Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The fourth version of the atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) model developed at the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM4) is used to investigate the mechanisms influencing the Arctic freshwater balance in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. The freshwater influence on the interannual variability of deep winter oceanic convection in the Nordic Seas is also studied on the basis of correlation and regression analyses of detrended variables. The model shows that the Fram Strait outflow, which is an important source of freshwater for the northern North Atlantic, experiences a rapid and strong transition from a weak state toward a relatively strong state during 1990–2010. The authors propose that this climate shift is triggered by the retreat of sea ice in the Barents Sea during the late twentieth century. This sea ice reduction initiates a positive feedback in the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system that alters both the atmospheric and oceanic circulations in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN)-Barents Seas sector. Around year 2080, the model predicts a second transition threshold beyond which the Fram Strait outflow is restored toward its original weak value. The long-term freshening of the GIN Seas is invoked to explain this rapid transition. It is further found that the mechanism of interannual changes in deep mixing differ fundamentally between the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. This difference is caused by the dominant influence of freshwater over the twenty-first century. In the GIN Seas, the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater export out of the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait combined with the interannual changes in the liquid freshwater import from the North Atlantic are shown to have a major influence in driving the interannual variability of the deep convection during the twenty-first century. South of Iceland, the other region of deep water renewal in the model, changes in freshwater import from the North Atlantic constitute the dominant forcing of deep convection on interannual time scales over the twenty-first century.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aagaard K, Carmack EC (1989) The role of sea ice and other fresh water in the Arctic circulation. J Geophys Res 94:14485–14498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexander MA, Bhatt US, Walsh JE, Timlin MS, Miller JS, Scott JD (2004) The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. J Clim 17:890–905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arfeuille G, Mysak LA, Tremblay L-B (2000) Simulation of the interannual variability of the wind-driven Arctic sea-ice cover 1958–1988. Clim Dyn 16:107–121

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bengtsson L, Semenov VA, Johanessen OA (2004) The early twientieth-century warming in the Arctic. A possible mechanism. J Clim 17:4045–4057

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bitz CM, Roe GH (2004) A mechanism for the high rate of sea ice thinning in the Arctic Ocean. J Clim 17:3623–3631

    Google Scholar 

  • Blindheim J (1989) Cascading of Barents Sea bottom water into the Norwegian Sea. Rapp P-V Reun Const Int Explor Mer 17:161–189

    Google Scholar 

  • Bryden HL, Longworth HR, Cunningham SA (2005) Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25N. Nature 438:655–657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavalieri DJ, Parkinson CL, Vinnikov KY (2003) 30-year satellite record reveals contrasting Arctic and Antarctic decadal sea ice variability. Geophys Res Lett 30. doi:10.1029/2003GL018931

  • Coachman LK, Aagaard K (1966) On the water exchange through Bering Strait. Limnol Oceanogr 11:44–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry R, Dickson B, Yashayaev I (2003) A change in the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 426:826–829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Curry R, Mauritzen C (2005) Dilution of the northern North Atlantic in recent decades. Science 308:1772–1774

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson B, Yashayaev I, Meincke J, Turrell B, Dye S, Holfort J (2002) Rapid freshening of the deep North Atlantic Ocean over the past four decades. Nature 416:832–837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson KW, Brown R (1994) The production of North Atlantic deep water—sources, rates and pathways. J Geophys Res 12:319–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Dickson RR, Meincke J, Malmberg S, Lee AJ (1988) The “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the northern North Atlantic. Prog Oceanogr 20:103–151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson R, Lazier J, Meincke J, Rhines P, Swift J (1996) Long-term coordinated changes in the convective activity of the North Atlantic. Prog Oceanogr 38:241–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dickson RR, Dye S, Karcher M, Meincke J, Rudels B, Yashayaev I (2006) Current estimates of freshwater flux through Arctic and subarctic seas. Prog Oceanogr (in press)

  • Dufresne J-L, Quaas J, Boucher O, Denvil S, Fairhead L (2005) Contrasts in the effects on climate of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols between the 20th and the 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi:10.1029/2005GL023619

  • Emery WJ, Fowler CW, Maslanik JA (1997) Satellite-derived maps of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice motion: 1988 to 1994. Geophys Res Lett 24:897–900

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fahrbach E, Meincke J, Osterhus S, Rohardt G, Schauer U, Tverberg V, Verduin J (2001) Direct measurements of volume transports through Fram Strait. Polar Res 20:217–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fichefet T, Morales Maqueda MA (1997) Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J Geophys Res 102:12609–12646

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fichefet T, Poncin C, Goosse H, Huybrechts P, Janssens I, Le Treut H (2003) Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century. Geophys Res Lett 30. doi:10.1029/2003GL017826

