Abstract
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. However, some of the recent policy literature has focused on dangerous climatic change (DCC) rather than on DAI. DAI is a set of increases in GHGs concentrations that has a non-negligible possibility of provoking changes in climate that in turn have a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm, including harm to one or more of ecosystems, food production systems, and sustainable socio-economic systems, whereas DCC is a change of climate that has actually occurred or is assumed to occur and that has a non-negligible possibility of causing unacceptable harm. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DAI, then the determination of allowable GHG concentrations requires three inputs: the probability distribution function (pdf) for climate sensitivity, the pdf for the temperature change at which significant harm occurs, and the allowed probability (“risk”) of incurring harm previously deemed to be unacceptable. If the goal of climate policy is to prevent DCC, then one must know what the correct climate sensitivity is (along with the harm pdf and risk tolerance) in order to determine allowable GHG concentrations. DAI from elevated atmospheric CO2 also arises through its impact on ocean chemistry as the ocean absorbs CO2. The primary chemical impact is a reduction in the degree of supersaturation of ocean water with respect to calcium carbonate, the structural building material for coral and for calcareous phytoplankton at the base of the marine food chain. Here, the probability of significant harm (in particular, impacts violating the subsidiary conditions in Article 2 of the UNFCCC) is computed as a function of the ratio of total GHG radiative forcing to the radiative forcing for a CO2 doubling, using two alternative pdfs for climate sensitivity and three alternative pdfs for the harm temperature threshold. The allowable radiative forcing ratio depends on the probability of significant harm that is tolerated, and can be translated into allowable CO2 concentrations given some assumption concerning the future change in total non-CO2 GHG radiative forcing. If future non-CO2 GHG forcing is reduced to half of the present non-CO2 GHG forcing, then the allowable CO2 concentration is 290–430 ppmv for a 10% risk tolerance (depending on the chosen pdfs) and 300–500 ppmv for a 25% risk tolerance (assuming a pre-industrial CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv). For future non-CO2 GHG forcing frozen at the present value, and for a 10% risk threshold, the allowable CO2 concentration is 257–384 ppmv. The implications of these results are that (1) emissions of GHGs need to be reduced as quickly as possible, not in order to comply with the UNFCCC, but in order to minimize the extent and duration of non-compliance; (2) we do not have the luxury of trading off reductions in emissions of non-CO2 GHGs against smaller reductions in CO2 emissions, and (3) preparations should begin soon for the creation of negative CO2 emissions through the sequestration of biomass carbon.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alley RB, Clark PU, Huybrechts P, Joughin I (2005) Ice-sheet and sea-level changes. Science 310:456–460
Andronova NG, Schlesinger ME (2001) Objective estimation of the probability density function for climate sensitivity. J Geophys Res 106:22605–22611
Arnell NW, Cannell MGR, Hulme M, Kovats RS, Mitchell JFB, Nicholls RJ, Parry ML, Livermore MTJ, White A (2002) The consequences of CO2 stabilization for the impacts of climate change. Clim Change 53:413–446
Azar C, Schneider SH (2002) Are the economic costs of stabilizing the atmosphere prohibitive? Ecol Econ 42:73–80
Barker T, Pan H, Köhler J, Warren R, Winne S (2006) Avoiding dangerous climate change by inducing technological progress: scenarios using a large-scale econometric model. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 361–371
Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438:303–309
Barrett PJ, Adams CJ, McIntosh WC, Swisher CC, Wilson GS (1992) Geochronological evidence supporting Antarctic deglaciation three million years ago. Nature 339:816–818
Beg N et al (2002) Linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Clim Pol 2:129–144
Berner RA (2004) The Phanerozoic carbon cycle: CO2 and O2. Oxford University Press, Oxford, p 150
Blaustein AR, Dobson A (2006) A message from the frogs. Nature 439:143–144
Brown MA, Levine MD, Romm JP, Rosenfeld AH, Koomey JG (1998) Engineering economic studies of energy technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions: opportunities and challenges. Annu Rev Energy Environ 23:287–385
Caldeira K, Jain AK, Hoffert MI (2003) Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission. Science 299:2052–2054
Church JA, Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Kuhn M, Lambeck K, Nhuan MT, Qin D, Woodworth PL (2001) Changes in sea level. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van den Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 639–693
Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408:184–187
Cox PM, Betts RA, Collins M, Harris PP, Huntingford C, Jones CD (2004) Amazonian forest dieback under climate–carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor Appl Climatol 78:137–156
Crowley TJ (1996). Pliocene climates: the nature of the problem. Mar Micropaleontol 27:3–12
