Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Seasonal to decadal forcing of high water level percentiles in the German Bight throughout the last century

  • Published:
Ocean Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

For the purpose of coastal planning and management, especially under changing climatic conditions, enhanced knowledge about the evolution of extreme sea levels in the past, present, and future is required. This paper presents statistical analyses of high seasonal water level percentiles of 13 tide gauges in the German Bight, spanning over a period of up to 109 years throughout the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Seasonal and annual high percentile time series of water levels were investigated in comparison to the mean sea level (MSL) for changes on seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal timescales. While throughout the first half of the twentieth century extreme water levels generally followed changes in MSL, during the second half of the century, linear extreme sea level trends exceeded those in MSL in the order of 9–64 cm per century. The largest, although insignificant, contribution to the magnitude of these trends occurs in the winter season (January to March), while smaller but, due to the generally lower atmospheric variability, significant changes are observed during spring (April to June). The observed multi-decadal trends are generally in good agreement with multi-decadal trends in the corresponding percentiles of local zonal surface winds. Only small parts of the trends remain unexplained. It is suggested that these remaining trends result from modifications in the local tidal regime. For the aspects of coastal planning, the findings clarify that in the German Bight, in addition to changes in MSL, potential changes in storminess and in the tidal regime significantly contribute to the development of extreme water levels. Since these factors have influenced the characteristic of extremes throughout the recent past, they also have to be taken into account when estimating design water levels for, e.g., dikes (in a warming climate) under changing greenhouse gas emissions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abeysirigunawardena DS, Walker IJ (2008) Sea-level responses to climatic variability and change in Northern British Columbia. Atmosphere-Ocean 46:277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandersson H, Schmith T, Iden K, Tuomenvirta H (1998) Long-term variations of the storm climate over NW Europe. Glob Atmos Ocean Syst 6(2):97–120

    Google Scholar 

  • Alexandersson H, Tuomenvirta H, Schmith T, Iden K (2000) Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. Clim Res 14:71–73. doi:10.3354/cr014071

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bindoff NL, Willebrand J, Artale V, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Gulev S, Hanawa K, Le Quéré C, Levitus S, Nojiri Y, Shum CK, Talley LD, Unnikrishnan A (2007) Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 385–432

  • Bork I, Dick S, Kleine S, Navarra SM (2007) Tsunami—a study regarding the North Sea coast. Berichte des Bundesamtes für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie Nr. 41/2007, Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH), Hamburg und Rostock (in German)

  • Bromirski PD, Flick RE, Cayan DR (2003) Storminess variability along the California Coast: 1858–2000. J Clim 16(6):982–993. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0982:SVATCC>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  • BSH (2009) Naturverhältnisse. Nordsee und englischer Kanal: Teil B des Seehandbuchs für die Nordsee und den Kanal. Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie, Hamburg

  • Cayan DR, Bromirski PD, Hayhoe K, Tyree M, Dettinger MD, Flick RE (2008) Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast. Clim Chang 87(suppl 1):57–73. doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GB, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD et al (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 137:1–28

    Google Scholar 

  • Dangendorf S, Wahl T, Hein H, Jensen J, Mai S, Mudersbach C (2012) Mean sea level variability and influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on long-term trends in the German Bight. Water 4(1):170–195. doi:10.3390/w4010170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dangendorf S, Muderbach C, Wahl T, Jensen J (2013) Characteristics of intra-, inter-annual and decadal variability and the role of meteorological forcing: the long record of Cuxhaven. Ocean Dyn 63(2–3):209–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Geng Q, Sugi M (2003) Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Clim 14:3863–3873. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<3863:VOTNAC>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  • Haigh I, Nicholls R, Wells N (2011) Rising sea levels in the English Channel 1900 to 2100. Proceedings of the ICE—Maritime Engineering 164(2):81–92. doi:10.1680/maen.2011.164.2.81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunter J (2010) Estimating sea-level extremes under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. Clim Chang 99:331–350. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9671-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269:676–679. doi:10.1126/science.269.5224.676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IKÜS (2008) Aufbau eines integrierten Höhenüberwachungssystems in Küstenregionen durch Kombination höhenrelevanter Sensorik (final report). http://tudresden.de/die_tu_dresden/fakultaeten/fakultaet_forst_geo_und_hydrowissenschaften/fachrichtung_geowissenschaften/gi/gg/veroeffentlichungen/BMBF03KIS055-58.pdf

  • IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

  • Jensen J, Mügge HE, Schönfeld W (1992) Analyse der Wasserstandsentwicklung und Tidedynamik in der Deutschen Bucht. Die Küste 53:211–275 (in German)

    Google Scholar 

  • Jensen J, Mudersbach C (2007) Zeitliche Änderungen in den Wasserstandszeitreihen an den Deutschen Küsten. In: Glaser R, Schenk W, Vogt J, Wießner R, Zepp H (eds) Berichte zur deutschen Landeskunde 81:99–112. Leipzig, Germany (in German)

  • Krueger O, Schenk F, Feser F, Weisse R (2013) Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations. J Clim 26:868–874. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00309.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Lehmann A, Getzlaff K, Harlaß J (2011) Detailed assessment of climate variability in the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009. Clim Res 46:185–196. doi:10.3354/cr00876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marcos M, Tsimplis MN, Shaw AGP (2009) Sea level extremes in southern Europe. J Geophys Res 114:C01007. doi:10.1029/2008JC004912

