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Temperature analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections

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Abstract

The present study intends to show the effect of climate change on trends and patterns of temperature over the southwestern part of Iran. The research has been divided into two parts. The first part consists of an analysis of the temperature trends of mean temperature (TM), maximum temperature (TMAX), and minimum temperature (TMIN) over 39 stations in the study region for the period 1950–2007. The trends in these parameters were detected by linear regression, and significance was tested by t test. Mann–Kendall rank test (MK test) was also employed to confirm the results. The second part of the research involved future projection of temperature based on four models. The models used were Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, European Center Hamburg Model, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, and UK Meteorological Office. Temperature projections were done under B1 and A1B emissions scenarios. The analysis of temperature trends revealed a significant increase during summer and spring seasons. TMAX was stable than TMIN and TM, and winter was stable as compared with summer, spring, and autumn seasons. Results of modeling showed that temperature may increase between 1.69 and 6.88 °C by 2100 in the study area. Summer temperatures may increase with higher rates than spring, winter, and autumn temperatures.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the IRIMO and Water Resources Management Organization of the Ministry of Energy Islamic Republic of Iran for providing observed data. We also acknowledge the modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the PCMDI, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA for collecting and archiving the model output and for providing necessary data required for the study. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions which helped in improving the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Pune, Pune, 411007, India

    Mohammad Zarenistanak & Amit G. Dhorde

  2. Centre for Advanced Training, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    R. H. Kripalani

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  1. Mohammad Zarenistanak
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  2. Amit G. Dhorde
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  3. R. H. Kripalani
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Correspondence to Amit G. Dhorde.

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Zarenistanak, M., Dhorde, A.G. & Kripalani, R.H. Temperature analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections. Theor Appl Climatol 116, 103–117 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0913-1

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