Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

An Erratum to this article was published on 01 August 2016

Abstract

Two dominant modes of the winter temperature over East Asia, a northern mode and a southern mode, and their links with Arctic climate conditions are analyzed. The relationships of the two modes with Arctic sea ice are different. The northern mode is closely linked to variations in sea ice of the Arctic Barents–Laptev Sea in previous autumn and most of the Arctic in concurrent winter. The southern mode seems independent from the Arctic sea ice variations, but is associated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific. Results suggest an effect of Arctic sea ice variation on the northern mode and an influence of tropical SST anomalies on the southern mode. Reduced sea ice over the Arctic increases 1000–500-hPa thickness over the high-latitudes of Eurasian continent, which reduces the meridional thickness gradient between the middle and high latitudes and thus weakens the extratropical upper-level zonal wind. The weakened zonal wind provides a favorable dynamic condition for the development of a high-latitude ridge around the Ural Mountain. Reduced Arctic sea ice also tends to enhance the Siberian high through both thermodynamic and dynamic processes. The above atmospheric circulation patterns provide a favorable condition for the intrusion of cold air to northern East Asia.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander MA, Bhatt UM, Walsh JE, Timlin MS, Miller JS, Scott JD (2004) The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. J Clim 17:890–905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnes EA (2013) Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes. Geophys Res Lett 40:4728–4733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barriopedro D, Garcia-Herrera R (2006) A climatology of Northern Hemisphere blocking. J Clim 19:1042–1063

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Budikova D (2009) Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: a review. Glob Planet Change 68:149–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang CP, Lau KM (1980) Northeasterly cold surges and near-equatorial disturbances over the winter MONEX area during December 1974. Part II: planetary-scale aspects. Mon Weather Rev 108:298–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang CP, Lau KM (1982) Short-term planetary-scale interactions over the tropics and midlatitudes during northern winter. Part I: contrasts between active and inactive periods. Mon Weather Rev 110:933–946

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W (2002) The impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the cycle of East Asian winter and summer monsoon. Chin J Atmos Sci 26:595–610

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Graf HF, Huang R (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 17:48–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Wu R, Chen W (2014a) Distinguishing interannual variations of the northern and southern modes of the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 27:835–851

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Wu R, Chen W (2014b) Impacts of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration changes on the East Asian winter monsoon variability. J Clim 27:5433–5450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cheung HN, Zhou W, Mok HY, Wu MC (2012) Relationship between Ural–Siberian blocking and the East Asian winter monsoon in relation to the Arctic Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J Clim 25:4242–4257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J, Fletcher C (2007) Improved skill for Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature predictions based on land–atmosphere fall anomalies. J Clim 20:4118–4132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J, Furtado JC, Barlow MA, Alexeev VA, Cherry JE (2012) Arctic warming, increasing fall snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett 7:014007. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohen J, Jones J, Furtado JC, Tziperman E (2013) Warm Arctic, cold continents: a common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt, snow advance, and extreme winter weather. Oceanography. doi:10.5670/oceanog.2013.70

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). J Clim 19:2122–2143

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Kiladis GN, Webster PJ (1999) The horizontal and vertical structure of East Asian winter monsoon pressure surges. Q J R Meteorol Soc 125:29–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Tomas R, Alexander M, Lawrence D (2010) The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J Clim 23:333–351

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y (1990) Build-up, air mass transformation and propagation of Siberian high and its relation to cold surge in East Asia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 44:281–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y, Krishnamurti TN (1987) Heat budget of the Siberian high and the winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 115:2428–2449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fletcher CG, Hardiman S, Kushner PJ, Cohen JL (2009) The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations. J Clim 22:1208–1222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Francis JA, Vavrus SJ (2012) Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 39:L06801. doi:10.1029/2012GL051000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Francis JA, Chan W, Leathers DJ (2009) Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys Res Lett 36:L07503. doi:10.1029/2009GL037274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao H, Yang S (2009) A severe drought event in northern China in winter 2008–09 and the possible influences of La Nina and Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res 114:D24104. doi:10.1029/2009JD012430

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ghatak D, Deser C, Frei A, Dong G, Phillips A, Robinson DA, Stroeve J (2012) Simulated Siberian snow cover response to observed Arctic sea ice loss, 1979–2008. J Geophys Res 117:D23108. doi:10.1029/2012JD018047

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong DY, Ho CH (2004) Intra-seasonal variability of wintertime temperature over East Asia. Int J Climatol 24:131–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong DY, Wang SW, Zhu JH (2001) East Asian winter monsoon and Arctic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 28:2073–2076

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S (2009) Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett 36:L08707. doi:10.1029/2008GL037079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hopsch S, Cohen J, Dethloff K (2012) Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter. Tellus A 64:18624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Inoue J, Hori ME, Takaya K (2012) The role of Barents sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-Arctic cold-Siberian anomaly. J Clim 25:2561–2568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jaiser R, Dethloff K, Handorf D, Rinke A, Cohen J (2012) Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus 64:11595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeong JH, Ho CH (2005) Changes in occurrence of cold surges over East Asia in association with Arctic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L14704. doi:10.1029/2005GL023024

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeong JH, Ou T, Linderholm HW, Kim BM, Kim SJ, Kug JS, Chen D (2011) The recent recovery of the Siberian high intensity. J Geophys Res 116:D23102

    Google Scholar 

  • Jhun JG, Lee EJ (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones JE, Cohen J (2011) A diagnostic comparison of Alaskan and Siberian strong anticyclones. J Clim 24:2599–2611

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joung CH, Hitchman MH (1982) On the role of successive downstream development in East Asian polar air outbreaks. Mon Weather Rev 110:1224–1237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanamitsu M, EbisuzakiW Woollen J, Yang SK, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang L, Chen W, Wei K (2006) The interdecadal variation of winter temperature in China and its relation to the anomalies in atmospheric general circulation (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res 11:330–339

    Google Scholar 

  • Kang L, Chen W, Wang L, Chen L (2009) Interannual variations of winter temperature in China and their relationship with the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (in Chinese). Clim Environ Res 14:45–53

    Google Scholar 

  • Li CY (1990) Interaction between anomalous winter monsoon in East Asia and El Niño events. Adv Atmos Sci 7:36–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Yang S (2010) A dynamical index for the East Asian winter monsoon. J Clim 23:4255–4262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu G, Ji LR, Sun SQ, Xin YF (2012a) Low- and mid-high latitude components of the East Asian winter monsoon and their reflecting variations in winter climate over eastern China. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 5:195–200

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Curry JA, Wang H, Song M, Horton RM (2012b) Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi:10.1073/pnas.1114910109

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu G, Ji LR, Sun SQ, Xin YF (2013) A discussion on the East Asian winter monsoon index—differences between the East Asian winter monsoon at the mid-high latitudes and that at the low latitudes (in Chinese). Chin J Atmos Sci 37:755–764

    Google Scholar 

  • Lu MM, Chang CP (2009) Unusual late-season cold surges during the 2005 Asian winter monsoon: roles of Atlantic blocking and the central Asian anticyclone. J Clim 22:5205–5217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mori M, Watanabe M, Shiogama H, Inoue J, Kimoto M (2014) Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades. Nat Geosci. doi:10.1038/ngeo2277

    Google Scholar 

  • Murakami T (1988) Monsoon meteorology. In: Chang CP, Krishnamurti T (eds) Oxford monographs on geology & geophysics no. 7. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 235–270

    Google Scholar 

  • Murakami T, Sumi A (1981) Large-scale aspects of the 1978–79 winter circulation over the greater WMONEX Region, Part II. Long-period perturbations. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 59:646–671

    Google Scholar 

  • Overland JE, Wood KR, Wang M (2011) Warm Arctic-cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea. Polar Res 30:15787. doi:10.3402/polar.v30i0.15787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palmén E, Newton CW (1969) Atmospheric circulation systems, vol 13., International geophysics seriesAcademic, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Park TW, Ho CH, Yang S (2011) Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation and cold surges over East Asia. J Clim 24:68–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petoukhov V, Semenov V (2010) A link between reduced Barents–Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J Geophys Res 115:D21111. doi:10.1029/2009JD013568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108(D14):4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Screen JA, Simmonds I, Deser C, Tomas R (2013) The atmospheric response to three decades of observed Arctic sea ice loss. J Clim 26:1230–1248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shi N (1996) Features of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity on multiple time scale in recent 40 years and their relation to climate. J Appl Meteorol 7:175–182 (in Chinese)

