Abstract
The choice of stabilization target for CO2 concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’; the forcings that might arise from non-CO2 gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO2 concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO2 gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.
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Wigley, T.M.L. Choosing a Stabilization Target for CO2. Climatic Change 67, 1–11 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-3086-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-004-3086-1