Cook GD, Heerdegen RG (2001) Spatial variation in the duration of the rainy season in monsoonal Australia. Int J Climatol 21:1723–1732
Cook GD, Williams RJ, Hutley LB, O’Grady AP, Liedloff AC (2002) Variation in vegetative water use in the Savannas of the North Australian tropical transect. J Veg Sci 13:413–418
Cooper J, Lutjeharms JRE (1992) Correlations between seabird breeding success and meteorological conditions on Marion and Gough Islands. S Afr J Sci 88:173–175
Crafford JE, Scholtz CH, Chown SL (1986) The insects of sub-Antarctic Marion and Prince Edward Islands; with a bibliography of entomology of the Kerguelen biogeographical province. S Afr J Antarct Res 16:42–84
Crawford RJM, Rae CMD, Nel DC, Cooper J (2003) Unusual breeding by seabirds at Marion Island during 1997/98. Afr J Mar Sci 25:453–462
Dormann CF, Woodin SJ (2002) Climate change in the Arctic: using plant functional types in a meta-analysis of field experiments. Func Ecol 16:4–17
Drake JM (2005) Population effects of increased climate variation. Proc R Soc Lond B 272:1823–1827
Easterling DR, Evans JL, Groisman PY, Karl TR, Kunkel KE, Ambenje P (2000a) Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:417–425
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000b) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074
Elagib NA, Mansell MG (2000) Recent trends and anomalies in mean seasonal and annual temperatures over Sudan. J Arid Environ 45:263–288
Ennos AR (1997) Wind as an ecological factor. Trends Ecol Evol 12:108–111
Fay PA, Carlisle JD, Danner BT, Lett MS, McCarron JK, Steward K, Knapp AK, Blair JM, Collins SL (2002) Altered rainfall patterns, gas exchange, and growth in grasses and forbs. Int J Plant Sci 163:549–557
Forchhammer MC, Post E (2004) Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies. Popul Ecol 46:1–12
Frenot Y, Gloaguen J-C, Tréhen P (1997) Climate change in Kerguelen Islands and colonization of recently deglaciated areas by Poa kerguelensis and P. annua. In Battaglia B, Valencia J, Walton D (eds) Antarctic communities: species, structure and survival. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 358–366
Gaines SD, Denny MW (1993) The largest, smallest, highest, lowest, longest, and shortest: extremes in ecology. Ecology 74:1677–1692
García LV (2004) Escaping the bonferroni iron claw in ecological studies. Oikos 105:657–663
Goldberg SM (2004) Factors influencing the distribution of an alien invasive slug Deroceras caruanae (Gastropoda: Limacidae) on Marion Island, B.Sc. (Honours). Dissertation, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, p 28
Good PI (1999) Resampling methods: a practical guide to data analysis. 2nd ed. Birkhäuser, Boston, p 270
Grace J (1977) Plant response to wind. Academic, London, p 204
Gutschick VP, BassiriRad H (2003) Extreme events as shaping physiology, ecology, and evolution of plants: toward a unified definition and evaluation of their consequences. New Phytol 160:21–42
Hallett TB, Coulson T, Pilkington JG, Clutton-Brock TH, Pemberton JM, Grenfell BT (2004) Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 430:71–75
Hänel C, Chown SL (1998) An introductory guide to the Marion and Prince Edward Island special nature reserves. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria, p 80
Hayward SAL, Worland MR, Convey P, Bale JS (2003) Temperature preferences of the mite, Alaskozetes antarcticus, and the Collembolan, Cryptopygus antarcticus from the maritime Antarctic. Physiol Entomol 28:114–121
Heilbronn TD, Walton DWH (1984) Plant colonization of actively sorted stone stripes in the subantarctic. Arct Alp Res 16:161–172
Helmuth B, Harley CDG, Halpin PM, O’Donnell M, Hofmann GE, Blanchette CA (2002) Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress. Science 298:1015–1018
Helmuth B, Kingsolver JG, Carrington E (2005) Biophysics, physiological ecology, and climate change: does mechanism matter? Annu Rev Physiol 67:177–201
Helmuth BST, Hofmann GE (2001) Microhabitats, thermal heterogeneity, and patterns of physiological stress in the rocky intertidal zone. Biol Bull 201:374–384
Hodkinson ID, Webb NR, Bale JS, Block W (1999) Hydrology, water availability and tundra ecosystem function in a changing climate: the need for a closer integration of ideas. Glob Chang Biol 5:359–369
Holness S (2001) The orientation of sorted striped in the maritime subantarctic, Marion Island. Earth Surf Process Landf 26:77–89
Holness SD (2004) Sediment movement rates and processes on cinder cones in the maritime subantarctic (Marion Island). Earth Surf Process Landf 29:91–103
