Abstract
East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems that affect the eastern seaboard of Australia. They have attracted research interest for both their destructive nature and water supplying capability. Estimating the changes in ECLs in the future has a major impact on emergency response as well as water management strategies for the coastal communities on the east coast of Australia. In this study, ECLs were identified using two large-scale diagnostic quantities: isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) and geostrophic vorticity (GV), which were calculated from outputs of historical and future regional climate simulations from the NSW/ACT regional climate modelling (NARCliM) project. The diagnostic results for the historical period were evaluated against a subjective ECL event database. Future simulations using a high emission scenario were examined to estimate changes in frequency, duration, and intensity of ECLs. The use of a relatively high resolution regional climate model makes this the first study to examine future changes in ECLs while resolving the full range of ECL sizes which can be as small as 100–200 km in diameter. The results indicate that it is likely that there will be fewer ECLs, with weaker intensity in the future. There could also be a seasonal shift in ECLs from cool months to warm months. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the water security on the east coast of Australia.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bridgman H (1985) The Sygna storm at Newcastle—12 years later. Meteorol Aust, VBP 4574, 10–16
Browning S, Goodwin I (2013) Large scale influences on the evolution of winter subtropical maritime cyclones affecting Australia’s east coast. Mon Weather Rev. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00312.1
Chen J, Brissette FP, Poulin A, Leconte R (2011) Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed. Water Resour Res 47:W12509
Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B (2011) Large-scale indicators of Australian East Coast Lows and associated extreme weather events. CAWCR technical report 37
Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B (2013a) Large-scale diagnostics of extratropical cyclogenesis in eastern Australia. Int J Climatol 33(10):2318–2327. doi:10.1002/joc.3599
Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B, Wang Y (2013b) Changes in the risk of extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia. J Clim 26(4):1403–1417. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00192.1
Dowdy AJ, Mills GA, Timbal B, Wang Y (2014) Fewer large waves for eastern Australia due to decreasing storminess. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2142
Evans JP, Ji F (2012a) Choosing GCMs. NARCliM technical note 1, NARCliM Consortium, Sydney, Australia, 7 pp
Evans JP, Ji F (2012b) Choosing the RCMs to perform the downscaling. NARCliM technical note 2, NARCliM Consortium, Sydney, Australia, 8 pp
Evans JP, Ekstrom M, Ji F (2012) Evaluating the performance of a WRF physics ensemble over South-East Australia. Clim Dyn 39:1241–1258. doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1244-5
Evans JP, Ji F, Abramowitz G, Ekstrom M (2013a) Optimally choosing small ensemble members to produce robust climate simulations. Environ Res Lett 8:044050. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044050
Evans JP, Fita L, Argüeso D, Liu Y (2013b) Initial NARCliM evaluation. In Piantadosi J, Anderssen RS, Boland J (eds) MODSIM2013, 20th international congress on modelling and simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2013, pp 2765–2771. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-3-1
Evans JP, Ji F, Lee C, Smith P, Argüeso D, Fita L (2014) Design of a regional climate modelling projection ensemble experiment—NARCliM. Geosci Model Dev 7(2):621–629. doi:10.5194/gmd-7-621-2014
Garde LA, Pezza AB, Tristram Bye JA (2010) Tropical transition of the 2001 Australian Duck. Mon Weather Rev 138:2038–2057. doi:10.1175/2009MWR3220.1.
Giorgi F, Jones C, Asrar GR (2009) Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull 58:175–183
Holland GJ, Lynch AH, Leslie LM (1987) Australian east-coast cyclones. Part I: synoptic overview and case study. J Clim 115:3024–3036
Hopkin LC, Holland GJ (1997) Australian heavy-rain days and associated east coast cyclones: 1958–92. J Clim 10:621–635. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<0621:AHRDAA>2.0.CO;2
Imielska A, Alexander L, Timbal B (2012) Extreme rainfall variability on the eastern Seaboard of Australia. In: AMOS annual conference 2012 abstract book, p 145
IPCC (2000) IPCC special report on emission scenarios. In: Nakicenovic N, Swart R. Cambridge University Press, UK
Ji F, Evans JP, Ekstrom M (2011) Using dynamical downscaling to simulation rainfall for East Coast Low events. In: Chan F, Marinova D, Anderssen RS (eds) MODSIM2011, 19th international congress on modelling and simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2011, pp 1652–1658. ISBN: 978-0-9872143-1-7. www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2011/F5/ji.pdf
Ji F, Ekstrom M, Evans JP, Teng J (2014) Evaluating rainfall patterns using physics scheme ensembles from a regional atmospheric model. Theoret Appl Climatol 115:297–304. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0904-2
Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
Leslie LM, Speer MS (1998) Short-range ensemble forecasting of explosive Australian east coast cyclogenesis. Weather Forecast 13(3):822–832. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<0822:SREFOE>2.0.CO;2
McInnes K, Leslie L, McBride J (1992) Numerical simulation of cut-off lows on the Australian east coast: sensitivity to sea-surface temperature. Int J Climatol 12:783–795
Mills GA, Webb R, Davidson N, Kepert J, Seed A, Abbs D (2010) The Pasha Bulker east coast low of 8 June 2007. CAWCR technical report no. 23. Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia
Murphy B, Timbal B (2008) A review of recent climate variability and climate change in south-eastern Australia. Int J Clim 28:859–879. doi:10.1002/joc.1627
Pepler AS, Rakich CS (2010) Extreme inflow events and synoptic forcing in Sydney catchments. IOP Conf Ser: Earth Environ Sci 11:012010. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/11/1/012010
Pepler AS, Coutts-Smith A (2012) Climatological influences on rainfall on the Easteran Seaboard of Australia, and the impact of East Coast Lows, AMOS annual conference 2012 abstract book, p 143
PWD (1985) Elevated coastal levels; storms affecting N.S.W. coast 1880–1980. Report prepared by Blain, Bremner & Williams Pty Ltd in conjunction with Weatherex Meteorological Services Pty Ltd. Public Works Department. Report no 85041
PWD (1986) Elevated coastal levels; storms affecting N.S.W. coast 1980–1985. Report prepared by Lawson and Treloar Pty Ltd in conjunction with Weatherex Meteorological Services Pty Ltd. Report no 8602
Qi L, Leslie L, Speer M (2006) Climatology of cyclones over the southwest Pacific: 1992–2001. Meteorol Atmos Phys 91:201–209. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0149-4
Risbey JS, Pook MJ, McIntosh PC, Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia. Mon Weather Rev 137:3233–3253. doi:10.1175/2009MWR2861.1
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Duda M, Huang XY, Wang W, Powers JG (2008) A Description of the advanced research WRF version 3. NCAR technical note, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Speer MS, Wiles P, Pepler A (2009) Low pressure systems off the New South Wales coast and associated hazardous weather: establishment of a database. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58:29–39
Speer MS, Leslie LM, Fierro AO (2011) Australian east coast rainfall decline related to large scale climate drivers. Clim Dyn 36:1419–1429. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0726-1
Teng J, Vaze J, Chiew FHS, Wang B, Perraud J-M (2012) Estimating the relative uncertainties sourced from GCMs and hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff. J Hydrometeorol 13(1):122–139
Timbal B (2010) The climate of the eastern seaboard of Australia: a challenging entity now and for future projections. In: IOP conference series: earth and environmental science, vol 11, p 012013
Uppala SP et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q J R Meteorol Soc 131:2961–3012. doi:10.1256/qj.04.176
Verdon-Kidd DC, Kiem AS, Willgoose G, Haines P (2010) East Coast Lows and the Newcastle/Central Coast Pasha Bulker storm. Report for the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, Australia
Acknowledgments
This work is made possible by funding from the NSW Environmental Trust for the ESCCI-ECL project, the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage backed NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling Project (NARCliM), and the Australian Research Council as part of the Future Fellowship FT110100576 and Linkage Project LP120200777. We thank Acacia Pepler and Andrew Dowdy for providing subjective analysed ECL data and useful discussions. The modelling work was undertaken on the NCI high performance computers in Canberra, Australia, which is supported by the Australian Commonwealth Government.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ji, F., Evans, J.P., Argueso, D. et al. Using large-scale diagnostic quantities to investigate change in East Coast Lows. Clim Dyn 45, 2443–2453 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2481-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2481-9