Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Sensitivity study of reference crop evapotranspiration during growing season in the West Liao River basin, China

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We have analyzed the trends of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) through the Penman–Monteith model and climate factors in the West Liao River basin using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of significant lag-1 serial correlation from the time series of the data by trend-free pre-whitening. The changing characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients and the spatial distribution during growing season are investigated, and the correlation between the sensitivity coefficients with elevation and the key climate factors by relative contribution and stepwise regression methods are evaluated. A significant overall increase in air temperature, and a significant decrease in wind speed, solar radiation, sunshine duration, relative humidity, and a slight decrease in ET0 are observed. Sensitivity analysis shows that ET0 is most sensitive to solar radiation, followed by relative humidity. In contrast, ET0 is least sensitive to the average air temperature. The sensitivity coefficients for the maximum and minimum air temperature and relative humidity have a significant negative correlation with elevation, while the coefficients for other variables are not strongly correlated with elevation. The spatial distribution of the sensitivity coefficients for wind speed and solar radiation is opposite, i.e., in regions where the sensitivity coefficients for wind speed are high; the sensitivity coefficients for solar radiation are low and vice versa. The sensitivity for relative humidity and average air temperature is region specific in the plain area. However, ET0 is most sensitive to the climate change in regions of high elevation. Wind speed is the most dominant contributor followed by solar radiation. Average air temperature contributes the least. The stepwise regression analysis indicates that wind speed is the foremost dominant variable influencing ET0. Relative contribution and stepwise regression analysis can be used to determine the main variables affecting ET0, and it also strongly supports that the aerodynamic component is the dominant factor.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allen RG, Pereira LS, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. FAO, Rome, Italy

  • Angström A (1924) Solar and terrestrial radiation. Q J R Meteorol Soc 50:121–125

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bakhtiari B, Liaghat AM (2011) Seasonal sensitivity analysis for climatic variables of ASCE-Penman-Monteith model in the semi-arid climate. J Agric Sci Technol 13:1135–1145

    Google Scholar 

  • Baumgartner A, Reichel E (1975) The world water balance: mean annual global, continental and maritime precipitation, evaporation and run-off. Elsevier Scientific Pub. Co, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Beven K (1979) A sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith actual evapotranspiration estimates. J Hydrol 44:169–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birsan MV, Molnar P, Burlamdo P, Pfaundler M (2005) Streamflow trends in Switzerland. J Hydrol 314:312–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burman R, Pcchop LO (1994) Evaporation, evapotranspiration and climatic data. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p 278

    Google Scholar 

  • Burn DH, Hesch NM (2007) Trends in evaporation for the Canadian prairies. J Hydrol 336(1–2):61–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burrough PA, McDonnel RA (1998) Principles of geographical information systems. Oxford University Press

  • Cannarozzo M, Noto LV, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Phys Chem Earth 31:1201–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cao W, Shen SH, Duan CF (2011) Quantification of the causes for reference crop Eapotranspiration changes in growing season in Northwest China. Acta Geograph Sin 66(3):407–415

    Google Scholar 

  • Chattopadhyay N, Hulme M (1997) Evaporation and potential evapotranspiration in India under conditions of recent and future climate change. Agric For Meteorol 87:55–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen S, Iu Y, Thomas A (2006) Climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau: potential evapotranspiration trend from 1961–2006. Clim Chang 76:291–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen S, Ianetz A, Stanhill G (2002) Evaporative climate changes at Bet Dagan, Israel, 1964–1998. Agric For Meteorol 111:83–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coleman G, DeCoursey DG (1976) Sensitivity and model variance analysis applied to some evaporation and evapotranspiration models. Water Resour Res 12(5):873–879

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Darshana PA, Pandey RP (2013) Analysing trends in reference evapotranspiration and weather variables in the Tons River Basin in Central India. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27:1407–1421

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Jhajharia D, Fakheri-Fard A, Singh VP, Kahya E (2011) Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran. J Hydrol 399:422–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dinpashoh Y, Mirabbasi R, ASCE SM, Jhajharia D, Abianeh HZ, Mostafaeipour A (2014) Effect of short-term and long-term persistence on identification of temporal trends. J Hydrol Eng 19(3):617–625

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas EM, Vogel RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240(1–2):90–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsawwaf M, Willenms P, Feyen J (2010) Assessment of the sensitisity and prediction uncertainty of evaporation models applied to Nasser Lake, Egypt. J Hydrol 395:10–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Enku T, Melesse AM (2014) A simple temperature method for the estimation of evapotranspiration. Hydrol Process 28:2945–2960

    Google Scholar 

  • Eslamian S, Khordadi MJ, Abedi-Koupai J (2011) Effects of variations in climatic parameters on evapotranspiration in the arid and semi-arid regions. Glob Planet Chang 78:188–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Estévez J, Gavilán P, Berengena J (2009) Sensitivity analysis of a Penman-Monteith type equation to estimate reference evapotranspiration in southern Spain. Hydrol Process 23:3342–3353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu CC, Liu JP, Liu ZM (2009) Spacial and temporal differentiation rule of the climate change in Northeast Ch ina in about 60 years. J Arid Land Resour Environ 23(12):60–65