Hughes L (2000) Biological consequences of global warming: is the signal already apparent. Trends Ecol Evol 15:56–61
Hugo EA, McGeoch MA, Marshall DJ, Chown SL (2004) Fine scale variation in microarthropod communities inhabiting the keystone species Azorella selago on Marion Island. Polar Biol 27:466–473
Hummel I, Quemmerais F, Gouesbet G, El Amrani A, Frenot Y, Hennion F, Couée I (2004) Characterization of environmental stress responses during early development of Pringlea antiscorbutica in the field at Kerguelen. New Phytol 162:705–715
Huntley B (1991) How plants respond to climate change – migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant communities. Ann Bot 67 (Suppl. 1):15–22
Huntley BJ (1970) Altitudinal distribution and phenology of Marion Island vascular plants. Tydskr Natuurwet 10:255–262
Huntley BJ (1971) Vegetation. In van Zinderen Bakker EM, Sr, Winterbottom JM, Dyer RA (eds), Marion and Prince Edward Islands: report on the South African biological and geological expeditions, 1965–1966. A.A. Balkema, Cape Town, pp 98–160
Huntley BJ (1972) Notes on the ecology of Azorella selago Hook. F. J S Afr Bot 38:103–113
Huth R, Pokorná L (2005) Simultaneous analysis of climatic trends in multiple variables: an example of application of multivariate statistical methods. Int J Climatol 25:469–484
Huyser O, Ryan PG, Cooper J (2000) Changes in population size, habitat use and breeding biology of lesser sheathbills (Chionis minor) at Marion Island: impacts of cats, mice and climate change. Biol Conserv 92:299–310
Inouye DW (2000) The ecological and evolutionary significance of frost in the context of climate change. Ecol Lett 3:457–463
Inouye DW, McGuire AD (1991) Effects of snowpack on timing and abundance of flowering in Delphinium nelsonii (Ranunculaceae): implications for climate change. Am J Bot 78:997–1001
IPCC (2001) Intergovernmental panel on climate change working group I, Climate Change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 63
Jonasson S (1986) Influence of frost heaving on soil chemistry and on the distribution of plant growth forms. Geogr Ann, A 68:185–195
Karl TR, Jones PD, Knight RW, Kukla G, Plummer N, Razuvayev V, Gallo KP, Lindseay J, Charlson RJ, Peterson TC (1993) A new perspective on recent global warming – asymmetric trends of daily maximum and minimum temperature. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 74:1007–1023
Karl TR, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Quayle RG (1996) Indices of climate change for the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:279–292
Katz RW, Brown BG (1992) Extreme events in a changing climate: variability is more important than averages. Clim Change 21:289–302
Kingsford RT, Jenkins KM, Porter JL (2004) Imposed hydrological stability on lakes in arid Australia and effects on waterbirds. Ecology 85:2478–2492
Klanderud K, Birks HJB (2003) Recent increases in species richness and shifts in altitudinal distributions of Norwegian mountain plants. Holocene 13:1–6
Klein Tank AMG, Können GP (2003) Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946–99. J Climate 16:3665–3680
Klok CJ, Chown SL (1997) Critical thermal limits, temperature tolerance and water balance of a sub-Antarctic caterpillar, Pringleophaga marioni (Lepidoptera: Tineidae). J Insect Physiol 43:685–694
Klok CJ, Chown SL (1998) Interactions between desiccation resistance, host-plant contact and the thermal biology of a leaf-dwelling sub-Antarctic caterpillar, Embryonopsis halticella (Lepidoptera: Yponomeutidae). J Insect Physiol 44:615–628
Klok CJ, Chown SL (2001) Critical thermal limits, temperature tolerance and water balance of a sub-Antarctic kelp fly, Paractora dreuxi (Diptera: Helcomyzidae). J Insect Physiol 47:95–109
Knapp AK, Fay PA, Blair JM, Collins SL, Smith MD, Carlisle JD, Harper CW, Danner BT, Lett MS, McCarron JK (2002) Rainfall variability, carbon cycling, and plant species diversity in a mesic grassland. Science 298:2202–2205
Körner C (2003) Alpine plant life: Functional plant ecology of high mountain ecosystems, 2nd ed. Springer, Heidelberg, p 344
le Roux PC (2004) Azorella selago (Apiaceae) as a model for examining climate change effects in the sub-Antarctic. M.Sc. thesis, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, p 145
le Roux PC, McGeoch MA (2004) The use of size as an estimator of age in the sub-Antarctic cushion plant, Azorella selago (Apiaceae). Arc Antarct Alp Res 36:608–616
le Roux PC, McGeoch MA, Nyakatya MJ, Chown SL (2005) Effects of simulated climate change on a keystone plant species in the Sub-Antarctic. Glob Chang Biol 11:1628–1639
Legendre P, Legendre L (1998) Numerical ecology, 2nd ed. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 853
Lepš J, Šmilauer P (2003) Multivariate analysis of ecological data using canoco. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p269
Lynch AJJ, Kirkpatrick JB (1995) Pattern and process in alpine vegetation and landforms at Hill One, Southern Range, Tasmania. Aust J Bot 43:537–554
McCarthy JP (2001) Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conserv Biol 15:320–331
McGeoch MA, le Roux PC, Hugo EA, Chown SL (2006) Species and community responses to short-term climate manipulation: microarthropods in the sub-Antarctic. Aust Ecol 31:719–731
McLaughlin JF, Hellmann JJ, Boggs CL, Ehrlich PR (2002) Climate change hastens population extinctions. P Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:6070–6074
Meehl GA, Karl TR, Easterling DR, Changnon SA, Pielke R Jr, Changnon D, Evans J, Groisman PY, Knutson TR, Kunkel KE, Mearns LO, Parmesan C, Pulwarty R, Root TL, Sylves RT, Whetton P, Zwiers F (2000) An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:413–416
Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Yocooz NG, Langvatn R (2001) Nonlinear effects of large-scale climatic variability on wild and domestic herbivores. Nature 410:1096–1099
Nicholls N (2004) The changing nature of Australian droughts. Clim Change 63:323–336
Norton LR, Firbank LG, Gray AJ, Watkinson AR (1999) Responses to elevated temperature and CO2 in the perennial grass Agrostis curtisii in relation to population origin. Func Ecol 13 (Suppl 1):9–37
Nylehn J, Totland O (1999) Effects of temperature and natural disturbance on growth, reproduction, and population density in the alpine annual hemiparasite Euphrasia frigida. Arc Antarct Alp Res 31:259–263
Ovadia O, Schmitz OJ (2004) Weather variation and trophic interaction strength: sorting the signal from the noise. Oecologia 140:398–406
Pakhomov EA, McClelland JW, Bernard K, Kaehler S, Montoya JP (2004) Spatial and temporal shifts in stable isotope values of the bottom-dwelling shrimp Nauticaris marionis at the sub-Antarctic archipelago. Mar Biol 144:317–325
Pammenter NW, Drennan PM, Smith VR (1986) Physiological and anatomical aspects of photosynthesis of two Agrostis species at a sub-Antarctic island. New Phytol 102:143–160
Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species’ range. Nature 382:765–766
Parmesan C, Root TL, Willig MR (2000) Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:443–450
Peltola H, Kellomäki S, Väisänen H (1999) Model computations of the impact of climatic change on the windthrow risk of trees. Clim Change 41:17–36
Peñuelas J, Boada M (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain). Glob Chang Biol 9:131–140
Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308:1912–1915
Post E, Stenseth NC (1999) Climatic variability, plant phenology, and northern ungulates. Ecology 80:1322–1339
Pounds JA, Fogden MPL, Campbell JH (1999) Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398:611–615
Quinn GP, Keough MJ (2002) Experimental design and data analysis for biologists, 1st ed. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 537
Renault D, Nedved O, Hervant F, Vernon P (2004) The importance of fluctuating thermal regimes for repairing chill injuries in the tropical beetle Alphitobius diaperinus (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) during exposure to low temperature. Physiol Entomol 29:139–145
Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA (2003) Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421:57–60
Ruel JJ, Ayres MP (1999) Jensen’s inequality predicts effects of environmental variation. Trends Ecol Evol 14:361–366
Saetersdal M, Birks HJB (1997) A comparative ecological study of Norwegian mountain plants in relation to possible future climatic change. J Biogeogr 24:127–152
Schmidt KA (2004) Site fidelity in temporally correlated environments enhances population persistence. Ecol Lett 7:176–184
Schulze BR (1971) The climate of Marion Island. In van Zinderen Bakker, EM Sr, Winterbottom JM, Dyer RA (eds), Marion and Prince Edward Islands: report on the South African biological and geological expeditions, 1965–1966. A.A. Balkema, Cape Town, pp 16–31
Scott L (1985) Palynological indications of the quaternary vegetation history of Marion Island (sub-Antarctic). J Biogeogr 12:413–431
