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Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach

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Abstract

Ongoing monitoring in the Swiss Alps has shown that Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) has suffered a significant population decrease over the last decade and climate change has been proposed as a potential cause. In this study, we investigate the response of this high alpine grouse species to rapid climate change. We address a problem often neglected in macro-ecological studies on species distribution: scale-dependency of distribution models. The models are based on empirical field data and on environmental databases for large-scale models. The implementation of several statistical modelling approaches, external validation strategies and the implementation of a recent study on regional climate change in Switzerland ensure robust predictions of future range shifts. Our results demonstrate that, on the territory level, variables depicting vegetation, heterogeneity of local topography and habitat structure have greatest explanatory power. In contrast at the meso-scale and macro-scale (with grain sizes of 1 and 100 km2, respectively), bioclimatic and land cover-related variables play a prominent role. The models predict that, based on increasing temperatures during the breeding season, potential habitat will decrease by up to two-thirds until the year 2070. At the same time, a shift of potential habitat towards the mountain tops is predicted. The multi-scale approach highlights the true extent of potential habitat for this species with its patchy distribution in steep terrain. The small-scale analysis pinpoints the key habitat areas within the extensive areas of suitable habitat predicted by models on large grain sizes and in this way reveals sub-grid variability. Our results can facilitate the adaptation of species conservation strategies to a quickly changing environment.

Zusammenfassung

Habitat auf den Gipfeln der Berge: Wie lange kann das Alpenschneehuhn ( Lagopus muta helvetica ) raschen Klimawandel in den Schweizer Alpen überleben? Ein mehrskaliger Ansatz.

Fortlaufendes Monitoring hat gezeigt, dass innerhalb des letzten Jahrzehnts die Population des Alpenschneehuhns (Lagopus muta helvetica) in den Schweizer Alpen stark abgenommen hat. Als mögliche Ursache kommt der Klimawandel in Betracht. In dieser Studie untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen raschen Klimawandels auf dieses hochalpine Raufußhuhn. Dabei setzten wir uns mit einem Aspekt auseinander, der in vielen makroökologischen Studien oft vernachlässigt wird: die Skalenabhängigkeit von Habitatmodellen. Die Modelle basieren auf empirischen Felddaten und auf Umweltdatenbanken für die großskaligen Modelle. Die Anwendung mehrerer, statistischer Modelle, externe Validierung und die Daten einer aktuellen Studie zum Klimawandel in der Schweiz legen die Grundlage für robuste Vorhersagen der künftigen Verbreitung des Alpenschneehuhns. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auf der Revierskala Variablen, die die Vegetation, die lokale Topographie und Habitatstruktur beschreiben die größte Vorhersagekraft haben. Im Gegensatz dazu spielen auf der Mesoskala (Korngröße 1 km2) und Makroskala (Korngröße 100 km2) bioklimatische und land cover Variablen die herausragende Rolle. Die Modelle sagen vorher, dass sich allein aufgrund einer erhöhten Durchschnittstemperatur während der Brutzeit das potenzielle Habitat bis zum Jahre 2070 um bis zu zwei Drittel verringern wird. Zudem findet eine Verschiebung in Richtung Gebirgsgipfel statt. Insbesondere für Arten, die steiles Terrain bewohnen und lückenhafte Verbreitung aufweisen wie das Alpenschneehuhn, verdeutlicht die Analyse auf mehreren Skalen das wirkliche Ausmaß des potenziellen Habitats. So zeigt die feinskalige Analyse die bevorzugten Gebiete innerhalb der großräumigen Gebiete auf, welche die Modelle auf den großen Skalen vorhersagen und verdeutlicht auf diese Weise die Variabilität innerhalb der Rasterzellen. Unsere Ergebnisse können einen Beitrag zur Anpassung der Naturschutzstrategien zur Arterhaltung in einer sich schnell verändernden Umwelt leisten.

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Acknowledgments

This study has been partly funded by the German Academic Foreign Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation. Furthermore, we owe a big thank you to all collaborators who contributed to complete the Swiss breeding bird atlas and to the reviewers who helped to improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Biocentre Klein Flottbek (Department Biodiversity of Plants), University of Hamburg, Ohnhorststr. 18, 22609, Hamburg, Germany

    Rasmus Revermann

  2. Swiss Ornithological Institute, 6204, Sempach, Switzerland

    Hans Schmid, Niklaus Zbinden & Reto Spaar

  3. Technische Universität München, Landscape Ecology, 85354, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany

    Boris Schröder

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  1. Rasmus Revermann
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  2. Hans Schmid
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  3. Niklaus Zbinden
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Correspondence to Rasmus Revermann.

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Communicated by T. Gottschalk.

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Revermann, R., Schmid, H., Zbinden, N. et al. Habitat at the mountain tops: how long can Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) survive rapid climate change in the Swiss Alps? A multi-scale approach. J Ornithol 153, 891–905 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10336-012-0819-1

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