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Impacts of the Autumn Arctic Sea Ice on the Intraseasonal Reversal of the Winter Siberian High

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Abstract

During 1979–2015, the intensity of the Siberian high (SH) in November and December–January (DJ) is frequently shown to have an out-of-phase relationship, which is accompanied by opposite surface air temperature and circulation anomalies. Further analyses indicate that the autumn Arctic sea ice is important for the phase reversal of the SH. There is a significantly positive (negative) correlation between the November (DJ) SH and the September sea ice area (SIA) anomalies. It is suggested that the reduction of autumn SIA induces anomalous upward surface turbulent heat flux (SHF), which can persist into November, especially over the Barents Sea. Consequently, the enhanced eddy energy and wave activity flux are transported to mid and high latitudes. This will then benefit the development of the storm track in northeastern Europe. Conversely, when downward SHF anomalies prevail in DJ, the decreased heat flux and suppressed eddy energy hinder the growth of the storm track during DJ over the Barents Sea and Europe. Through the eddy–mean flow interaction, the strengthened (weakened) storm track activities induce decreased (increased) Ural blockings and accelerated (decelerated) westerlies, which makes the cold air from the Arctic inhibited (transported) over the Siberian area. Therefore, a weaker (stronger) SH in November (DJ) occurs downstream. Moreover, anomalously large snowfall may intensify the SH in DJ rather than in November. The ensemble-mean results from the CMIP5 historical simulations further confirm these connections. The different responses to Arctic sea ice anomalies in early and middle winter set this study apart from earlier ones.

摘 要

1979-2015年冬季11月与12月-次年1月(12-1月)的西伯利亚高压(SH)强度常常呈现反相关系, 同时伴随有显著相反的表面温度和大气环流异常. 进一步的分析表明秋季北极海冰异常对上述SH反转现象存在影响. 秋季9月份北极海冰面积与11月(12-1月)西伯利亚高压强度存在显著的正(负)相关关系. 秋季海冰的减少导致巴伦支海区域向上的表面湍流热通量(SHF)增加, 这种向上的异常可持续到11月份, 由此导致局地扰动动能增加以及向临近中-高纬地区的波能量输送, 这有利于欧洲东部, 北部地区风暴轴的发展加强; 然而, 在接下来的12-1月份, 巴伦支海的SHF呈现向下的异常, 减少的热通量导致湍流扰动动能受到抑制, 阻碍了风暴轴的发生发展. 通过瞬变扰动-平均流的相互作用过程, 加强(减弱)的风暴轴活动造成乌拉尔山阻塞频率减少(增加), 纬向西风加速(减速), 不利于(有利于)北极的冷空气到达西伯利亚地区, 进而造成了SH在11月(12-1月)的减弱(增强). 此外, 12-1月份异常偏多的降雪可能进一步加强了该月份的SH, 相比之下11月份降雪的增加并不明显. 基于CMIP5历史模拟的集合平均结果进一步证明了上述关系. 不同于以往研究, 本文指出北极海冰对冬季早期和中期气候的影响存在差异.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600703), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41505073 and 41605059), the Research Council of Norway–supported project SNOWGLACE (Grant No. 244166/E10), and the Young Talent Support Program of the China Association for Science and Technology (Grant No. 2016QNRC001). This study is also a contribution to the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Zhuozhuo Lü & Huijun Wang

  2. Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Zhuozhuo Lü & Huijun Wang

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Zhuozhuo Lü

  4. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5007, Norway

    Shengping He

  5. NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, 2007, Norway

    Fei Li

  6. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Huijun Wang

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Lü, Z., He, S., Li, F. et al. Impacts of the Autumn Arctic Sea Ice on the Intraseasonal Reversal of the Winter Siberian High. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 36, 173–188 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-8089-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-8089-8

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