  • Ganachaud A, Wunsch C (2000) Improved estimates of global ocean circulation, heat transport and mixing from hydrographic data. Nature 407:453–457

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goosse H, Holland M (2005) Mechanisms of decadal Arctic climate variability in the Community Climate System Model CCSM2. J Clim 18:3552–3570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goosse H, Selten FM, Haarsma RJ, Opsteegh JD (2002) A mechanism of decadal variability of the sea-ice volume in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim Dyn 19:61–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goosse H, Selten FM, Haarsma RJ, Opsteegh JD (2003) Large sea-ice volume anomalies simulated in a coupled climate model. Clim Dyn 20:523–536

    Google Scholar 

  • Gregory JM, Dixon KW, Stouffer RJ, Weaver AJ, Driesschaert E, Eby M, Fichefet T, Hasumi H, Hu A, Jungclaus JH, Kamenkovich IV, Levermann A, Montoya M, Murakami S, Nawrath S, Oka A, Sokolov AP, Thorpe RB (2005) A model of intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi:10.1029/2005GL023209

  • Hakkinen S (1999) A Simulation of thermohaline effects of a great salinity anomaly. J Clim 12:1781–1795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen B, Turrell WR, Osterhus S (2001) Decreasing overflow from the Nordic seas into the Atlantic Ocean through the Faroe Bank channel since 1950. Nature 411:927–930

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holland MM, Bitz CM (2003) Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim Dyn 21:221–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holland MM, Bitz CM, Eby M, Weaver A (2001) The role of ice-ocean interactions in the variability of the North-Atlantic thermohaline circulation

  • Houghton JT et al (2001) IPCC 2001, Climate Change (2001) The scientific basis, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 881 pp

  • Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, Dufresne J-L, Fairhead L, Filiberti M-A, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix J-Y, Krinner G, LeVan P, Li ZX, Lott F (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parameterized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Clim Dyn 19:3445–3482

    Google Scholar 

  • Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Mikolajewicz U, Latif M (2005) Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the meridional overturning circulation. J Clim 18:4016–4034

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kerr RA (2005) The Atlantic Conveyor may have slowed, but don’t panic yet. Science 310:1403–1404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knight JR, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233

  • Koenigk T, Mikolajewicz U, Haak H, Jungclaus J (2005) Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model

  • Krinner G, Niovy N, Noblet-Ducoudré N, Ogée J, Polcher J, Friedlingstein P, Ciais P, Sitch S, Prentice IC (2005) A dynamic global vegetation model for studies of the coupled atmosphere-biosphere system. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 19, GB1015. doi:10.1029/2003GB002199

  • Kwok R, Cunningham GF, Pang SS (2004) Fram Strait sea ice outflow. J Geophys Res 109. doi:10.1029/2003JC001785

  • Latif M, Boning C, Willebrand J, Biastoch A, Dengg J, Keenlyside N, Schweckendiek U (2006) Is the thermohaline circulation changing? J Clim 19:4631–4637

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levitus S, Burgett R, Boyer TP (1994) World Ocean Atlas 1994. Volume 3: Salinity. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 3. US Deptartment of Commerce, Washington, DC

  • Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M, Lévy M (1998) OPA 8.1, Ocean General Circulation Model reference manual, Notes du pôle de modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), France, vol 11, 91 pp

  • Magnusdottir G, Deser C, Saravanan R (2004) The effects of North Atlantic SST and Sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part I Main features and storm track characteristics of the response. J Clim 17:857–876

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manabe S, Stouffer RJ (1995) Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by fresh-water input into the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature 378:165–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marti O, Braconnot P, Bellier J, Benshila R, Bony S, Brockmann P, Cadule P, Caubel A, Denvil S, Dufresne J-L, Fairhead L, Filiberti MA, Foujols M-A, Fichefet T, Friedlingstein P, Goosse H, Grandpeix J-Y, Hourdin F, Krinner G, Lévy C, Madec G, Musat I, de Noblet N, Polcher J, Talandier C (2005) The new IPSL climate system model: IPSL-CM4. Note du pôle de modélisation, 26, ISSN 1288–1619, 2005. http://www.igcmg.ipsl.jussieu.fr/Doc/IPSLCM4/

  • Mauritzen C, Hakkinen S (1997) Influence of sea ice on the thermohaline circulation in the Arctic-North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 24:3257–3260

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meredith MP, Heywood K, Dennis P, Goldson L, White R, Fahrbach E, Schauer U, Osterhus S (2001) Freshwater fluxes through the western Fram Strait. Geophys Res Lett 28:1615–1618

