Abstract
Seasonal climate predictions of spring (March‒April‒May) dust weather frequency (DWF) over North China (DWFNC) are conducted based on a previous-summer (June–July–August) normalized difference vegetation index in North China (NDVINC), winter (December–January–February) sea-ice cover index over the Barents Sea (SICBS), and winter Antarctic Oscillation index (AAOI). The year-to-year increment approach is applied to improve the prediction skill. Two statistical prediction schemes—statistical models based on year-to-year-increment-form predictors (SM-DY) and anomaly-form predictors (SM-A)—are applied based on NDVINC, SICBS, and AAOI. The results show that the prediction model using the year-to-year increment approach performs much better in predicting DWFNC, with the correlation coefficient between the average DWFNC and the cross-validated results of SM-DY (SM-A) being 0.80 (0.68) during 1983–2016. A hybrid dynamical–statistical prediction model (HM-DY) is constructed based on NDVINC, SICBS, and a spring 850-hPa geopotential height index, derived from the second version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System. Results show that HM-DY has comparable prediction skill with SM-DY. Both SM-DY and HM-DY are extended to hindcast DWF over the 245 stations in the whole of northern China, indicating comparably high skill. The results show that NDVINC and SICBS account for large variances of the dust climate over northern China. In particular, NDVINC and SICBS can enhance 64% of stations in North China in their prediction of dust climate.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Cohen J et al (2014) Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nat Geosci 7:627–637. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234
Dai H, Fan K, Tian B (2018) A hybrid downscaling model for winter temperature over northeast. China Int J Climatol 38:E349–E363. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5376
Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Ding RQ, Li JP, Wang SG, Ren FM (2005) Decadal change of the spring dust storm in northwest China and the associated atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl021561
Fan K (2010) A prediction model for Atlantic named storm frequency using a year-by-year increment approach. Weather Forecast 25:1842–1851. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010waf2222406.1
Fan K, Wang HJ (2004) Antarctic oscillation and the dust weather frequency in North China. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl019465
Fan K, Wang HJ (2006) Interannual variability of Antarctic Oscillation and its influence on East Asian climate during boreal winter and spring. Sci China Ser D 49:554–560. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-006-0554-7
Fan K, Wang HJ (2007) Dust storms in North China in 2002: a case study of the low frequency oscillation. Adv Atmos Sci 24:15–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-007-0015-z
Fan K, Wang HJ (2009) A new approach to forecasting typhoon frequency over the western North Pacific. Weather Forecast 24:974–986. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009waf2222194.1
Fan K, Wang HJ, Choi Y-J (2008) A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall. Chin Sci Bull 53:602–609. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-008-0083-1
Fan K, Liu Y, Chen HP (2012) Improving the prediction of the East Asian summer monsoon: new approaches. Weather Forecast 27:1017–1030. https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-11-00092.1
Fan K, Tian BQ, Wang HJ (2016a) New approaches for the skillful prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation based on coupled dynamic climate models. Int J Climatol 36:82–94. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4330
Fan K, Xie ZM, Xu ZQ (2016b) Two different periods of high dust weather frequency in northern China. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 9:263–269
Fan K, Xie ZM, Wang HJ, Xu ZQ, Liu JP (2017) Frequency of spring dust weather in North China linked to sea ice variability in the Barents Sea. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3515-7
Gong D-Y, Mao R, Fan Y-D (2006) East Asian dust storm and weather disturbance: possible links to the Arctic Oscillation. Int J Climatol 26:1379–1396. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1324
Gong DY, Mao R, Shi PJ, Fan YD (2007) Correlation between east Asian dust storm frequency and PNA. Geophysi Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007gl029944
Huang J, Wang T, Wang W, Li Z, Yan H (2014) Climate effects of dust aerosols over East Asian arid and semiarid regions. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:11398–11416. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014jd021796
Husar RB et al (2001) Asian dust events of April 1998. J Geophys Res Atmos 106:18317–18330. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jd900788
Kang DJ, Wang HJ (2005) Analysis on the decadal scale variation of the dust storm in North China. Sci Chin Ser D 48:2260–2266. https://doi.org/10.1360/03yd0255
Kang J-Y, Tanaka TY, Mikami M (2014) Effect of dead leaves on early spring dust emission in East Asia. Atmos Environ 86:35–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.12.007
Kimura R, Shinoda M (2010) Spatial distribution of threshold wind speeds for dust outbreaks in northeast Asia. Geomorphology 114:319–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.07.014
Kogan F, Guo W, Jelenak A (2011) Global vegetation health: long-term data records [M]. Use of satellite and in-situ data to improve sustainability. Springer, Berlin, pp 247–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-9618-0_28
Kurosaki Y, Mikami M (2003) Recent frequent dust events and their relation to surface wind in East Asia. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl017261
Kurosaki Y, Mikami M (2005) Regional difference in the characteristic of dust event in East Asia: relationship among dust outbreak, surface wind, and land surface condition. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 83A:1–18. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003913
Kurosaki Y, Shinoda M, Mikami M (2011) What caused a recent increase in dust outbreaks over East Asia? Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gl047494
Lang XM (2008) Prediction model for spring dust weather frequency in North China. Sci Chin Ser D 51:709–720. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-008-0048-x
Lee E-H, Sohn B-J (2009) Examining the impact of wind and surface vegetation on the Asian dust occurrence over three classified source regions. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jd010687
Lee E-H, Sohn B-J (2011) Recent increasing trend in dust frequency over Mongolia and Inner Mongolia regions and its association with climate and surface condition change. Atmos Environ 45:4611–4616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.05.065
Li J, Fan K, Xu Z (2016) Links between the late wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and springtime vegetation growth over Eurasia. Clim Dyn 46:987–1000. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2627-9
Li J, Fan K, Xu J, Powell AM Jr, Kogan F (2017a) The effect of preceding wintertime Arctic polar vortex on springtime NDVI patterns in boreal Eurasia, 1982–2015. Clim Dyn 49:23–35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3324-z
Li J, Fan K, Zhou LM (2017b) Satellite observations of El nino impacts on Eurasian Spring vegetation greenness during the period 1982–2015. Remote Sens 9:628. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9070628
Liu Y, Fan K (2012) Prediction of spring precipitation in China using a downscaling approach. Meteorol Atmos Phys 118:79–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0202-z
Liu XD, Yin Z-Y, Zhang XY, Yang XC (2004) Analyses of the spring dust storm frequency of northern China in relation to antecedent and concurrent wind, precipitation, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004615
Liu JP, Curry JA, Wang HJ, Song M, Horton RM (2012) Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109:4074–4079. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1114910109
Liu HL, Zhang Q, Zhang JG, Guo JQ, Wang S (2014) Spatial distribution and variation of sandstorms in the central Hexi Corridor during 1960–2012 (in Chinese). J Desert Res 34:1102–1108. https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2013.00317
Mao WY, Ali M, Chen S, Lu GH (2005) Relationship between the dust weathers and the eigenvalues of preceding monthly atmospheric circulation in Xinjiang in spring (in Chinese). Arid Land Geog 28:171–175. https://doi.org/10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2005.02.007
Merrill JT, Uematsu M, Bleck R (1989) Meteorological analysis of long range transport of mineral aerosols over the North Pacific. J Geophys Res Atmos 94:8584–8598. https://doi.org/10.1029/JD094iD06p08584
Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forcast models. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26:1589–1600. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1987)026%3C1589:cviscf%3E2.0.co;2
Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25:693–712. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1181
Nandintsetseg B, Shinoda M, Kimura R, Ibaraki Y (2010) Relationship between soil moisture and vegetation activity in the Mongolian Steppe. Sola 6:29–32. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2010-008
Piao SL, Wang XH, Ciais P, Zhu B, Wang T, Liu J (2011) Changes in satellite-derived vegetation growth trend in temperate and boreal Eurasia from 1982 to 2006. Glob Change Biol 17:3228–3239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02419.x
Qian WH, Quan LS, Shi SY (2002) Variations of the dust storm in China and its climatic control. J Clim 15:1216–1229. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C1216:votdsi%3E2.0.co;2
Qian WH, Tang X, Quan LS (2004) Regional characteristics of dust storms in China. Atmos Environ 38:4895–4907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.05.038
Qin DH, Zhou BT, Xiao CD (2014) Progress in studies of cryospheric changes and their impacts on climate of China. J Meteorol Res 28:732–746. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4029-z
Raupach MR (1992) Drag and drag partition on rough surfaces. Bound-Layer Meteorol 60:375–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00155203
Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res Atmos https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd002670
Robinson DA, Dewey KF, Heim RR (1993) Global snow cover monitoring—an update. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 74:1689–1696. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074%3C1689:gscmau%3E2.0.co;2
Saha S et al (2014) The NCEP climate forecast system version 2. J Clim 27:2185–2208. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00823.1
Shinoda M et al (2010) Characteristics of dust emission in the Mongolian steppe during the 2008 DUVEX intensive observational period. Sola 6:9–12. https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2010-003
Takaya K, Nakamura H (2001) A formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58:608–627. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058%3C0608:afoapi%3E2.0.co;2
