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Numerical assessments of the impacts of climate change on regional groundwater systems in a paddy-dominated alluvial fan

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Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on groundwater levels is important for sustainable groundwater use. This study examined the Tedori River alluvial fan in Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan, where paddy fields occupy 45 % of the total area. A regional groundwater flow model simulated future groundwater levels in response to 38 climate change projections generated for each of three GCMs, using three GHG emission scenarios with the ELPIS-JP datasets. The numerical groundwater flow model consisted of a 1-D unsaturated water flow model (HYDRUS-1D) for estimating groundwater recharge and a 3-D groundwater flow model (MODFLOW). Variable parameters consisted of daily air temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, which influence groundwater through infiltration, evapotranspiration, snowfall, and snowmelt. Groundwater levels had both decreasing and increasing trends, depending on climate change. There were more decreasing than increasing trends, and the maximum groundwater drawdown during 2010–2090 was ~1 m. Groundwater level was most sensitive to change in rate of precipitation during the non-irrigation period. Variations of relatively low-intensity precipitation days, when daily precipitation was <10 mm, had an effect on groundwater level. These results contribute to development of adaptive and sustainable groundwater managements (e.g. land use management and pumping strategies) in the future.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by a subsidy from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan entitled Investigation of the normal hydrologic cycle in the Tedori River alluvial fan areas as the core of irrigation water. The authors thank the Ishikawa Prefectural government and Ishikawa Prefectural University for providing statistical datasets. This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24248041.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University, 4-101 Koyama-cho Minami, Tottori, 680-8550, Japan

    Yumi Yoshioka

  2. Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake-cho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8502, Japan

    Kimihito Nakamura & Shigeto Kawashima

  3. Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Osaka Prefecture University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Naka-ku, Sakai, Osaka, 599-8531, Japan

    Haruhiko Horino

Authors
  1. Yumi Yoshioka
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  2. Kimihito Nakamura
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  3. Haruhiko Horino
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  4. Shigeto Kawashima
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Correspondence to Yumi Yoshioka.

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Yoshioka, Y., Nakamura, K., Horino, H. et al. Numerical assessments of the impacts of climate change on regional groundwater systems in a paddy-dominated alluvial fan. Paddy Water Environ 14, 93–103 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-015-0481-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-015-0481-3

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