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Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

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Population Ecology

An Erratum to this article was published on 09 December 2014

Abstract

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.

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Acknowledgments

Funding for this project was provided by the California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the California Deer Association and the Mendocino County Blacktail Association. TDF acknowledges support from the Switzer foundation. We thank the numerous students, volunteers, and scientific aides for their invaluable contributions to fieldwork. Sarah Cubaynes, Olivier Gimenez and Shirley Pledger provided helpful comments on previous drafts of this manuscript. Comments from 2 anonymous reviewers greatly improved the final manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA, 95616, USA

    Lucile Marescot, Tavis D. Forrester & Heiko U. Wittmer

  2. Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological Park, 1500 Remount Rd, Front Royal, VA, 22630, USA

    Tavis D. Forrester

  3. California Department of Fish and Wildlife, Large Mammal Conservation Program, 1812 9th Street, Sacramento, CA, 95811, USA

    David S. Casady

  4. School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, PO Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand

    Heiko U. Wittmer

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  1. Lucile Marescot
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  2. Tavis D. Forrester
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Correspondence to Heiko U. Wittmer.

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Marescot, L., Forrester, T.D., Casady, D.S. et al. Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer. Popul Ecol 57, 185–197 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-014-0456-z

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