Abstract
A simple and useful method, the sliding temporal correlation (STC) analysis, is employed in the present work to investigate the predictable time (PT) of two typical chaotic numerical models (Lorenz system and Chen chaotic system) and reliable computing times (RCT) of an atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM5). Through kinds of numerical experiments, results indicate that the maximal prediction time of Lorenz system (and Chen chaotic system) detected by STC method is coherent well with that by classical error limitation method, suggesting the effective role of the STC method. Then, taking the geopotential height for example, the RCT of ECHAM5 and potential impact factors such as the integration time step, initial condition, and model’s resolution are explored. Results reveal that (1) the high-value areas of the RCT are mainly situated in the tropics, and the global mean RCT (GMRCT) decreases from with the time step increasing; (2) the ocean forcing can enlarge the difference of the RCT between that averaged over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which implies the RCT in the NH may be more sensitive to the computation error than that in the SH; (3) the model’s RCT also displays significant seasonality having longer (about 1–2 days) GMRCT in the experiment integrating from winter than that from summer; (4) the RCT of the high-resolution (T106) ECHAM5 shows similar spatial feature to that of low-resolution (T63) ECHAM5, but the GMRCT and hemispheric difference decreases.
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Acknowledgement
This research was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2011CB309704) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41375112), and the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05090402), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41275083 and 91337105).
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Liu, Y., Wang, P. & Huang, G. Study on the reliable computation time of the numerical model using the sliding temporal correlation method. Theor Appl Climatol 119, 539–550 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1128-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1128-9