Abstract
A deficit in precipitation may impact greatly on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir storage. Among the several approaches available to investigate this phenomenon, one of the most applied is the analysis of dry spells. In this study, a non-homogeneous Poisson model has been applied to a set of high-quality daily rainfall series, recorded in southern Italy (Calabria region) during the period 1981–2010, for the stochastic analysis of dry spells. Firstly, some statistical details of the Poisson models were presented. Then, the proposed model has been applied to the analysis of long dry spells. In particular, a Monte Carlo technique was performed to reproduce the characteristics of the process. As a result, the main characteristics of the long dry spells have shown patterns clearly related to some geographical features of the study area, such as elevation and latitude. The results obtained from the stochastic modelling of the long dry spells proved that the proposed model is useful for the probability evaluation of drought, thus improving environmental planning and management.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T, Navarra A (2002) Droughts and extreme events in regional daily Italian precipitation series. Int J Climatol 22:543–558
Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T (2006) Temperature and precipitation variability in Italy in the last two centuries from homogenised instrumental time series. Int J Climatol 26:345–381
Brunetti M, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Gullà G, Nanni T, Simolo C (2012) Precipitation variability and change in the Calabria region (Italy) from a high resolution daily dataset. Int J Climatol 32:55–73
Buttafuoco G, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R (2011) Spatial and temporal patterns of the mean annual precipitation at decadal time scale in southern Italy (Calabria region). Theor Appl Climatol 105:431–444
Caloiero T (2014) Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand. Nat Hazards 72:389–404
Caloiero T (2015) Analysis of rainfall trend in New Zealand. Environ Earth Sci 73:6297–6310
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M (2011a) Precipitation change in Southern Italy linked to global scale oscillation indexes. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:1–12
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Mancini M (2011b) Trend detection of annual and seasonal rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy). Int J Climatol 31:44–56
Caloiero T, Pasqua AA, Petrucci O (2014) Damaging hydrogeological events: a procedure for the assessment of severity levels and an application to Calabria (Southern Italy). Water 6:3652–3670
Caloiero T, Buttafuoco G, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2015a) Spatial and temporal characterization of climate at regional scale using homogeneous monthly precipitation and air temperature data: an application in Calabria (southern Italy). Hydrol Res 46:629–646
Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E, Sirangelo B (2015b) Analysis of dry spells in southern Italy (Calabria). Water 7:3009–3023
Cancelliere A, Salas JD (2004) Drought length properties for periodic-stochastic hydrologic data. Water Resour Res 40:W02503
Capra A, Consoli S, Scicolone B (2013) Long-term climatic variability in Calabria and effects on drought and agrometeorological parameters. Water Resour Manag 27:601–617
Carvalho JRP, Assad ED, Evangelista SRM, Pinto HS (2013) Estimation of dry spells in three Brazilian regions—analysis of extremes. Atmos Res 132–133:12–21
Cindrić K, Pasarić Z, Gajić-Čapka M (2010) Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Croatia. Theor Appl Climatol 102:171–184
Cinlair E (1975) Introduction to stochastic processes. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs
Choi G, Collins D, Ren G, Trewin B, Baldi M, Fukuda Y, Afzaal M, Pianmana T, Gomboluudev P, Huong PT, Lias N, Kwon WT, Boo KO, Cha Y, Zhou Y (2009) Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955–2007. Int J Climatol 29:1906–1925
Dai AG, Lamb PJ, Trenberth KE, Hulme M, Jones PD, Xie PP (2004) The recent Sahel drought is real. Int J Climatol 24:1323–1331
Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Reg Environ Change 14:799–810
Deni SM, Jemain AA, Ibrahim K (2010) The best probability models for dry and wet spells in Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons. Int J Climatol 30:1194–1205
Dracup JA, Lee KS, Paulson EG (1980) On the statistical characteristics of drought events. Water Resour Res 16:289–296
Ferrari E, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R (2013) Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 114:479–494
Gong DY, Wang JA, Han H (2005) Trends of summer dry spells in China during the late twentieth century. Meteorol Atmos Phys 88:203–214
Gonzalez-Hidalgo JC, Brunetti M, de Luis M (2011) A new tool for monthly precipitation analysis in Spain: MOPREDAS database (Monthly precipitation trends December 1945–November 2005). Int J Climatol 31:715–731
Groisman PY, Knight RW (2008) Prolonged dry episodes over the conterminous United States: new tendencies emerging during the last 40 years. J Clim 21:1850–1862
Gupta V, Duckstein L (1975) Droughts as extreme distributions from a point rainfall process. Water Resour Res 11:221–228
Guttman NB, Wallis JR, Hosking JRM (1992) Spatial comparability of the Palmer drought severity index. Water Resour Bull 28:1111–1119
Güven O (1983) A simplified semiempirical approach to probabilities of extreme hydrologic droughts. Water Resour Res 19:441–453
Heinrich G, Gobiet A (2012) The future of dry and wet spells in Europe: a comprehensive study based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models. Int J Climatol 32:1951–1970
Huang J, Liu F, Xue Y, Sun S (2015) The spatial and temporal analysis of precipitation concentration and dry spell in Qinghai, northwest China. Stoch Env Res Risk A 29:1403–1411
