Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting Ecosystem Wide Impacts of Wallaby Management Using a Fuzzy Cognitive Map

  • Published:
Ecosystems Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

At Booderee National Park, south-eastern Australia, the intensive control of the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) resulted in a major increase in the abundance of a browsing macropod, the swamp wallaby (Wallabia bicolor). This has led to a major decrease in the abundance and biomass of a range of palatable plant species. Fox control has also started a trophic cascade that has resulted in a decline in the abundance of the greater glider (Petauroides volans) a folivorous arboreal marsupial, mediated either through increased predation by owls or increased competition with common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula). We identified five potential scenarios for managing the effects of over-abundant swamp wallabies on the ecosystem as a whole. These were (1) the present scenario of continued intensive fox control and four possible scenarios to redress the problem: (2) ceasing fox control; (3) intensive fox control and intensive wallaby control; (4) introducing dingoes and ceasing fox control; and (5) introducing dingoes and maintaining fox control. We used an ecosystem modelling approach based on a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) to predict relative estimates of abundance for each scenario for a wide range of taxa in the Booderee National Park ecosystem likely to be affected by each scenario. We addressed uncertainty in our knowledge of the interactions between species by creating alternative models of the system by removing one or more of the uncertain links between species and varying the strength of the remaining interactions in the FCM and aggregated predictions from 100,000 models to estimate the effect of uncertainty on the predictions from our FCM model. In comparison with the current scenario of intensive fox control, scenario 3 had the greatest likelihood of improving the status of palatable plants. Scenarios 2 and 4 reduced the abundance of a range of medium-sized mammals but improved the status of greater gliders, whereas the predicted effects of scenario 5 were uncertain. The FCM modelling approach developed here provided a valuable tool for managers to learn about the potential ecosystem wide effects of management actions while incorporating the likely effects of uncertain knowledge on system outcomes.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
Figure 7
Figure 8
Figure 9
Figure 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allombert S, Stockton S, Martin J-L. 2005. Natural experiment on the impact of over-abundant deer on forest invertebrates. Conserv Biol 19:1917–29.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anderson EM. 2007. Changes in bird communities and willow habitats associated with fed Elk. The Wilson J Ornithol 119:400–9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Balfour D, Dublin HT, Fennessy J, Gibson D, Niskanen L, Whyte IJ. 2007. Review of options for managing the impacts of locally over-abundant African elephants. Gland: IUCN.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bergstrom DM, Lucieer A, Kiefer K, Wasley J, Belbin L, Pedersen TK, Chown SL. 2009. Indirect effects of invasive species removal devastate World Heritage Island. J Appl Ecol 46:73–81.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Caughley G. 1983. Dynamics of large mammals and their relevance to culling. In: Owen-Smith RN, Ed. Management of large mammals in African conservation areas. Pretoria: HAUM Publishers. p 115–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coulson G. 1998. Management of over-abundant macropods—are there conservation benefits? In: Austin A, Cowan P, Eds. Managing marsupial abundance for conservation benefits. issues in marsupial conservation and management. Occasional Papers of the Marsupial CRC No. 1, Sydney. pp 37–48.

  • Courchamp F, Langlais M, Sugihara G. 1999. Cats protecting birds: modelling the mesopredator release effect. J Anim Ecol 66:282–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dambacher JM, Ramos-Jiliberto R. 2007. Understanding and predicting effects of modified interactions through a qualitative analysis of community structure. Q Rev Biol 82:227–50.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Dexter N, Meek P, Moore S, Hudson M, Richardson H. 2007. Population responses of small and medium sized mammals to fox control at Jervis Bay, south-eastern Australia. Pac Conserv Biol 13:283–92.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dexter N, Murray A. 2009. The impact of fox control on the relative abundance of forest mammals in East-Gippsland. Victoria Wildl Res 36:252–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dexter N, Hudson M, Carter T, MacGregor C. 2011. Habitat dependent population regulation in an irrupting population of long-nosed bandicoots (Perameles nasuta). Aust Ecol 36:745–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ford HA, Walters JR, Cooper CB, Debus SJS, Doerr VAJ. 2009. Extinction debt or habitat change?—ongoing losses of woodland birds in north-eastern New South Wales. Austral Biol Conserv 142:3182–90.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS, Leggett WC. 2005. Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308:1621–3.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gibbons P, Lindenmayer DB. 2002. Tree hollows and wildlife conservation in Australia. Melbourne: CSIRO Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glen AS, Dickman CR, Soulé ME, Mackey BG. 2007. Evaluating the role of the dingo as a trophic regulator in Australian ecosystems. Austral Ecol 32:492–501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hebblewhite M, White CA, Nietvelt CG, McKenzie JA, Hurd TE, Fryxwell JM, Bayley SE, Paquet PC. 2005. Human activity mediates a trophic cascade caused by wolves. Ecology 86:2135–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hobbs BF, Ludsin SA, Knight RL, Ryan PA, Biberhofer J, Ciborowski JJH. 2002. Fuzzy cognitive mapping as a tool to define management objectives for complex ecosystems. Ecol Appl 12:1548–65.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Horsley SB, Stout SL, de Calesta DS. 2003. White-tailed deer impact on the vegetation dynamics of a northern hardwood forest. Ecol Appl 13:98–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johnson CN, Van Der Wal J. 2009. Evidence that dingoes limit abundance of a mesopredator in eastern Australian forests. J Appl Ecol 46:641–6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kavanagh RP. 1988. The impact of predation by the powerful owl Ninox strenua on a population of the greater glider Petauroides volans. Austral J Ecol 13:445–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keith D, Pellow B. 2005. Effects of Javan rusa deer (Cervus timorensis) on native plant species in the Jibbon-Bundeena area, Royal National Park, New South Wales. Proc Linn Soc NSW 126:99–110.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kinnear JE, Onus ML, Sumner NR. 1998. Fox control and rock-wallaby population dynamics—II an update. Wildl Res 25:81–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kirby KJ. 2001. The impact of deer on the ground flora of British woodland. Forestry 74:219–30.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kosko B. 1986. Fuzzy cognitive maps. Int J Man Mach Stud 24:65–75.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Letnic M, Koch F, Gordon C, Crowther MS, Dickman CR. 2009. Keystone effects of an alien top predator stem extinctions of native mammals. Proc R Soc B 276:3249–56.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Letnic M, Ritchie EG, Dickman CR. 2012. Top predators as biodiversity regulators: the dingo Canis lupus dingo as a case study. Biol Rev 87:390–413. doi:10.1111/j.1469-185X.2011.00203.x.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Fischer J, Felton A, Montague-Drake R, Manning A, Simberloff D, Youngentob K, Saunders D, Blomberg S, Wilson D, Felton AM, Blackmore C, Lowe A, Bond S, Munro N, Elliott CP. 2007. The complementarity of single-species and ecosystem-oriented research in conservation research. Oikos 116:1220–6.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, MacGregor C, Welsh A, Donnelly C, Crane M, Michael D, Montague-Drake R, Cunningham RB, Brown D, Fortescue M, Dexter N, Hudson M, Gill AM. 2008a. Contrasting mammal responses to vegetation type and fire. Wildl Res 35:395–408.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Wood JT, MacGregor C, Michael DR, Cunningham RB, Crane M, Montague-Drake R, Brown D, Muntz R, Driscoll DA. 2008b. How predictable are reptile responses to wildfire? Oikos 117:1086–97.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Wood JT, Cunningham RB, MacGregor C, Crane M, Michael D, Montague-Drake R, Brown D, Muntz R, Gill M. 2008c. Testing hypotheses associated with bird responses to wildfire. Ecol App 18:1967–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, MacGregor C, Wood JT, Cunningham RB, Crane M, Michael D, Montague-Drake R, Brown D, Fortescue M, Dexter N, Hudson M, Gill M. 2009. What factors influence rapid post-fire site re-occupancy? A case study of the endangered Eastern Bristlebird in eastern Australia. Int J Wildland Fire 18:84–95.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Likens GE, Franklin JF. 2010a. Rapid responses to facilitate ecological discoveries from major disturbances. Front Ecol Environ 8:527–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Likens GE, Krebs CJ, Hobbs RJ. 2010b. Improved probability of detection of ecological “surprises”. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:21957–62.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Lindenmayer DB, Wood JT, McBurney L, MacGregor C, Youngentob K, Banks SC. 2011. How to make a common species rare: a case against conservation complacency. Biol Conserv 144:1663–72.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindström ER, Andrén H, Angelstam P, Cederlund G, Hörnfeldt B, Jäderberg L, Lemnell P-A, Martinsson B, Sköld K, Swenson JE. 1994. Disease reveals the predator: sarcoptic mange, red fox predation, and prey populations. Ecology 75:1042–9.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maguire G, Stojanovic D, Weston MA. 2009. Conditioned taste aversion reduces fox depredation on model eggs on beaches. Wildl Res 36:702–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McLeod, S. 2010. Is kangaroo management justified and humane? What are the concerns and how can they be addressed. In: Proceedings of the RSPCA Australia Scientific Seminar Convergence or conflict: animal welfare in wildlife management and conservation.

