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Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming

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Abstract

Global warming of 2 °C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 °C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 °C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 × 106 km2, which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 × 106 km2 (north of 45°N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34–2.67 °C on area average relative to 1990–2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42–0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24–26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8–15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models.

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Acknowledgements

This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600704), the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants (41405087), the Open Research Fund Program of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province under grant PAEKL-2016-K2, and the CAS-PKU Joint Research Program. Thanks are due to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) that provided the CMIP5 simulation data (http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/) and the National Snow & Ice data Center (NSIDC) that provided the Circum-Arctic map of permafrost and ground ice conditions (http://nsidc.org/data/docs/fgdc/ggd318_map_circumarctic/index.html). We are indebted to two reviewers for their constructive comments for the initial draft of this paper.

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  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Center, Institute of Atsmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, P. O. Box 9804, Beijing, 100029, China

    Donglin Guo & Huijun Wang

  2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Donglin Guo

  3. Joint Laboratory for Climate and Environmental Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China

    Donglin Guo

  4. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Huijun Wang

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Guo, D., Wang, H. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 °C global warming. Clim Dyn 49, 2569–2583 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3469-9

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