Cubasch U, Meehl GA, Boer GJ, Stouffer RJ, Dix M, Noda A, Senior CA, Raper S, Yap KS (2001) Projections of future climate change. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van den Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 525–582
Cuffey KM, Marshall SJ (2000) Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last glaciation from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Nature 404:591–594
Donner SD, Skirving WJ, Little CM, Oppenheimer M, Hoegh-Guldberg O (2005) Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob Chang Biol 11:2251–2265
Dowsett HJ, Thompson R, Barron J, Cronin T, Fleming F, Ishman S, Poore R, Willard D, Holtz T (1994) Joint investigation of the Middle Pliocene climate I: PRISM paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Glob Planet Change 9:169–195
Dowsett H, Barron J, Poore R (1996) Middle Pliocene sea surface temperatures: A global reconstruction. Mar Micropaleontol 27:13–26
Dwyer GS, Cronin TM, Baker PA, Raymo ME, Buzas JS, Correge T (1995) North American deepwater temperature change during the late Pliocene and late Quaternary climate cycles. Science 270:1347–1351
Feichter J, Roeckner E, Lohman U, Liepert B (2004) Nonlinear aspects of the climate response to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing. J Clim 17:2384–2398
Forest CE, Stone PH, Sokolov AP, Allen MR, Webster MD (2002) Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 295:113-117
Forest CE, Stone PH, Sokolov AP (2006) Estimated pdfs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL023977
Frame DJ, Booth BBB, Kettleborough JA, Stainforth DA, Gregory JM, Collins M, Allen MR (2005) Constraining climate forecasts: the role of prior assumptions. Geophys Res Lett 32, doi:10.1029/2004GL022241
Gerlagh R, van der Zwaan B (2004) A sensitivity analysis of timing and costs of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Clim Change 65:39–71
Gitay H et al (2001) Ecosystems and their goods and services. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OS, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) Climate Change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 235–342
Goldberg J, Wilkinson C (2004) Global Threats to coral reefs: coral bleaching, global climate change, disease, predator plagues, and invasive species. In: Wilkinson (ed) Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004, vol 1. Australian Institute of Marine Science (available from http://www.aims.gov.au/pages/publications.html)
Gregory JM, Stouffer RJ, Raper SCB, Stoot PA, Rayner NA (2002) An observationally based estimate of climate sensitivity. J Climate 15:3117–3321
Hansen J (2005) A slippery slope: how much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference?” Clim Change 68:269–279
Hanson D, Laitner JA (2004) An integrated analysis of policies that increase investments in advanced energy-efficient/low-carbon technologies. Energy Econ 26:739–755
Harvey LDD (2000) Global warming: the hard science. Prentice Hall, Harlow, p 336
Harvey LDD (2003) Impact of deep-ocean carbon sequestration on atmospheric CO2 and on surface-water chemistry. Geophys Res Lett 30(5), doi:10.1029/2002GLO16224
Harvey LDD (2004a) Declining temporal effectiveness of carbon sequestration: implications for compliance with the United Nations framework convention on climate change. Clim Change 63:259–290
Harvey LDD (2004b) Characterizing the annual-mean climatic effect of anthropogenic CO2 and aerosol emissions in eight coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs. Clim Dyn 23:569–599
Harvey LDD (2006a) A handbook on low-energy buildings and district energy systems: fundamentals, techniques, and examples. James and James, London, p 701
Harvey LDD (2006b) Plausible resolution of uncertainties in global-warming science has no near-term practical implications for climate policy. Climate Policy (accepted)
Harvey LDD, Kaufmann R (2002) Simultaneously constraining climate sensitivity and aerosol radiative forcing. J Clim 15:2837-2861
Hegerl G, Crowley TJ, Hyde WT, Frame DJ (2006) Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature 440:1029–1032
Hoegh-Guldberg O (2005) Low coral cover in a high-CO2 world. J Geophys Res 110, C09S06, doi:10.1029/2004JC002528
Hoffert MI, Covey C (1992) Deriving global climate sensitivity from paleoclimate reconstructions. Nature 360:573–576
Hughes TP et al (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301:929–933
Huybrechts P, de Wolde J (1999) The dynamic response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to multiple-century climatic warming. J Clim 12:2169-2188
Ishimatsu A, Hayashi M, Lee K-S, Kikkawa T, Kita J (2005) Physiological effects on fishes in a high-CO2 world. J Geophys Res 110, C09S09, doi:10.1029/2004JC002564
Knutti R, Stocker TF, Joos F, Plattner GK (2002) Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles. Nature 416:719–723
Laurance W, Williamson GB (2001) Positive feedbacks among forest fragmentation, drought, and climate change in the Amazon. Conserv Biol 15:1529–1535
Lea DW (2004) The 100000-yr cycle in tropical SST, greenhouse forcing, and climate sensitivity. J Climate 17:2170–2179
Leemans R, Eickhout B (2004) Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change. Glob Environ Change 14:219–228
Liepert BG, Feichter J, Lohmann U, Roeckner E (2004) Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world? Geophys Res Lett 31, L06207, doi:10.1029/2003GL019060
Malcolm JR, Liu C, Neilson RP, Hansen L, Hannah L (2006) Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv Biol 20:538–548
Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2004) Probabilistic integrated assessment of “dangerous” climate change. Science 304:571–575
McCulloch MT, Esat TM (2000) The coral record of last interglacial sea levels and sea surface temperatures. Chem Geol 169:107–129
Munasinghe M, Swart R (2005) Primer on climate change and sustainable development: facts, policy analysis and applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 445
Murphy JM, Sexton DMH, Barnett DN, Jones GS, Webb MJ, Collins M, Stainforth DA (2004) Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 430:768–772
Nadel S, Geller H (2001) Smart energy policies: saving money and reducing pollutant emissions through greater energy efficiency. American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Washington
Nakićenović N et al (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 599
Oppenheimer M, Alley RB (2004) The West Antarctic ice sheet and long term climate policy, an editorial comment. Clim Change 64:1–10
Oppenheimer M, Alley RB (2005) Ice sheets, global warming, and Article 2 of the UNFCCC. Clim Change 68:257–267
Orr JC et al (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437:681–686
Otto-Bliesner BL, Marshall SJ, Overpeck JT, Miller GH, Hu A (2006) Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglacial. Science 311:1751–1753
Overpeck JT, Otto-Bliesner BL, Miller GH, Muhs DR, Alley RB Kiehl JT (2006) Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise Science 311:1747–1750
Parry M, Arnell N, McMichael T, Nicholls R, Martens P, Kovats S, Livermore M, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Fischer G (2001) Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Glob Environ Change 11:181–183
Parry ML, Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Livermore M, Fischer G (2004) Effects of climate change on global food production and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14:53–67
Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310–317
Pershing J, Tudela F (2003) A long-term target: framing the climate effort. Pew Center of Global Climate Change, Washington, D.C., available from http://www.pewclimate.org/document.cfm?documentID=276
Piani C,Frame DJ, Stainforth DA, Allen MR (2005) Constraints on climate change from a multi-thousand member ensemble of simulations. Geophys Res Lett 32, L23825, doi:10.1029/2005GL024452
Pörtner HO, Langenbuch M, Michaelidis B (2005) Synergistic effects of temperature extremes, hypoxia, and increases in CO2 on marine animals: from Earth history to global change. J Geophys Res 110, C09S10, doi:10.1029/2004JC002561
Pounds JA et al (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 439:161–167
Reaka-Kudla ML (1996) The global biodiversity of coral reefs: a comparison with rain forests. In: Reaka-Kudla ML, Wilson DE, Wilson EO (eds) Biodiversity II: understanding and protecting our biological resources. Joseph Henry, Washington, pp 83–108
Schneider SH, Mastrandrea MD (2005) Probabilistic assessment of “dangerous” climate and emissions pathways. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102(44):15728–15735
Sheppard CRC (2003) Predicted recurrences of mass coral mortality in the Indian Ocean. Nature 425:294–297
Shine KP, Fuglestvedt JS, Hailemariam K, Stuber N (2005) Alternatives to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases. Clim Change 68:281–302
Shirayama Y, Thornton H (2005) Effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on shallow water marine benthos. J Geophys Res 110, C09S08, doi:10.1029/2004JC002618
Smith SJ, Pitcher H, Wigley TML (2005) Future sulfur dioxide emissions. Clim Change 73:267–318
Stirling CH, Esat TM, Lambeck K, McCulloch MT (1998) Timing and duration of the last interglacial: evidence for a restricted interval of widespread coral reef growth. Earth Planet Sci Lett 160:745–762
Swart R, Robinson J, Cohen S (2003) Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options. Clim Pol 3S1:S19–S40
Thomas CD et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–147
Tonn B (2003) An equity first, risk-based framework for managing global climate change. Glob Environ Change 13:295–306
Warren R (2006) Impacts of global climate change at different annual mean global temperature increases. In: Schellnhuber HJ, Cramer W, Nakicenovic N, Wigley T, Yohe G (eds) Avoiding dangerous climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 93–131
White A, Melvin GRC, Friend AD (1999) Climate change impacts on ecosystem and the terrestrial carbon sink: a new assessment. Glob Environ Change 9:S21–S30
Wigley TML (2004) Choosing a stabilization target for CO2. Clim Change 67:1–11
Wigley TML, Raper SCB (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science 293:451–454
Wigley TML, Ammann CM, Santer BD, Raper SCB (2005) The effect of climate sensitivity on the response to volcanic forcing. J Geophys Res 110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005557
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Harvey, L.D.D. Dangerous anthropogenic interference, dangerous climatic change, and harmful climatic change: non-trivial distinctions with significant policy implications. Climatic Change 82, 1–25 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9183-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9183-6