  • Mitchell BD, Banks PB. 2005. Do wild dogs exclude foxes? Evidence for competition from dietary and spatial overlaps. Austral Ecol 30:581–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montaño-Moctezuma G, Li HW, Rossignol PA. 2007. Alternative community structures in a kelp-urchin community: a qualitative modeling approach. Ecol Model 205:343–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murdoch WW. 1969. Switching in general predators: experiments on predator specificity and stability of prey populations. Ecol Monogr 39:335–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nilsen EB, Milner-Gulland EJ, Schofield L, Mysterud A, Stenseth NC, Coulson T. 2007. Wolf reintroduction to Scotland: public attitudes and consequences for red deer management. Philos Trans R Soc B 274:995–1003.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pate J, Manfredo MJ, Bright AD, Tischbein G. 1996. Coloradans’ attitudes toward reintroducing the gray wolf into Colorado. Wildl Soc Bull 24:421–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pople AR, GriggGC Cairns SC, Beard LA, Alexander P. 2000. Trends in the numbers of red kangaroos and emus on either side of the South Australian dingo fence: evidence for predator regulation? Wildl Res 27:269–76.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey D, Veltman C. 2005. Predicting the effects of perturbations on ecological communities: what can qualitative models offer? J Anim Ecol 74:905–16.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey R, Norbury G. 2009. Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes. Austral Ecol 34:409–21.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raymond B, McInnes J, Dambacher JM, Way S, Bergstrom DM. 2011. Qualitative modelling of invasive species eradication on subantarctic Macquarie Island. J Appl Ecol 48:181–91.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner MJ, Hauber ME, Imber MJ, Stamp RK, Clout MN. 2007. Spatial heterogeneity of mesopredator release within an oceanic island system. Proc R Soc Lond B 104:20862–5.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ripple WJ, Larsen EJ, Renkin RA, Smith DW. 2001. Trophic cascades among wolves, elk and aspen on Yellowstone National Park’s northern range. Biol Conserv 102:227–34.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roberts MW, Dexter N, Meek PD, Hudson M, Buttemer WA. 2006. Does baiting influence the relative composition of the diet of foxes? Wildl Res 33:481–8.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robertshaw JD, Harden RH. 1986. The ecology of the dingo in north-eastern New SouthWales. IV. Prey selection by dingoes and its effect on the major prey species, the swamp wallaby, Wallabia bicolor (Desmarest). Aust Wildl Res 13:141–63.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saunders GR, Gentle MN, Dickman CR. 2010. The impacts and management of foxes Vulpes vulpes in Australia. Mammal Rev 40:181–211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott LK, Hume ID, Dickman CR. 1999. Ecology and population biology of long-nosed bandicoots (Perameles nasuta) at North Head, Sydney Harbour National Park. Wildl Res 26:805–21.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Terborgh J, Lopez L, Nunez PV, Rao M, Shahabuddin G, Orihuela G, Riveros M, Ascanio R, Adler GH, Lambert TD, Balbas L. 2001. Ecological meltdown in predator free forest fragments. Science 294:1924–5.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tilman D. 1982. Resource competition and community structure. Monographs in Population Biology 17. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Waller DM, Alverson W. 1997. The White-Tailed Deer: a Keystone Herbivore. Wildl Soc Bull 25:217–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walters CJ. 1986. Adaptive management of renewable resources. New York: McMillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wardle DA, Bardgett RD. 2004. Human-induced changes in large herbivorous mammal density: the consequences for decomposers. Front Ecol Environ 2:145–53.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zimmermann HJ. 1996. Fuzzy set theory and its applications. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank Parks Australia for funding this study. Comments from Judy West, Louise Oliver and two anonymous referees improved this study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Booderee National Park, Village Rd, Jervis Bay, Jervis Bay Territory, 2540, Australia

    Nick Dexter

  2. Department of Sustainability and Environment, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, P.O. Box 137, Heidelberg, Victoria, 3084, Australia

    David S. L. Ramsey

  3. Fenner School of Environment and Society, Environmental Research Program, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, 0200, Australia

    Christopher MacGregor & David Lindenmayer

Authors
  1. Nick Dexter
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. David S. L. Ramsey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Christopher MacGregor
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. David Lindenmayer
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nick Dexter.

Additional information

Author contributions

Nick Dexter conceived of or designed study and wrote the paper. Nick Dexter, Christopher Macgregor, and David Lindenmayer performed research. David Ramsey analyzed data and contributed new methods or models.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary material 1 (DOC 97 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dexter, N., Ramsey, D.S.L., MacGregor, C. et al. Predicting Ecosystem Wide Impacts of Wallaby Management Using a Fuzzy Cognitive Map. Ecosystems 15, 1363–1379 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9590-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-012-9590-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation