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Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe

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Abstract

Assessments of land-system change have dominantly focused on conversions among broad land-use categories, whereas intensity changes within these categories have received less attention. Considering that both modes of land change typically result in diverse patterns and trajectories of land-system change, there is a need to develop approaches to reduce this complexity. Using Europe as a case study, we applied a clustering approach based on self-organising maps and 12 land-use indicators to map (1) land-system archetypes for the year 2006, defined as characteristic patterns of land-use extent and intensity, and (2) archetypical change trajectories, defined as characteristic changes in these indicators between 1990 and 2006. Our analysis identified 15 land-system archetypes, with low-intensity archetypes dominating (ca. 55 % coverage) followed by high-intensity archetypes (ca. 26 %). In terms of change, we identified 17 archetypical change trajectories, clustered in four broad categories. Stable land systems were most widespread (ca. 40 % of the EU27), followed by land systems characterised by land-use conversions (ca. 26 %), de-intensification trends (ca. 18 %), and intensification trends (ca. 15 %). Intensively used and intensifying land systems were particularly widespread in Western Europe, whereas low-intensity and de-intensifying land systems dominated in Europe’s east. Comparing our archetypes with environmental and socio-economic factors revealed that good accessibility and favourable topographic, climatic, and soil conditions characterised intensively managed areas. Intensification was also most common in these areas, suggesting an ongoing polarisation of intensification in favourable areas and de-intensification and abandonment trends in more marginal areas. By providing spatially and thematically improved maps of land-use patterns and changes therein, our archetypes could serve as useful inputs for more detailed assessments of ecosystem service demand and supply, as well as explorations of land-system change trade-offs, especially with regard to land-use intensity. Further, they could serve useful for identifying regions within which similar policy tools could be valuable to develop regionalised, context-specific land-management policies to steer European land systems onto desired pathways.

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Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the European Commission (Projects VOLANTE, No. 265104, HERCULES, No. 603447, and LUISE, No. 263522) and by the Einstein Foundation Berlin (EJF-2011-76). We would like to thank Anette Reenberg, Jonas Østergaard Nielsen, and Patrick Hostert for fruitful discussions and comments on earlier manuscript drafts. We also would like to thank the editor-in-chief W. Cramer and two anonymous reviewers for thorough and very constructive comments. This research contributes to the Global Land Project (www.globallandproject.org).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany

    Christian Levers, Daniel Müller & Tobias Kuemmerle

  2. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120, Halle (Saale), Germany

    Daniel Müller

  3. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany

    Daniel Müller, Helmut Haberl & Tobias Kuemmerle

  4. Institute of Social Ecology Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070, Vienna, Graz, Austria

    Karlheinz Erb, Helmut Haberl & Christoph Plutzar

  5. Section of Geography, Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, 1350, Copenhagen K, Denmark

    Martin Rudbeck Jepsen

  6. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, Scotland, UK

    Marc J. Metzger

  7. Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Louis Pasteur 3, 1348, Louvain-La-Neuve, Belgium

    Patrick Meyfroidt

  8. Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS, Rue d’Egmont 5, 1000, Brussels, Belgium

    Patrick Meyfroidt

  9. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958, Frederiksberg C, Denmark

    Tobias Plieninger

  10. Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Julia Stürck & Peter H. Verburg

  11. Sustainability and Climate Change Programme, European Forest Institute (EFI), Yliopistokatu 6, 80100, Joensuu, Finland

    Pieter J. Verkerk

Authors
  1. Christian Levers
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  2. Daniel Müller
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  3. Karlheinz Erb
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  4. Helmut Haberl
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  5. Martin Rudbeck Jepsen
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  6. Marc J. Metzger
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  7. Patrick Meyfroidt
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  8. Tobias Plieninger
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  9. Christoph Plutzar
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  10. Julia Stürck
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  11. Peter H. Verburg
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  12. Pieter J. Verkerk
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  13. Tobias Kuemmerle
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christian Levers.

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Levers, C., Müller, D., Erb, K. et al. Archetypical patterns and trajectories of land systems in Europe. Reg Environ Change 18, 715–732 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0907-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0907-x

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