Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The observed North Atlantic multi-decadal variability for the period 1872–2009 is reconstructed with the Max Planck Institute ocean model, which is forced with an ensemble of the atmospheric twentieth century reanalysis. Special emphasis is put on the early part of the experiments, which includes a prominent climate variation during the 1920s. The experiments are in agreement with selected hydrographic records, indicating a transition from cold and fresh North Atlantic water properties, prior to the 1920 climate variation, towards warm and saline waters afterwards. Examining the variation reveals that sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies prior to the 1900s resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and associated weak winds result in a weak North Atlantic Current (NAC) and sub-polar gyre (SPG). This leads to a reduced transport of warm and saline waters into the higher latitudes. Simultaneously, Arctic freshwater release results in the accumulation of cold and fresh water properties, which cover the upper layers in the Labrador Sea and subsequently suppress convection. From the 1910s, the Arctic freshwater export is reduced, and, NAC and SPG are strengthened as a result of an increased SLP gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allan R, Ansell T (2006) A new globally complete monthly historical gridded mean sea level pressure dataset (HadSLP2): 1850–2004. J Clim 19:5816–5842

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allan R, Brohan P, Compo GP, Stone R, Luterbacher J, Bronnimman S (2011) The international atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the earth (ACRE) initiative. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:1421–1425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L (1980) On the use of time sequence of surface pressure in four-dimensional data assimilation. Tellus 32:189–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Semenov V, Johannessen OM (2004) The early 20th century warming in the Arctic—a possible mechanism. J Clim 17:4045–4057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bersch M, Yashayaev I, Koltermann KP (2007) Recent changes of the thermohaline circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. Ocean Dyn 57:223–235

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S (2009) Early twentieth-century warming. Nat Geosci 2:735–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S, Compo GP (2012) Ozone highs and associated flow features in the first half of the twentieth century in different data sets. Meteorol Zeit 21:49–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S, Martius O, von Waldow H, Welker C, Luterbacher J, Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD, Usbeck T (2012a) Extreme winds at northern mid-latitudes since 1871. Meteorol Zeit 21:13–27

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S, Grant AN, Compo GP, Ewen T, Griesser T, Fischer AM, Schraner M, Stickler A (2012b) A multi-data set comparison of the vertical structure of temperature variability and change over the Arctic during the past 100 years. Clim Dyn 39:1577–1598

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD (2010) Removing ENSO-related variations from the climate record. J Clim 23:1957–1978. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2735.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD (2006) Feasibility of a 100-year reanalysis using only surface pressure data. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:175–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Whitaker JS, Sardeshmukh PD, Matsui N, Allan RJ, Yin X, Gleason BE, Vose RS, Rutledge G, Bessemoulin P, Brönnimann S, Brunet M, Crouthamel RI, Grant AN, Groisman PY, Jones PD, Kruk MC, Kruger AC, Marshall GJ, Mauger M, Mok HY, Nordli Ø, Ross TF, Trigo RM, Wang XL, Woodruff SD, Worley SJ (2011) The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Compo GP, Sardeshmukh PD, Whitaker JS, Brohan P, Jones PD, McColl C (2013) Independent confirmation of global land warming without the use of station temperatures. Geophys Res Let. doi:10.1002/grl.50425

    Google Scholar 

  • Cunningham SA, Kanzow T, Rayner D, Baringer MO, Johns WE, Marotzke J, Longworth HR, Grant EM, Hirschi JJ-M, Beal LM, Meinen CS, Bryden HL (2007) Temporal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. Nature 317:35–937

    Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, eljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Holm EV, Isaksen L, Kallberg P, Kohler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette J-J, Park B-K, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thepaut J-N, Vitart F (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

  • Delworth TL, Mann ME (2000) Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 16:661–676

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson R, Lazier J, Meincke J, Rhines P, Swift J (1996) Long-term coordinated chnages in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Prog Oceanog 38:241–295

  • Dickson R, Yashayaev I, Meincke J, Turrell B, Dye S, Holfort J (2002) Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 416:832–836

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Donat MG, Renggli D, Wild S, Alexander LV, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U (2011) Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in European storminess since 1871. Geophy Res Lett 38:L14703. doi:10.1029/2011GL047995

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dooley HD, Martin JH, Ellett JD (1984) Abnormal hydrographic conditions in the Northeast Atlantic during the 1970s. Rapports et Proces-Verbaux des Reunions Conseil International pour l`Exploration de la Mer 185:179–187

  • Drinkwater KF (2006) The regime shift of the 1920s and 1930 in the North Atlantic. Prog Oceanogr 68:134–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eden C, Jung T (2001) North Atlantic interdecadal variability: ocean response the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865–1997). J Clim 14:676–691

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eden C, Willebrand J (2001) Mechanism of interannual to decadal variability on the North Atlantic circulation. J Clim 14:2266–2280

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frankcombe LM, Dijkstra HA (2011) The role of Atlantic–Arctic exchange in North Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Geophys Res Let 38. doi:10.1029/2011GL048158

  • Giese BS et al (2010) The 1918/1919 El Niño. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:177–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffies SM, Biastoch A, Böning C, Bryan F, Danabasoglu G, Chassignet EP, England MH, Gerdes R, Haak H, Hallberg RW, Hazeleger W, Jungclaus J, Large WG, Madec G, Pirani A, Samuels BL, Scheinert M, Gupta AS, Severijns CA, Simmons HL, Treguier AM, Winton M, Yeager S, Yin J (2009) Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (COREs). Ocean Model 26:1–46

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haak H (2004) Simulation of low-frequency climate variability in the North Atlantic and Arctic. PhD Thesis, MPI-M reports on earth system science 1:1:124

  • Haak H, Jungclaus J, Mikolajewicz U, Latif M (2003) Formation and propagation of great salinity anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 30. doi:10.1029/2003GL017065

  • Hakkinen S, Rhines PB, Worthen DL (2011) Atmospheric blocking and Atlantic multidecadal ocean variability. Science 334:655–659

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johannessen OM, Bengtsson L, Miles MW, Kuzmina SI, Semenov VA, Alekseev GV, Nagurnyi AP, Zakharov VF, Bobylev LP, Pettersson LH, Hasselmann K, Cattle HP (2004) Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability. Tellus 56A:328–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones PD, Harpham C, Briffa KR (2012) Lamb weather types derived from reanalysis products. Int J Climatol 33:1129–1139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Latif M, Mikolajewicz U (2005) Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. J Clim 18:4013–4031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19:3952–3972

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kister R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kanzow T, Cunningham SA, Johns WE, Hirschi JJM, Marotzke J, Baringer MO, Meinen CS, Chidichimo MP, Atkinson C, Beal LM, Bryden HL, Collins J (2010) Seasonal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N. J Clim 23:5678–5698

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koenigk T, Mikolajewicz U, Haak H, Jungclaus JH (2008) Modeling the sea ice export through Fram Strait. In: Dickson B, Meincke J, Rhines P (eds) Arctic-Subarctic Ocean fluxes—defining the role of the Northern Seas in climate. Chapter 8. Springer, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  • Krüger O, Schenk F, Feser F, Weisse R (2013) Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations. J Clim 26:868–874

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee SK, Park W, van Sebille E, Baringer MO, Wang C, Enfield DB, Yeager SG, Kirtman BP (2011) What caused the significant increase in the North Atlantic heat content since the mid 20th century? Geophys Res Lett 38. doi:10.1029/2011GL048856

  • Matei D, Baehr J, Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Müller WA, Marotzke J (2012) Multiyear prediction of monthly mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5ºN. Science 335:76–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nuñez-Riboni I, Bersch M, Haak H, Jungclaus JH, Lohmann K (2012) A multi-decadal meridional displacement of the Subpolar Front in the Newfoundland Basin. Ocean Sci 8:91–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oberhuber J (1988) An atlas based on the COADS data set: The budget of heat, buoyancy and turbulent kinetic energy at the surface of the global ocean. Technical report 15, Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie (MPI)

  • Oberhuber JM (1993) Simulation of the Atlantic circulation with a coupled sea ice-mixed layer-isopycnal general circulation model. Part I: model description. J Phys Ocean 23:808–829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Olsen SM, Hansen B, Quadfasel D, Østerhus S (2008) Observed and modelled stability of overflow across the Greenland–Scotland ridge. Nature 455:519–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pegion K, Sardeshmukh PD (2011) Prospects for improving subseasonal predictions. Mon Weather Rev 139:3648–3666

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polyakov IV, Bekryaev R, Alekseev GV, Bhatt US, Colony RL, Johnson M, Makshtas AP, Walsh D (2003) Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875–2000. J Clim 16:2067–2077

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polyakov IV, Bhatt US, Simmons HL, Walsh D, Walsh JE, Zhang X (2005) Multidecadal variability of North Atlantic temperature and salinity during the twentieth century. J Clim 18:4562–4581

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polyakov IV, Alexeev VA, Belchansky GI, Dmitrenko I, Ivanov VV, Kirillov S, Korablev A, Steele M, Timokhov L, Yashayev I (2008) Arctic Ocean freshwater changes over the past 100 years and their causes. J Clim 21:364–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polyakov IV, Alexeev VA, Bhatt US, Polyakova EI, Zhang X (2010) North Atlantic warming: pattern of long-term trend and multi-decadal variability. Clim Dyn 34:439–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray S, Giese BS (2012) Historical changes in El Niño and La Niña characteristics in an ocean reanalysis. J Geophys Res 117:11007. doi:10.1029/2012JC008031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reverdin G (2010) North Atlantic subpolar gyre surface variability (1895–2009). J Clim 23:4571–4584

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reverdin G, Cayan D, Dooley HD, Ellett DJ, Levitus S, du Penhoat Y, Dessier A (1994) Surface salinity of the North Atlantic: can we reconstruct its fluctuations over the last one hundred years? Prog Oceanogr 33:303–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter TO, Peeters FJC, van Weering TCE (2009) Late Holocene surface water temperature and variability, Feni Drift, NE Atlantic Ocean. Quat Sci Rev 28:1941–1955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robson J, Sutton R, Lohmann K, Smith D, Palmer M (2012) The causes of the rapid warming in the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s. J Clim 25:4116–4134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers JC (1985) Atmospheric circulation changes associated with the warming over the northern North Atlantic in the 1920s. J Clim 24:1303–1310

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmith T, Hansen C (2003) Fram Strait ice export during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries reconstructed from a multiyear sea ice index from southwestern Greenland. J Clim 16:2782–2791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smed J (1943) Annual and seasonal variations in the salinity of the North Atlantic surface waters. Conseil Permanent International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, Proces et Verbaux 112:77–94

  • Sutton R, Dong B (2012) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat Geosci 5:788–792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang XL, Feng Y, Compo GP, Swail VR, Zwiers FW, Allan RJ, Sardeshmukh PD (2013) Trends and low frequency variability of extra-tropical cyclone activity in the ensemble of twentieth century reanalysis. Clim Dyn 40:2775–2800

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitaker JS, Hamill TM (2002) Ensemble data assimilation without perturbed observations. Mon Weather Rev 130:1913–1924

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whitaker JS, Compo GP, Thépaut J-N (2009) A comparison of variational and ensemble-based data assimilation systems for reanalysis of sparse observations. Mon Weather Rev 137:1991–1999

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wood KR, Overland JE (2010) Eraly 20th century Arctic warming in retrospect. Int J Climatol 30:1269–1279

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu P, Haak H,Wood R, Jungclaus JH, Furevik T (2008) Simulating the terms in the Arctic hydrological budget. In: B Dickson, J Meincke, P Rhines (eds) Arctic-Subarctic Ocean fluxes—defining the role of the Northern Seas in climate. Chapter 8. Springer, Berlin

  • Yashayaev I, Lazier JRN, Clarke RA (2003) Temperature and salinity in the central Labrador Sea. ICES Mer Symp Ser 219:3239

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We thank the German Computing Centre (DKRZ) for the provision of computing resources. This research was supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the MiKlip (MultiClip 01LP1158A, DroughtClip 01LP1145A) and RACE projects and by the German Science Foundation (DFG) funded project CliSAP. G.P. Compo is supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy and the NOAA Climate Program Office. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project used resources of the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center and the NERSC Science Gateway managed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and of the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which are supported by the Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231 and Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725, respectively. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (DOE INCITE) program, and Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. We further thank Sabine Kümmerle and Davide Zanchettin for useful suggestions and Thorben Schmith for the provision of the freshwater reconstructions. Special thanks is addressed to Jeffrey Whittaker for assistance providing the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany

    W. A. Müller, D. Matei, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann & J. Marotzke

  2. University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

    M. Bersch

  3. University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, USA

    G. P. Compo & P. D. Sardeshmukh

  4. Physical Sciences Division, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA

    G. P. Compo & P. D. Sardeshmukh

Authors
  1. W. A. Müller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. D. Matei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. M. Bersch
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. J. H. Jungclaus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. H. Haak
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. K. Lohmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. G. P. Compo
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. P. D. Sardeshmukh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. J. Marotzke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to W. A. Müller.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Müller, W.A., Matei, D., Bersch, M. et al. A twentieth-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct the North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s. Clim Dyn 44, 1935–1955 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation