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Assessing range re-expansion and recolonization of human-impacted landscapes by threatened species: a case study of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Italy

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Abstract

Detecting and understanding recoveries of threatened species from past and recent presence/absence data is essential to improving conservation efforts. However, false positive trends may be reported because of false absences in past data, therefore appropriate testing is needed. We tested an expansion/recolonization of the otter (Lutra lutra) populations in Italy from a fragmented distribution outlined in the 1984–1985 period by using Monte Carlo simulations. Land-use changes, human depopulation and decrease in influence of anthropogenic features were investigated as potential drivers of recolonization by using GIS modeling. A survey of the entire Italian range of the otter, conducted in 2002–2004, recorded a 2.2-fold increase in the proportion of occupied 10-km squares and 49 local colonizations. The range size and proportion of urban land-use in the 1984–1985 distribution were smaller (P < 0.05) than those derived from simulated surveys based on 49 random false absences versus colonization events. The distribution range expanded southward and nearly reached the southern margins of the peninsula. Recolonization of moderately urbanized landscapes was not accompanied by human depopulation. According to partial logistic regressions, the pure effect of urban land proportion and industry proximity on otter occurrence probability declined by about 48%, suggesting a decreased impact on the stream habitat. Conversely, natural factors, increased in importance by about 116%. The absence of a significant northward expansion in the 20 year period suggests that northward habitat restoration should be planned to encourage further recolonization. On the other hand, potential urban threats in the newly occupied landscapes should be controlled.

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Abbreviations

UTM:

Universal transverse mercator

CLC:

Corine land cover

AV:

Anthropogenic variable

NV:

Natural variable

DEM:

Digital elevation model

GIS:

Geographic information system

SEE:

Supposed extinction event

SCE:

Supposed colonization event

GLM:

Generalized linear model

GAM:

Generalized additive model

AIC:

Akaike’s information criterion

AUC:

Area under the relative operating characteristic curve

OP:

Organochlorine pesticide

PCB:

Polychlorinated Biphenyl

POP:

Persistent organic pollutant

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Acknowledgments

We thank Marilena Marconi and Valentina Bove who helped us in collecting the field data (2002–2004 survey). The 2002–2004 survey was part of the PhD research undertaken by M. Marcelli at the University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’. Data collection was conducted within a larger project on otter conservation in Southern Italy funded by the Cilento and Vallo di Diano National Park (Vallo della Lucania) and supervised by Luigi Boitani (Dept. of Animal and Human Biology, University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’). Mark Burgman kindly provided an R code to calculate the α-hulls. Thanks are also due to an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments on the manuscript.

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    Manlio Marcelli & Romina Fusillo

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Marcelli, M., Fusillo, R. Assessing range re-expansion and recolonization of human-impacted landscapes by threatened species: a case study of the otter (Lutra lutra) in Italy. Biodivers Conserv 18, 2941–2959 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-009-9618-2

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