Hulme M (2001) Climatic perspectives on SSA desiccation: 1973–1998. Glob Environ Chang 11:19–29
IPCC (2013) Summary for Policymakers. Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York
Jin F, Kitoh A, Alpert P (2010) Water cycle changes over the Mediterranean: a comparison study of a super–high–resolution global model with CMIP3. Philos T Roy Soc A 368:1–13
Kisaka MO, Mucheru–Muna M, Ngetich FK, Mugwe J, Mugendi D, Mairura F, Shisanya C, Makokha GL (2015) Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya’s Central Highlands. Theor Appl Climatol Published online. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1413-2
Kutiel H (1985) The multimodality of the rainfall course in Israel, as reflected by the distribution of dry spells. Meteorol Atmos Phys 36:15–27
Lana X, Martinez MD, Burgueño A, Serra C, Martin–Vide J, Gomez L (2006) Distributions of long dry spells in the Iberian Peninsula, years 1951–1990. Int J Climatol 14:1999–2021
Llano MP, Penalba OC (2011) A climatic analysis of dry sequences in Argentina. Int J Climatol 31:504–513
Longobardi A, Villani P (2010) Trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall time series in the Mediterranean area. Int J Climatol 30:1538–1546
Mathier L, Perreault L, Bobée B, Ashkar F (1992) The use of geometric and gamma–related distributions for frequency analysis of water deficit. Stoch Hydrol Hydraul 6:239–254
Millan J, Yevjevich V (1971) Probability of observed droughts. Hydrol Papers 50. Colorado State University Publication, Fort Collins
Mishra AK, Singh VP (2011) Drought modeling—a review. J Hydrol 403:157–175
Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2009) Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos Res 94:616–628
Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Kapsomenakis J, Douvis KC, Tselioudis G, Zerefos CS (2011) Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 11:3235–3250
Raible CC, Ziv B, Saaroni H, Wild M (2010) Winter synoptic-scale variability over the Mediterranean Basin under future climate conditions as simulated by the ECHAM5. Clim Dynam 35:473–488
Ren L, Arkin P, Smith TM, Shen SSP (2013) Global precipitation trends in 1900–2005 from a reconstruction and coupled model simulations. J Geophys Res-Atmos 118:1679–1689
Saaroni H, Ziv B, Lempert J, Gazit Y, Morin (2014) Prolonged dry spells in the Levant region: climatological–synoptic analysis. Int J Climatol 35:2223–2236
Sánchez E, Domínguez M, Romera R, López de la Franca N, Gaertner MA, Gallardo C, Castro M (2011) Regional modeling of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula for present climate and climate change conditions. Clim Change 107:625–634
Santos MA (1983) Regional droughts: a stochastic characterization. J Hydrol 66:183–211
Sarhadi A, Heydarizadeh M (2014) Regional frequency analysis and spatial pattern characterization of dry spells in Iran. Int J Climatol 34:835–848
Sayemuzzamana M, Jhab MK (2014) Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States. Atmos Res 137:183–194
Seidel DJ, Fu Q, Randel WJ, Reichler TJ (2008) Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate. Nat Geosci 1:21–24
Sen Z (1977) Run–sums of annual streamflow series. J Hydrol 35:311–324
Sen Z (1980) Regional drought and flood frequency analysis, theoretical consideration. J Hydrol 46:265–279
Serra C, Martínez MD, Lana X, Burgueño A (2013) European dry spells distributions, years 1951–2000. Theor Appl Climatol 114:531–551
Serra C, Martínez MD, Lana X, Burgueño A (2014) European dry spell regimes (1951–2000): clustering process and time trends. Atmos Res 144:151–174
Sharma T (1995) Estimation of drought severity on independent and dependent hydrologic series. Water Res Manag 11:35–49
She D, Xia J, Song J, Du H, Chen J, Wan L (2013) Spatio-temporal variation and statistical characteristic of extreme dry spell in Yellow River Basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 112:201–213
Shiau JT, Shen HW (2001) Recurrence analysis of hydrologic droughts of differing severity. J Water Resour Plan Manag 127:30–40
Sirangelo B, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2013) Statistical modelling of sequences of no-rain days. Proc. of First Annual Conference SISC, Climate change and its implications on ecosystem and society. Lecce, Italy, pp 349–360
Sirangelo B, Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E (2015) A stochastic model for the analysis of the temporal change of dry spells. Stoch Env Res Risk A 29:143–155
Soule PT (1992) Spatial patterns of drought frequency and duration in the contiguous USA based on multiple droughts event definitions. Int J Climatol 12:11–24
Tase N (1976) Area-deficit-intensity characteristics of drought. Hydrol Papers 87. Colorado State University Publication, Fort Collins
Westra S, Alexander LV, Zwiers FW (2013) Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation. J Clim 26:3904–3918
Xoplaki E, González–Rouco JF, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2004) Wet season Mediterranean precipitation variability: influence of large-scale dynamics and trends. Clim Dynam 23:63–78
Yevjevich V (1967) An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts. Hydrol Papers 23. Colorado State University Publication, Fort Collins
Zelenhasìc E, Salvai A (1987) A method of streamflow drought analysis. Water Resour Res 23:156–168
Ziv B, Saaroni H, Pargament R, Harpaz T, Alpert P (2014) Trends in rainfall regime over Israel, 1975–2010, and their relationship to large scale variability. Reg Environ Change 14:1751–1764
Zolina O, Simmer C, Belyaev K, Sergey K, Gulev S, Koltermann P (2013) Changes in the duration of European wet and dry spells during the last 60 years. J Clim 26:2022–2047
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sirangelo, B., Caloiero, T., Coscarelli, R. et al. Stochastic analysis of long dry spells in Calabria (Southern Italy). Theor Appl Climatol 127, 711–724 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1662-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1662-0