Takemi T, Seino N (2005) Dust storms and cyclone tracks over the arid regions in east Asia in spring. J Geophys Res Atmos 110:963–971. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004jd004698
Tian BQ, Fan K (2015) A skillful prediction model for winter NAO based on Atlantic sea surface temperature and eurasian snow cover. Weather Forecast 30:197–205. https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-14-00100.1
Tucker CJ, Dregne HE, Newcomb WW (1991) Expansion and contraction of the Sahara Desert from 1980 to 1990. Science 253:299–301. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.253.5017.299
Van den Dool H, Huang J, Fan Y (2003) Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to US soil moisture over 1981–2001. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002jd003114
Wang HJ, Lang XM, Zhou GQ, Kang DJ (2003) A preliminary report of the model prediction on the forthcoming winter and spring dust climate over China (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci 27:136–140. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2003.01.13
Wang XM, Dong ZB, Zhang JW, Liu LC (2004) Modern dust storms in China: an overview. J Arid Environ 58:559–574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2003.11.009
Wang HJ, Zhang Y, Lang XM (2010) On the predictand of short-term climate prediction. Clim Environ Res 15:225–228. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2010.03.01
Wang S, Fu BJ, Gao GY, Yao XL, Zhou J (2012) Soil moisture and evapotranspiration of different land cover types in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:2883–2892. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2883-2012
Wang C, Zhao CY, Xu ZL, Wang Y, Peng HH (2013) Effect of vegetation on soil water retention and storage in a semi-arid alpine forest catchment. J Arid Land 5:207–219. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-013-0151-5
Wang HJ, Chen HP, Liu JP (2015) Arctic sea ice decline intensified haze pollution in eastern China. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 8:1–9
Wang X, Liu J, Che H, Ji F, Liu J (2018) Spatial and temporal evolution of natural and anthropogenic dust events over northern China. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-20382-5
Weiss JL, Gutzler DS, Coonrod JEA, Dahm CN (2004) Long-term vegetation monitoring with NDVI in a diverse semi-arid setting, central New Mexico, USA. J Arid Environ 58:249–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2003.07.001
Wu RG, Kirtman BP (2007) Observed relationship of spring and summer East Asian rainfall with winter and spring Eurasian snow. J Clim 20:1285–1304. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli4068.1
Wu BY, Wang J (2002) Winter Arctic oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002gl015373
Wu YF, Zhang RJ, Han ZW, Zeng ZM (2010) Relationship between East Asian Monsoon and dust weather frequency over Beijing. Adv Atmos Sci 27:1389–1398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9181-5
Yan Y, Xu X, Xin X, Yang G, Wang X, Yan R, Chen B (2011) Effect of vegetation coverage on aeolian dust accumulation in a semiarid steppe of northern China. Catena 87:351–356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2011.07.002
Yang S, Lau K-M, Kim K-M (2002) Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian–Pacific–American winter climate anomalies. J Clim 15:306–325. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C0306:voteaj%3E2.0.co;2
Yang XQ, Zhu YM, Xie Q, Ren XJ, Xu GY (2004) Advances in studies of Pacific decadal oscillation (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci 28:979–992. https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2004.06.15
Zhang XY, Arimoto R, An ZS (1997) Dust emission from Chinese desert sources linked to variations in atmospheric circulation. J Geophys Res Atmos 102:28041–28047. https://doi.org/10.1029/97jd02300
Zhang RJ, Han ZW, Wang MX, Zhang XY (2002) Dust storm weather in China: New characteristics and origins (in Chinese). Q Sci 22:374–380
Zhao CS, Dabu X, Li Y (2004a) Relationship between climatic factors and dust storm frequency in Inner Mongolia of China. Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003gl018351
Zhao HY, Chen XH, Wang XW, Bai HZ, Dong AX, Yu YX (2004b) Climatic analysis and forecasting method of sand–dust storms in northwest China (in Chinese). J Desert Res 24:637–641
Zhu YM, Yang XQ (2003) Relationships between Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate variabilities in China (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin 61:641–654. https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2003.065
Zhu CW, Wang B, Qian WH (2008) Why do dust storms decrease in northern China concurrently with the recent global warming? Geophys Res Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034886
Zhu CW, Xu K, Zhang SP, Guo L (2010) Interdecadal variation of spring dust storms in china and its seasonal statistical forecast (in Chinese). Meteorol Sci Technol 38:201–204
Zou XK, Zhai PM (2004) Relationship between vegetation coverage and spring dust storms over northern China. J Geophys Res Atmos. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003jd003913
Acknowledgements
We thank the reviewers and Editor for constructive recommends. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41730964, 41325018, 41575079).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ji, L., Fan, K. Climate prediction of dust weather frequency over northern China based on sea-ice cover and vegetation variability. Clim Dyn 53, 687–705 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-04608-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-04608-w