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Seismic assessment of masonry buildings accounting for limited knowledge on materials by Bayesian updating

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Abstract

Several building codes propose methodologies to account for epistemic uncertainties in the seismic assessment of masonry buildings by selecting a knowledge level and reducing material strengths by means of the associated value of the confidence factor. Previous works showed that, in the case of masonry structures, this approach has various limitations, such as the lack of proper consideration of experimental tests performed. This article focuses on the issue of imperfect knowledge on material properties of existing masonry buildings and proposes a probabilistic methodology for the assessment, based on Bayesian updating of mechanical properties. The use of a Bayesian approach allows to update the values of the material properties assumed a priori as knowledge on the building increases, by taking into account all the experimental information gathered during the assessment process. A large number of simulated assessments is carried out and the values of the confidence factors on material properties are defined through the comparison between the obtained results and those of the reference structure, assumed to be perfectly known. These factors are useful in a more general framework for the assessment of masonry buildings accounting for different sources of uncertainty.

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Acknowledgments

This work was mainly carried out within different EUCENTRE Executive Projects in the years 2009–2014, funded by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. The authors would also like to acknowledge the contribution of Prof. Federico Bassetti, who greatly helped in the mathematical derivation of the methodology, Marco Tondelli and Giulia Grecchi, who contributed to the initial phases of the work. Finally, the manuscript has significantly benefited from the very useful suggestions of two anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. UME School, IUSS Pavia, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy

    S. Bracchi

  2. European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, via Ferrata 1, Pavia, Italy

    M. Rota, G. Magenes & A. Penna

  3. Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Pavia, via Ferrata 3, Pavia, Italy

    G. Magenes & A. Penna

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  1. S. Bracchi
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  2. M. Rota
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Correspondence to S. Bracchi.

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Bracchi, S., Rota, M., Magenes, G. et al. Seismic assessment of masonry buildings accounting for limited knowledge on materials by Bayesian updating. Bull Earthquake Eng 14, 2273–2297 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9905-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-9905-8

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