    Google Scholar 

  • Gao G, Chen D, Ren GY, Chen Y, Liao YM (2006) Spatial and temporal variations and controlling factors of potential evapotranspiration in China: 1956–2000. J Geogr Sci 16(1):3–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong LB, Xu CY, Chen DL, Halldin S, Chen YD (2006) Sensitivity of the Penman-Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin. J Hydrol 329:620–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goyal RK (2004) Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming a case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India). Agric Water Manag 69:1–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamed KH (2008) Trend detection in hydrologic data: the Mann-Kendall trend test under the scaling hypothesis. J Hydrol 349:350–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huo ZL, Dai XQ, Feng SY, Kang SZ, Huang GH (2013) Effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in arid region of China. J Hydrol 492:24–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hupet F, Vanclooster M (2001) Effect of the sampling frequency of meteorological variables on the estimation of the reference evapotranspiration. J Hydrol 243:192–204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Irmak S, Payero JO, Martin DL, Irmak A, Howell TA (2006) Sensitivity analyses and sensitivity coefficients of standardized daily ASCE-Penman-Monteith equation. J Irrig Drain Eng 132(6):564–578

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Shrivastava SK, Sarkar D, Sarka S (2009) Temporal characteristics of pan evaporation trends under thehumid conditions of northeast India. Agric For Meteorol 149:763–770

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Dinpashoh Y, Kahya E, Singh PV, Fakheri-Fard A (2012) Trends in reference evapotranspiration in the humid region of northeast India. Hydrol Process 26:421–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Chattopadhyay S, Choudhary RR, Dev V, Singh VP, Lal S (2013) Influence of climate on incidences of malaria in the Thar Desert, northwest India. Int J Climatol 33:312–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Kumar R, Dabral PP, Singh VP, Choudhary RR, Dinpashoh Y (2014a) Reference evapotranspiration under changing climate over the Thar Desert in India. Meteorol Appl. doi:10.1002/met.1471

    Google Scholar 

  • Jhajharia D, Dinpashoh Y, Kahya E, Choudhary RR, Singh PV (2014b) Trends in temperature over Godavari River basin in Southern Peninsular India. Int J Climatol 34:1369–1384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jia JY, Guo JP (2011) Characteristics of climate change in northeast China for last 46 years. J Arid Land Resour Environ 25(10):109–115

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang Y, Luo Y, Zhao Z, Tao S (2010) Changes in wind speed over China during 1956–2004. Theor Appl Climatol 99(3–4):421–430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin, London, p 220

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374(1–2):171–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liang LQ, Li LJ, Liu Q (2010) Temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration during 1961–2005 in the Taoer River basin of Northeast China. Agric For Meteorol 150:298–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu CM (2004) Study of some problems in water cycle changes of the Yellow River Basin. Adv Water Sci 15:608–614

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu CM, Zhang D, Liu XM, Zhao CS (2012) Spatial and temporal change in the potential evapotranspiration sensitivity to meteorological factors in China (1960–2007). J Geogr Sci 22(1):3–14

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Q, Yang Z, Cui B, Sun T (2010) The temporal trends of reference evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Yellow River Basin, China. Hydrol Process 24:2171–2181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCuen RH (1974) A sensitivity and error analysis of procedures used for estimating evaporation. Water Resour Bull 10(3):486–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKenney MS, Rosenberg NJ (1993) Sensitivity of some potential evapotranspiration estimation methods to climate change. Agric For Meteorol 64:81–110

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meij AD, Pozzer A, Lelieveld J (2012) Trend analysis in aerosol optical depths and pollutant emission estimates between 2000 and 2009. Atmos Environ 51:75–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miralles DG, De Jeu RAM, Gash JH, Holmes TRH, Dolman AJ (2011) Magnitude and variability of land evaporation and its components at the global scale. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15(3):967–981

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Modarres R, Sarhadi A (2009) Rainfall trends analysis of Iran in the last half of the twentieth century. J Geophys Res 114:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • McVicar TR, Roderick ML (2010) Atmospheric science: winds of change. Nat Geosci 3(11):747–748

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McVicar TR, Roderick ML, Donohue RJ, Li LT, Van Niel TG, Thomas A et al (2012) Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial near-surface wind speeds: implications for evaporation. J Hydrol 416–417:182–205

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oki T, Kanae S (2006) Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313(5790):1068–1072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piper BS (1989) Sensitivity of Penman estimates of evaporation to errors in input data. Agric Water Manag 15:279–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rana G, Katerji N (1998) A measurement based sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith actual evapotranspiration model for crops of different height and in contrasting water status. Theor Appl Climatol 60:141–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roderick ML, Rotstayn LD, Farquhar GD, Hobbins MT (2007) On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. Geophys Res Lett 34:L17403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruelland D, Ardoin-Bardin S, Billen G, Servat E (2008) Sensitivity of a lumped and semi-distributed hydrological model to several methods of rainfall interpolation on a large basin in West Africa. J Hydrol 361:96–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saeid E, Mohammad JK, Jahangir AK (2011) Effects of variations in climatic parameters on evapotranspiration in the arid and semi-arid regions. Global Planet Chang 78:188–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saxton KE (1975) Sensitivity analysis of the combination evapotranspiration equation. Agric Meteorol 15:343–353