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moritz RE, Bitz CM, Steig EJ (2002) Dynamics of recent climate change in the Arctic. Science 297:1497–1502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overland JE, Spillane MC, Soreide NN (2004) Integrated analysis of physical and biological pan-Arctic change. Clim Change 63:291–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson BJ, Holmes RM, McClelland JW, Vorosmarty CJ, Lammers RB, Shiklomanov AI, Shiklomanov IA, Rahmstorf S (2002) Increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Science 298:2171–2173

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pickart RS, Straneo F, Moore GWK (2003) Is Labrador Sea Water formed in the Irminger basin? Deep Sea Res 50:23–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Prinsenberg SJ, Hamilton J (2005) Monitoring the volume, freshwater and heat fluxes passing through Lancaster Sound in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Atmos Oceans 43:1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108. doi:10.1029/2000JC000542

  • Renssen H, Goosse H, Fichefet T (2002) Modeling the effect of freshwater pulses on the early Holocene climate: the influence of the high-frequency climate variability. Paleocanography 17. doi:10.1029/2001PA000649

  • Rothrock DA, Yu Y, Maykut GA (1999) Thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophys Res Lett 26:3469–3472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Russel GL, Rind D (1999) Response to CO2 transient increase in the GISS coupled model: regional coolings in a warming climate. J Clim 12:531–539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaeffer M, Selten FM, Opsteegh (2002) Intrinsic limits to predictability of abrupt regional climate change in IPCC SRES scenarios. Geophys Res Lett 29. doi:10.1029/2002GL015254

  • Schaeffer M, Selten FM, Opsteegh JD, Goosse H (2004) The influence of ocean convection patterns on high-latitude climate projections. J Clim 17:4316–5329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sciremammano F (1979) A suggestion for the presentation of correlations and their significance levels. J Phys Oceanogr 9:1273–1276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serreze MC et al (2000) Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Clim Change 46:157–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serreze MC, Barrett AP, Slater AG, Woodgate RA, Aagaard K, Lammers RB, Steele M, Moritz R, Meredith M, Lee CM (2006) The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic. J Geophys Res 111. doi:10.1029/2005JC003424

  • Stouffer RJ, Broccoli AJ, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Gudgel R, Held I, Hemler R, Knutson T, Lee H-C, Schwarzkopf MD, Soden B, Spelman MJ, Winton M, Zeng F (2006) GFDL’s CM2 global coupled climate models. Part IV Idealized climate response. J Clim 19:723–740

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Swingedouw D, Braconnot P, Delecluse P, Guilyardi E, Marti O (2006) Sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to global freshwater forcing. Clim Dyn (published online). doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0171-3

  • Valcke S, Declat D, Redler R, Ritzdorf H, Schoenemeyer T, Vogelsang R (2004) Proceedings of the 6th international meeting: high performance computing for computational science, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia, Spain. The PRISM Coupling and I/O System. VECPAR’04

  • Vellinga M, Wood RA (2002) Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Clim Change 54:251–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vinje T (2001) Fram Strait ice fluxes and atmospheric circulation 1950–2000. J Clim 14:3508–3517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vinje T, Nordlund N, Kvambekk A (1998) Monitoring ice thickness in Fram Strait. J Geophys Res 103:10437–10449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodgate RE, Aagaard K (2005) Revising the Bering Strait freshwater flux into the Arctic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi:10.1029/2004GL021747

  • Wu B, Wang J, Walsh JE (2006) Dipole anomaly in the winter Arctic atmosphere and its association with sea ice motion. J Clim 19:210–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu P, Wood R, Stott P (2004) Does the recent freshening trend in the North Atlantic indicate a weakening of the thermohaline circulation? Geophys Res Lett 31. doi:10.1029/2003GL018584

  • Wu P, Wood R, Stott P (2005) Human influence on increasing Arctic river discharges. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi:10.1029/2004GL021570

Download references

Acknowledgments

Didier Swingedouw kindly provided several Ferret routines for the analysis. We would like to thank Penny Ajani for having made wording suggestions on a final draft of this paper. H. Goosse is Research Associate with the Belgian National Fund for Scientific Research. This work was conducted within the European project ENSEMBLES (ENSEMBLE-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts) and the Action Concertée Incitative Changement Climatique et Cryosphère funded by the French Ministry of Research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate and Environmental Dynamics Laboratory, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia

    Olivier Arzel

  2. Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître, Université catholique de Louvain, 2 Chemin du Cyclotron, 1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    Thierry Fichefet & Hugues Goosse

  3. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace UPMC/CNRS, 4, place Jussieu, Paris, France

    Jean-Louis Dufresne

Authors
  1. Olivier Arzel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Thierry Fichefet
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Hugues Goosse
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jean-Louis Dufresne
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Olivier Arzel.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Arzel, O., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H. et al. Causes and impacts of changes in the Arctic freshwater budget during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries in an AOGCM. Clim Dyn 30, 37–58 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-007-0258-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation