Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

The influence of stochasticism on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its impact on prediction

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Output from a multi-millennial control simulation of the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled model has been used to investigate quantitatively the relation between the Indian summer monsoon rain and El Nino/Southern Oscillation events. A moving window correlation between these two features revealed marked interannual and multi-decadal variability with the correlation coefficient varying between −0.8 and +0.2. This suggests that current observations showing a decline in this correlation are due to natural climatic variability. A scatter diagram of the anomalies of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and NINO 3.4 surface temperature showed that in almost 40 % of the cases ENSO events were associated with rainfall anomalies opposite to those implied by the climatological correlation coefficient. Case studies and composites of global distributions of surface temperature and rainfall anomalies for El Nino (or La Nina) events highlight the opposite rainfall anomalies over India that can result from very similar ENSO surface temperature anomalies. Composite differences are used to demonstrate the unique sensitivity of Indian summer monsoon rainfall anomalies to ENSO events. The problem of predicting such anomalies is discussed in relation to the fact that time series of the monsoon rainfall, both observed and simulated, consist of white noise. Based on the scatter diagram it is concluded that in about 60 % of the cases seasonal or annual prediction of monsoon rainfall based on individual ENSO events will result in the correct outcome. Unfortunately, there is no way, a priori, of determining for a given ENSO event whether the correct or a rogue prediction will result. Analysis of the present model’s results suggest that this is an almost world-wide problem for seasonal predictions of rainfall.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Annamalai H, Hamilton K, Sperber KR (2007) The south Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J Clim 20:1071–1092

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen W, Dong B, Lu R (2010) Impact of the Atlantic Ocean on the multidecadal fluctuation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation—South Asian monsoon relationship in a coupled general circulation model. J Geophys Res 115:D17109. doi:10.1029/2009JD013596

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Collins M, Tett SFB, Cooper C (2001) The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre couple model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 17:61–81

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crutchfield JP, Farmer JD, Packard NH, Shaw RS (1986) Chaos. Sci Am 256:46–57

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deardorff JW (1977) A parameterization of ground-surface moisture content for use in atmospheric prediction models. J Appl Meteor 16:1182–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips A, Bourdette V, Teng H (2012) Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim Dyn 38:527–546

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J (2004) A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon-Eurasian snow cover relationship. J Clim 17:1110–1122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Vinayachandran PN, Francis PA, Gadgil S (2004) Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12213. doi:10.1029/2004GL019733

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gadgil S, Rajeevan M, Nanjundiah R (2005) Monsoon prediction—why get another failure? Curr Sci 88:1389–1400

    Google Scholar 

  • Gent PR, McWilliams JC (1990) Isopyenal mixing in ocean circulation models. J Phys Oceanogr 20:150–155

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gershunov A, Schneider N, Barnett T (2001) Low-frequency modulation of the ENSO-Indian monsoon rainfall relationship: signal or noise. J Clim 14:2486–2492

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goosse H, Renssen H, Timmermann A, Bradley RS (2005) Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations. Quat Sci Rev 24:1345–1360

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon HB, O’Farrell SP (1997) Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Mon Wea Rev 125:875–907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2005) Dynamics of “internal” interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM. J Geophys Res 110:D24104. doi:10.1029/2005JD006042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Madhusoodanan MS, Neema CP, Sengupta D (2006a) A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 33:L02706. doi:10.1029/2005GL024803

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswami BN, Wu G, Yasunari T (2006b) The annual cycle, intraseasonal oscillations and roadblock to seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 19:5078–5098

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hahn D, Shukla J (1976) An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J Atmos Sci 33:2461–2462

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoyos CD, Webster PJ (2007) The role of intraseasonal variability in the nature of Asian monsoon precipitation. J Clim 20:4402–4424

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2004) The stationarity of global mean climate. Int J Climatol 24:795–806

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2006) The medieval warm period, the little ice age and simulated climatic variability. Clim Dyn 27:677–694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2007) A climatology of heat waves from a multimillennial simulation. J Clim 20:3802–3821

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2009) Natural climatic variability and the Norse settlements in Greenland. Clim Change 97:389–407

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2011) Global characteristics of extreme winters from a multi-millennial simulation. Cli Dyn 37:1501–1515

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG (2012) Stochastic control of Indian megadroughts and megafloods. Cli Dyn 39:1801–1821

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG, Elliott TI (2006) Climatic trends. Clim Dyn 26:567–585

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hunt BG, Watterson I (2010) The temporal and spatial characteristics of surrogate tropical cyclones from a multi-millennial simulation. Clim Dyn 34:699–718

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ihara C, Kushnir Y, Cane MA, Kaplan A (2008) Timing of El Nino-related warming and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. J Clim 21:2711–2719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang I-S, Lee J-Y, Park C-K (2004) Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J Clim 17:834–844

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim H-J, Wang B, Ding Q (2008) The global monsoon variability simulated by CMIP3 coupled climate models. J Clim 21:5271–5294

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Yang S (2002) Recent change in the connection from the Asian monsoon to ENSO. J Clim 15:1203–1215

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnamurthy V, Goswami BN (2000) Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. J Clim 13:579–595

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishnan R, Sugi M (2003) Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsson rainfall. Clim Dyn 21:233–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2007) Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic: the “weakening” of the 1980s and 1990s. J Clim 20:4255–4266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F, Bracco A, Yoo JH, Molteni F (2008) Atlantic forced component of the Indian monsoon interannual variability. Geophys Res Lett 35:L04706. doi:10.1029/2007GL033037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kucharski F et al (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: skill of simulating Indian monsoon rainfall on interannual to decadal timescales: does GHG forcing play a role? Clim Dyn 33:615–627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni A, Sabade SS, Kripalani RH (2009) Spatial variability of intra-seasonal oscillations during extreme Indian Monsoon. Int J Climatol 29:1945–1955

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni A, Kripalani RH, Sabade SS, Rajeevan M (2011) Role of intra-seasonal oscillations in modulating Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Clim Dyn 36:1005–1021

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Cane MA (1999) On the weakening relationship between the Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:2156–2159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar KK, Rajagopalan B, Hoerling M, Bates G, Cane M (2006) Unravelling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Nino. Science 314:115–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin J-L et al (2008) Subseasonal variability associated with Asian summer monsoon simulated by 14 IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs. J Clim 21:4541–4567

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGregor JL, Gordon HB, Watterson IG, Dix MR, Rotstayn LD (1993) The CSIRO 9-level atmospheric general circulation model. CSIRO division of atmospheric research tech paper 26, p 89

  • Neena JM, Suhas E, Goswami BN (2011) Leading role of internal dynamics in the 2009 Indian summer monsoon drought. J Geophy Res 116:D13103. doi:10.1029/2010JD015328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pant GB, Parthasarathy B (1981) Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon. Arch Meteorol Geophys Bioclimatol 1329:245–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peings Y, Douville H, Terray P (2009) Extended winter Pacific North America oscillation as a precursor of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 36:L11710. doi:10.1029/2009GL038453

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rajeevan M, Unnikrishnan CK, Preethi B (2012) Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of Indian summer monsoon variability. Clim Dyn 38:2257–2274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramage CS (1983) Teleconnections and the siege of time. J Climatol 3:223–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1983) The relationship between the eastern Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka. Mon Wea Rev 111:354–384

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ratnam JV, Behera SK, Mascumoto Y, Takahashi K, Yamagata T (2010) Pacific Ocean origin for the 2009 Indian summer monsoon failure. Geophys Res Lett 37:L07807. doi:10.1029/2010GL042798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ropeleweki CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Mon Wea Rev 115:1606–1626

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J (1998) Predictability in the midst of chaos: a scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science 282:728–731

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796–799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sontakke NA, Pant GB, Singh N (1993) Construction of All-India summer monsoon rainfall series for the period 1844–1991. J Clim 6:1807–1811

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sontakke NA, Singh N, Singh HN (2008) Instrumental period rainfall time series of the Indian region (1813-2005): revised reconstruction, update and analysis. Holocene 18:1055–1066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Barcilon A, Fan Z (1999) Stochastic dynamics of El Nino-Southern Oscillation. J Atmos Sci 56:5–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webster PJ, Magana VO, Palmer TN, Shukla J, Tomas RA, Yanai M, Yasunari T (1998) Monsoons: processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J Geophys Res 103(C7):14451–14510

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang J, Lui Q, Xie S-P, Liu Z, Wu L (2007) Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 34:L02708. doi:10.1029/2006GL028571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou T et al (2009) The CLIVAR C20C project: which components of the Asian-Australian monsoon circulation variations are forced and reproducible? Clim Dyn 33:1051–1068

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

It is a particular pleasure to thank Martin Dix for his assistance with technical aspects of the figures and analysis.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, VIC, 3195, Australia

    B. G. Hunt

Authors
  1. B. G. Hunt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to B. G. Hunt.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hunt, B.G. The influence of stochasticism on Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its impact on prediction. Clim Dyn 42, 2271–2285 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2119-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2119-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation