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Variations of snow petrel breeding success in relation to sea-ice extent: detecting local response to large-scale processes?

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Abstract

Demographic parameters were estimated for snow petrels Pagodroma nivea nesting at the study colony of Reeve Hill near Casey station, Antarctica between 1984 and 2003. Average breeding success for the colony varied from 18.2% to 76.5%. Breeding effort, hatching and fledging success were subject to a high interannual variability. We examined the influence of regional sea-ice extent on the breeding performance of snow petrels at Reeve Hill. Fewer birds were breeding when sea-ice had been extensive during April–May. Overall breeding success and fledging success were improved during years with extensive sea-ice cover in winter. Successful breeding effort and breeding success were depressed when there was extensive sea-ice cover during January–February. Sea surface temperatures also correlated to snow petrel breeding performance parameters. Previous work showed that large-scale climatic events (ENSO, Antarctic circumpolar wave) and the related sea-ice cover around the Antarctic might affect the lower trophic levels of the marine environment and consequently food availability for snow petrels. A comparison with the long-term study conducted at Ile des Pétrels (Terre Adélie) suggests that despite similarities in the underlying biological processes that control snow petrel breeding performance, the nature of the correlation of large-scale environmental factors with breeding performance differs substantially between the two colonies, probably because of the confounding effects of other environmental factors acting at a local scale (local weather, nest quality), which also affect bird body condition.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to L. Belbin, G. Jackson and B. Raymond for their comments on an early draft. B. Raymond also provided very valuable help for sea-ice data processing and Dr S. Wotherspoon helped with some of the statistical analysis of the data. We thank three anonymous reviewers, who kindly suggested improvements to the original manuscript. We are grateful to A. Beinssen, P. Bell, A. Breed, G. Browning, E. Bulling, S. Creet, C. Deacon, T. Donohue, R. Givney, A. Hackett, O. Hentschel, M. Hovenden, A. Jackson, A. Lee, T. Maddern, B. Matheson, T. Montague, P. Nicholls, M. Pertout, S. Pearce, A. Post, J. Reynolds, J. Stark, R. Seppelt, D. Simon, A. Watson, R. Watzl, G. Browning and many unnamed Casey personnel for their participation in the Reeve Hill long-term monitoring program. This project is now part of an ongoing program on long-term monitoring of bird populations supported by the Antarctic Science Advisory Committee (ASAC project 1219).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Antarctic and Southern Ocean Studies, c/ University of Tasmania, Private Bag 77, Hobart, 7001, Tasmania, Australia

    Frederique Olivier & Eric J. Woehler

  2. ALTERRA Texel, PO Box 167, 1790 AD Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands

    Jan A. van Franeker & Jeroen C. S. Creuwels

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  1. Frederique Olivier
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  2. Jan A. van Franeker
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  3. Jeroen C. S. Creuwels
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  4. Eric J. Woehler
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Correspondence to Frederique Olivier.

Appendix 1

Appendix 1

Methods used for the comparison of breeding parameters obtained for a constant subset of nests and a varying number of nests at Reeve Hill between 1984 and 2002.

Logistic regression was used for four of the five reproductive performance parameters studied. Data were separated into two groups: group A, the subset of 42 nests and group B, all the remaining nests (this number varied from year to year). A logistic regression model of the form logit(pi_ij)=M + Year_i + Group_j was fitted. With this model, M was a constant, Year was treated as a factor (not as a covariate), and the significance of the term group (A or B) was tested. Analyses were conducted for breeding effort, hatching success, fledging success and breeding success. The four analyses compared the fit of the model that allowed the proportion of success to vary between years and between groups to the fit of the model that only allowed the proportion of success to vary between years. Group A and B did not differ significantly in breeding effort, hatching success, or breeding success (P>0.1 for each model). For fledging success, the dataset on which the fit of the models was tested was greatly reduced due to the presence of null values (0 fledging against 0 egg hatched in group B). The difference between groups was significant (P=0.020), but is not clear which years were associated with group differences and the reduced number of data points (only nine) limits conclusions. Overall, we are confident that breeding performance parameters obtained for a subset of nests consistently checked were not significantly different from those obtained for the entire study colony (with a varying number of nests). Thus, in order to remain consistent with the study at Ile des Pétrels, all subsequent analyses and results presented, in this paper, were conducted with breeding performance parameters calculated for the entire study colony.

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Olivier, F., Franeker, J.A.v., Creuwels, J.C.S. et al. Variations of snow petrel breeding success in relation to sea-ice extent: detecting local response to large-scale processes?. Polar Biol 28, 687–699 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-005-0734-5

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