  • McCabe G, Clark M, Serreze M (2001) Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity. J Clim 14:2763–2768. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2763:TINHSC>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  • Menéndez M, Woodworth PL (2010) Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge dataset. J Geophys Res Oceans 115:C10011. doi:10.1029/2009JC005997

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mudersbach C, Jensen J (2010) Nonstationary extreme value analysis of annual maximum water levels for designing coastal structures on the German North Sea coastline. J Flood Risk Management 3(1):52–62. doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01054.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura H (1992) Midwinter suppression of baroclinic wave activity in the Pacific. J Atmos Sci 49:1629–1642. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1992)049<1629:MSOBWA>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ (2006) Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century. Philos Trans R Soc A 364(1841):1073–1095. doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Cazenave A (2010) Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones. Science 328(5985):1517–1520. doi:10.1126/science.1185782

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pawlowicz R, Beardsley B, Lentz S (2002) Classical tidal harmonic analysis including error estimates in MATLAB using T_TIDE. Comput Geosci 28(8):929–937. doi:10.1016/S0098-3004(02)00013-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pinto J-G, Zacharias S, Fink AH, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2009) Factors contributing to the development of extreme North Atlantic cyclones and their relationship with the NAO. Clim Dyn 32:711–737. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0396-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Reeve D (2010) Risk and reliability coastal and hydraulic engineering. Spon Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmidt H, von Storch H (1993) German Bight storm analysed. Nature 365:791. doi:10.1038/365791a0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siegismund F, Schrum C (2001) Decadal changes in the wind forcing over the North Sea. Clim Res 18:39–45. doi:10.3354/cr018039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth K, Jones P, Ambenje R, Bojariu R, Easterling D, Tank AK, Parker D, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick J, Rusticucci M et al (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis MN, Woolf DK, Osborn TJ, Wakelin S, Wolf J, Flather R, Shaw AGP, Woodworth PL, Challenor P, Blackmen D et al (2005) Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and Northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability. Philos Trans R Soc A 363:1329–1358. doi:10.1098/rsta.2005.1571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsimplis MN, Shaw AGP (2010) Seasonal sea level extremes in the Mediterranean Sea and at the Atlantic European coasts. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:1457–1475. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1457-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H, Woth K (2008) Storm surges, perspectives and options. Sustain Sci 3(1):33–43. doi:10.1007/s11625-008-0044-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahl T, Jensen J, Frank T (2010) On analysing sea level rise in the German Bight since 1844. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 10:171–179. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-171-2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wahl T, Jensen J, Frank T, Haigh I (2011) Improved estimates of mean sea level changes in the German Bight over the last 166 years. Ocean Dyn 61(5):701–715. doi:10.1007/s10236-011-0383-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wakelin SL, Woodworth PL, Flather RA, Williams JA (2003) Sea-level dependence on the NAO over the NW European continental shelf. Geophys Res Lett 30(7):56:1–56:4. doi:10.1029/2003GL01704

  • Wang XL, Swail VR, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Feng Y (2008) Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and ocean wave heights. Clim Dyn 32:189–203. doi:10.1007/ s00382-008-0442-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XL, Wan H, Zwiers FW, Swail VR, Compo GP, Allan RJ, Vose RS, Jourdain S, Yin X (2011) Trends and low-frequency variability of storminess over Western Europe, 1878–2007. Clim Dyn 37:2355–2371. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1107-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • WASA Group (1998) Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic? Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:741–760. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0741:CWASIT>2.0.CO;2

    Google Scholar 

  • Weisse R, von Storch H (2010) Marine climate and climate change, storms, wind waves and storm surges. Praxis Publishing, Chichester, UK

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • De Winter RC, Sterl A, de Vries JW, Weber SL, Ruessink G (2012) The effect of climate change on extreme wave heights in front of the Dutch coast. Ocean Dyn 62(8):1139–1152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Winter RC, Sterl A, Ruessink BG (2013) Wind extremes in the North Sea Basin under climate change: an ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs. J Geophys Res 118:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodworth PL, Blackman DL (2004) Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. J Clim 17(6):1190–1197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodworth PL, Flather RA, Williams JA, Wakelin SL, Jevrejeva S (2007) The dependence of UK extreme sea levels and storm surges on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Cont Shelf Res 27(1):935–946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodworth PL, Menéndez M, Gehrels WR (2011) Evidence for century-timescale acceleration in mean sea levels and for recent changes in extreme sea levels. Surv Geophys 32:603–618

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study was done within the KLIWAS cooperation. KLIWAS is a research program of the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development (BMVBS). We highly acknowledge our colleagues Birgit Klein, Katharina Bülow, Gudrun Rosenhagen, Jens Möller, and Birger Tinz for the fruitful discussions. We are further grateful to the comments of one anonymous reviewer.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Institute for Water and Environment (FWU), University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Str. 9-11, 57076, Siegen, Germany

    Sönke Dangendorf, Christoph Mudersbach & Jürgen Jensen

  2. German Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH), Bernhardt-Nocht-Str. 78, 20359, Hamburg, Germany

    Ganske Anette & Hartmut Heinrich

Authors
  1. Sönke Dangendorf
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christoph Mudersbach
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Jürgen Jensen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ganske Anette
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Hartmut Heinrich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sönke Dangendorf.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Birgit Andrea Klein

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dangendorf, S., Mudersbach, C., Jensen, J. et al. Seasonal to decadal forcing of high water level percentiles in the German Bight throughout the last century. Ocean Dynamics 63, 533–548 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0614-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-013-0614-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation