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A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over Pakistan

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Abstract

A statistical approach is utilized to construct an interannual model for summer (July–August) rainfall over the western parts of South Asian Monsoon. Observed monthly rainfall data for selected stations of Pakistan for the last 55 years (1960–2014) is taken as predictand. Recommended climate indices along with the oceanic and atmospheric data on global scales, for the period April–June are employed as predictors. First 40 years data has been taken as training period and the rest as validation period. Cross-validation stepwise regression approach adopted to select the robust predictors. Upper tropospheric zonal wind at 200 hPa over the northeastern Atlantic is finally selected as the best predictor for interannual model. Besides, the next possible candidate ‘geopotential height at upper troposphere’ is taken as the indirect predictor for being a source of energy transportation from core region (northeast Atlantic/western Europe) to the study area. The model performed well for both the training as well as validation period with correlation coefficient of 0.71 and tolerable root mean square errors. Cross-validation of the model has been processed by incorporating JRA-55 data for potential predictors in addition to NCEP and fragmentation of study period to five non-overlapping test samples. Subsequently, to verify the outcome of the model on physical grounds, observational analyses as well as the model simulations are incorporated. It is revealed that originating from the jet exit region through large vorticity gradients, zonally dominating waves may transport energy and momentum to the downstream areas of west-central Asia, that ultimately affect interannual variability of the specific rainfall. It has been detected that both the circumglobal teleconnection and Rossby wave propagation play vital roles in modulating the proposed mechanism.

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Acknowledgments

This work was jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41530424, 41205034, and 41030961). The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions in improving the quality and scope of this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Dildar Hussain Kazmi,  Sen Zhao & Yanjie Li

  2. College of Global Change and Earth System Sciences (GCESS), Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jianping Li

  3. Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, 100875, China

    Jianping Li

  4. North China Sea Marine Forecasting Center of State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao, 266061, China

    Chengqing Ruan

  5. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Dildar Hussain Kazmi &  Sen Zhao

Authors
  1. Dildar Hussain Kazmi
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  2. Jianping Li
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  3. Chengqing Ruan
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  4. Sen Zhao
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  5. Yanjie Li
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Correspondence to Dildar Hussain Kazmi or Jianping Li.

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Kazmi, D.H., Li, J., Ruan, C. et al. A statistical downscaling model for summer rainfall over Pakistan. Clim Dyn 47, 2653–2666 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2990-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-2990-1

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