Shaver GR, Canadell J, Chapin FS III, Gurevitch J, Harte J, Henry G, Ineson P, Jonasson S, Melillo JM, Pitelka L, Rustad LE (2000) Global warming and terrestrial ecosystems: a conceptual framework for analysis. Bioscience 50:871–882
Sinclair BJ (2001) Field ecology of freeze tolerance: interannual variation in cooling rates, freeze-thaw and thermal stress in the microhabitat of the alpine cockroach Celatoblatta quinquemaculata. Oikos 93:286–293
Sinclair BJ, Addo-Bediako A, Chown SL (2003) Climatic variability and the evolution of insect freeze tolerance. Biol Rev 78:181–195
Sinclair BJ, Chown SL (2005) Deleterious effects of repeated cold exposure in a freeze-tolerant sub-Antarctic caterpillar. J Exp Biol 208:869–879
Slabber S, Chown SL (2004) Thermal tolerance and cold hardiness strategy of the sub-Antarctic psocid Antarctopsocus jeanneli badonnel. Polar Biol 28:56–61
Smith VR (2002) Climate change in the sub-Antarctic: an illustration from Marion Island. Clim Change 52:345–357
Smith VR, Steenkamp M (1990) Climate change and its ecological implications at a sub-Antarctic island. Oecologia 85:14–24
Smith VR, Steenkamp M (2001) Classification of the terrestrial habitats on Marion Island based on vegetation and soil chemistry. J Veg Sci 12:181–198
Smith VR, Steenkamp M, Gremmen NJM (2001) Terrestrial habitats on sub-Antarctic Marion Island: their vegetation, edaphic attributes, distribution and response to climate change. S Afr J Bot 67:641–654
Stenseth NC, Mysterud A (2002) Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: Nonlinearity and match–mismatch to the environment. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 99:13379–13381
Stenseth NC, Mysterud A (2005) Weather packages: finding the right scale and composition of climate in ecology. J Anim Ecol 74:1195–1198
Stenseth NC, Mysterud A, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Chan K-S, Lima M (2002) Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297:1292–1296
Stireman JO III, Dyer LA, Janzen DH, Singer MS, Lill JT, Marquis RJ, Ricklefs RE, Gentry GL, Hallwachs W, Coley PD, Barone JA, Greeney HF, Connahs H, Barbosa P, Morais HC, Diniz IR (2005) Climatic unpredictability and parasitism of caterpillars: implications of global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 102:17384–17387
Taylor AR, Schroter D, Pflug A, Wolters V (2004) Response of different decomposer communities to the manipulation of moisture availability: potential effects of changing precipitation patterns. Glob Chang Biol 10:1313–1324
Taylor BW (1955) The flora, vegetation and soils of Macquarie Island, Antarctic division. Department of External Affairs, Melbourne, p 192
ter Braak CJF, Šmilauer P (2002) Canoco reference manual. Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, p 500
Tweedie CE (2000) Climate change and the autecology of six plant species along an altitudinal gradient on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Ph.D. thesis, University of Queensland, Brisbane, p 330
Walther GR (2004) Plants in a warmer world. Perspect Plant Ecol 6:169–185
Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin J-M, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389–395
Warren Wilson J (1959) Notes on wind and its effects in Arctic-alpine vegetation. J Ecol 47:415–427
Webster PJ, Holland GJ, Curry JA, Chang H-R (2005) Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309:1844–1846
Weimerskirch H, Inchausti P, Guinet C, Barbraud C (2003) Trends in bird and seal populations as indicators of a system shift in the Southern Ocean. Antarct Sci 15:249–256
Weltzin JF, Loik ME, Schwinning S, Williams DG, Fay PA, Haddad BM, Harte J, Huxman TE, Knapp AK, Lin G, Pockman WT, Shaw MR, Small EE, Smith MD, Smith SD, Tissue DT, Zak JC (2003) Assessing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to potential changes in precipitation. Bioscience 53:941–952
Wichmann MC, Jeltsch F, Dean WRJ, Moloney KA, Wissel C (2003) Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid Savanna. Oikos 102:186–202
Wolter K, Timlin MS (1998) Measuring the strength of ENSO – how does 1997/98 rank? Weather 53:315–324
Xiao J, Moody A (2004) Photosynthetic activity of US biomes: Responses to the spatial variability and seasonality of precipitation and temperature. Glob Chang Biol 10:437–451
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
le Roux, P.C., McGeoch, M.A. Changes in climate extremes, variability and signature on sub-Antarctic Marion Island. Climatic Change 86, 309–329 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9259-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9259-y