    Google Scholar 

  • Sohn SJ, Tam CY, Park CK (2011) Leading modes of East Asian winter climate variability and their predictability: an assessment of the APCC multi-model ensemble. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 89:455–474. doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strong C, Magnusdottir G (2011) Dependence of NAO variability on coupling with sea ice. Clim Dyn 36:1681–1689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takaya K, Nakamura H (2005a) Mechanisms of intraseasonal amplification of the cold Siberian high. J Atmos Sci 62:4423–4440

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takaya K, Nakamura H (2005b) Geographical dependence of upper-level blocking formation associated with intraseasonal amplification of the Siberian high. J Atmos Sci 58:4441–4449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang Q, Zhang X, Yang X, Francis JA (2013) Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss. Environ Res Lett 8:014036

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vihma T (2014) Effects of Arctic sea ice decline on weather and climate: a review. Surv Geophys. doi:10.1007/s10712-014-9284-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Walland DJ, Simmonds I (1997) Modeled atmospheric response to changes in Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Clim Dyn 13:25–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate. J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Chen W, Zhou W, Chan JCL (2010a) Effect of the climate shift around mid-1970s on the relationship between wintertime Ural blocking circulation and East Asian climate. Int J Climatol 30:153–158

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu ZW, Chang CP, Liu J, Li JP, Zhou TJ (2010b) Another look at interannual-to-interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon: the northern and southern temperature modes. J Clim 23:1495–1512

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Kimoto M (2000) Atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling in the North Atlantic: a positive feedback. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:3343–3369

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Kimoto M (2001) Corrigendum. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127:733–734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watanabe M, Nitta T (1999) Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J Clim 12:494–510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu MC, Chan JCL (1997) Upper-level features associated with winter monsoon surges over south China. Mon Weather Rev 125:317–340

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu B, Wang J (2002) Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 29:1897. doi:10.1029/2002GL015373

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu B, Huang RH, Gao DY (1999) The impact of variation of sea-ice extent in the Kara Sea and the Barents Seas in winter on the winter monsoon over East Asia (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin 13:141–153

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu B, Zhang RH, Arrigo RD (2006) Distinct modes of the East Asian winter monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 134:2165–2179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z, He J (2010) Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Clim Dyn 37:1161–1169

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu B, Su JZ, Zhang RH (2011) Effects of autumn–winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian high. Chin Sci Bull 56:3220–3228

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang LN, Wu BY (2013) Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter surface air temperature and possible causes. Chin Sci Bull 58:3969–3977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang S, Lau KM, Kim KM (2002) Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J Clim 15:306–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Niño on the East Asian monsoon: a diagnostic study of the 86/87 and 91/92 events. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 74:49–62

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y, Sperber KR, Boyle JS (1997) Climatology and interannual variation of the East Asian winter monsoon: results from the 1979–1995 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Mon Weather Rev 125:2605–2619

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1999) A diagnostic study of the impact of El Niño on the precipitation in China. Adv Atmos Sci 16:229–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhu YF (2008) An index of East Asian winter monsoon applied to the description of China’s mainland winter temperature changes (in Chinese). Acta Meteorol Sin 66:781–788

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors thank the three anonymous reviewers whose constructive comments are helpful for improving the overall quality of the paper. This research is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants 2012CB955901, 2013CB430203, and 2014CB953900), the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (No. GYHY201406018), LASW State Key Laboratory Special Fund (2013LASW-A05), and Guangdong Province Funds for China National “Thousand-Talent Plan” (No. YCJ2013-196).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Song Yang.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sun, C., Yang, S., Li, W. et al. Interannual variations of the dominant modes of East Asian winter monsoon and possible links to Arctic sea ice. Clim Dyn 47, 481–496 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2851-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2851-3

Keywords

Navigation