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Predictability and prediction of summer rainfall in the arid and semi-arid regions of China

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Abstract

Northwest China (NWC) is an arid and semi-arid region where climate variability and environmental changes are sensitive to precipitation. The present study explores sources and limits of predictability of summer precipitation over NWC using the predictable mode analysis (PMA) of percentage of rainfall anomaly data. Two major modes of NWC summer rainfall variability are identified which are tied to Eurasian continental scale precipitation variations. The first mode features wet northern China corresponding to dry central Siberia and wet Mongolia, which is mainly driven by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The second mode features wet western China reflecting wet Central Asia and dry Ural–western Siberia, which strongly links to Indian Ocean SSTA. Anomalous land warming over Eurasia also provides important precursors for the two modes. The cross-validated hindcast results demonstrate these modes can be predicted with significant correlation skills, suggesting that they may be considered as predictable modes. The domain averaged temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill during 1979 to 2015 using 0-month (1-month) lead models is 0.39 (0.35), which is considerably higher than dynamical models’ multi-model ensemble mean skill (−0.02). Maximum potential attainable prediction skills are also estimated and discussed. The result illustrates advantage of PMA in predicting rainfall over dry land areas and large room for dynamical model improvement. However, secular changes of predictors need to be detected continuously in order to make practical useful prediction.

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Acknowledgments

The work was supported by the Global Change Research Program of China (2015CB953904, 2012CB955604) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41575067). This work was also supported by Atmosphere–Ocean Research Center that is sponsored by Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology. We also acknowledge support from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC). This is publication No 9830 of the SOEST, publication No 1213 of IPRC and publication No 128 of Earth System Modeling Center (ESMC).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Physical Oceanography Laboratory/CIMST, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China

    Wen Xing

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

    Bin Wang

  3. Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Bin Wang

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  1. Wen Xing
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Correspondence to Wen Xing.

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Xing, W., Wang, B. Predictability and prediction of summer rainfall in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. Clim Dyn 49, 419–431 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3351-9

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