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sharifi A, Dinpashoh Y (2014) Sensitivity analysis of the Penman-Monteith reference crop evapotranspiration to climatic variables in Iran. Water Resour Manag 28:5465–5476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen YJ, Liu CM, Liu M, Zeng Y, Tian CY (2010) Change in pan evaporation over the past 50 years in the arid region of China. Hydrol Process 24:225–231

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh VP, Xu CY (1997) Sensitivity of mass transfer based evaporation equations to errors in daily and monthly input data. Hydrol Process 11:1465–1473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Hosseinzadeh Talaee P (2014) Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to climatic change in different climates. Global Planet Chang 115:16–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tabari H, Somee BS, Zadeh MR (2011) Testing for long-term trends in climatic variables in Iran. Atmos Res 100(1):132–140

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theil H (1950) A rank invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis, Part 3. Proc K Ned Akad Wet 53:1397–1412

    Google Scholar 

  • Thiessen AH (1911) Precipitation averages for large areas. Mon Weather Rev 39:1082–1084

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas A (2000) Spatial and temporal characteristics of potential evapotranspiration trends over China. Int J Climatol 20:381–396

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vautard R, Cattiaux J, Yiou P, Thépaut JN, Ciais P (2010) Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to increased surface roughness. Nat Geosci 3(11):756–761

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vousoughi FD, Dinpashoh Y, Aalami MT, Jhajharia D (2013) Trend analysis of groundwater using non-parametric methods (case study: Ardabil plain). Stoch Env Res Risk A 27(2):547–559

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y, Jiang T, Bothe O, Fraedrich K (2007) Changes of pan evaporation and reference evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River basin. Theor Appl Climatol 90:13–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang EL, Wang SQ, Liu N (2012) Nitrate-nitrogen output flux simulation from different sandy soils in Western Liaohe River Basin. Res Environ Sci 25(2):165–172

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang YJ, Li J, Lin ZH, Tong XJ, Xing LM (2013) Assessing the impacts of climate change on the potential evapotranspiration in the upper-middle reach of the Yellow River. Sci Soil Water Conserv 11(5):48–56

    Google Scholar 

  • Xie JF, Zhang T, Zhang MY, Zhang H (2012) Change and reason analysis of ground solar Radiation in Northeast China over recent 50 years. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica 33(12):2127–2134

    Google Scholar 

  • Xu CY, Gong LB, Jiang T, Chen D, Singh VP (2006) Analysis of spatial distribution and temporal trend of reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in Changjiang (Yangtze River) catchment. J Hydrol 327:81–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang GY, Wang ZS, Wang H, Jia YW (2009) Potential evapotranspiration evolution rule and its sensitivity analysis in Haihe River basin. Adv Water Sci 20(3):409–415

    Google Scholar 

  • Yin YH, Wu SH, Chen G, Dai E (2010) Attribution analyses of potential evapotranspiration changes in China since the 1960s. Theor Appl Climatol 101:19–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259(1–4):254–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang XT, Kang SZ, Zhang L, Liu JQ (2010) Spatial variation of climatology monthly crop reference evapotranspiration and sensitivity coefficients in Shiyang river basin of northwest China. Agric Water Manag 97:1506–1516

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu CY, Chen XH (2011) Reference evapotranspiration changes in China: natural processes or human influences? Theor Appl Climatol 103:479–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng LH, Song KS, Zhang B, Wang ZM (2010) Sensitive analysis on reference evapotranspiration to key meteorological factors in Northeast China. Chin J Agrom 31(1):11–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou Y, Zhang X, Xu J (2013) Changes of reference crop evapotranspiration and sensitivity analysis of meteorological factors in Eastern Plateau Agricultural Region of Qinghai Province. J Nat Resour 28(5):765–775

    Google Scholar 

  • Zuo DP, Xu ZX, Yang H, Liu XC (2012) Spatiotemporal variations and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity to key meteorological variables in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrol Process 26:1149–1160

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We acknowledge the Water Conservation Department for the research grant and financial support. The granted research is titled as “Water-Ecology-Economy Security Study for the West Liao River Plain (201101021).” We also acknowledge the Chinese Meteorology Database (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn/) for the meteorology data used in this study. Suggestions and discussions from the reviewers of this paper are also greatly appreciated.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Resource Research Institution, College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang, Liaoning Province, 110866, People’s Republic of China

    Zhendong Gao, Junshi He, Kebao Dong & Xiang Li

  2. Office of Flood Prevention and Anti-drought Management, SongLiao Water Conservancy Committee, Changchun, Jilin Province, 130021, People’s Republic of China

    Xiaodong Bian

Authors
  1. Zhendong Gao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Junshi He
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Kebao Dong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Xiaodong Bian
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Xiang Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Junshi He.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gao, Z., He, J., Dong, K. et al. Sensitivity study of reference crop evapotranspiration during growing season in the West Liao River basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 865–881 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1453-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1453-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation