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A method for predicting the probability of business network profitability

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Abstract

In the design phase of business collaboration, it is desirable to be able to predict the profitability of the business-to-be. Therefore, techniques to assess qualities such as costs, revenues, risks, and profitability have been previously proposed. However, they do not allow the modeler to properly manage uncertainty with respect to the design of the considered business collaboration. In many real collaboration projects today, uncertainty regarding the business’ present or future characteristics is so significant that ignoring it becomes problematic. In this paper, we propose an approach based on the predictive, probabilistic architecture modeling framework (P2AMF), capable of advanced and probabilistically sound reasoning about profitability risks. The P2AMF-based approach for profitability risk prediction is also based on the e3-value modeling language and on the object constraint language. The paper introduces the prediction and modeling approach, and a supporting software tool. The use of the approach is illustrated by means of a case study originated from the Stockholm Royal Seaport smart city project.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Industrial Information and Control Systems, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Stockholm, Sweden

    Pontus Johnson & Margus Välja

  2. Centre for Telematics and Information Technology, University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Maria Eugenia Iacob & Marten van Sinderen

  3. Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Christer Magnusson & Tobias Ladhe

Authors
  1. Pontus Johnson
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  2. Maria Eugenia Iacob
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  3. Margus Välja
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  4. Marten van Sinderen
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  5. Christer Magnusson
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  6. Tobias Ladhe
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Margus Välja.

Additional information

The current paper is an extended version of a paper previously published in LNBIP 144. The paper includes a broader literature review, addressing data elicitation, and an analysis of a real life business proposition (Proceedings of the 5th International IFIP Working Conference on Enterprise Interoperability, IWEI 2013).

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Johnson, P., Iacob, M.E., Välja, M. et al. A method for predicting the probability of business network profitability. Inf Syst E-Bus Manage 12, 567–593 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-014-0237-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10257-014-0237-4

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