Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

  • Published:
Environmental Management Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beek AT, Voß F, Florke M (2011) Modeling the impact of global change on the hydrological system of the Aral Sea basin. Phys Chem Earth 36:684–695

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burger J (2008) Environmental management: integrating ecological evaluation, remediation, restoration, natural resource damage assessment and long-term stewardship on contaminated lands. Sci Total Environ 400(1–3):6–19

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cao LJ, Zhang Y, Ying S (2011) Climate change effect on hydrological processes over the Yangtze River basin. Quatern Int 244:202–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YN, Xu ZX (2005) Plausible impact of global climate change on water resources in the Tarim River Basin. Sci China Ser. D Earth Sci 48(1):65–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen YN, Ye ZX, Mao XH, Zhang X, Luo JY (2009) Dried-up trend of Tarim River and the countermeasures for mitigation. Arid Land Geogr 32(6):813–820

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen YN, Chen YP, Xu CC, Ye ZX, Li ZQ, Zhu CG, Ma XD (2010a) Effects of ecological water conveyance on groundwater dynamics and riparian vegetation in the lower reaches of Tarim River, China. Hydrol Process 24(2):170–177

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen YN, Xu CC, Hao XM, Li WH, Chen YP, Chenggang Zhu, Ye ZX (2010b) Fifty-year climate change and its effect on annual runoff in the Tarim River Basin, China. Quatern Int 208:53–61

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen ZS, Chen YN, Li BF (2012) Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River Basin in arid region of northwest China. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0680-4

    Google Scholar 

  • Deng MJ (2009) Theory and practice of Tarim River harnessing China. Science Press, Beijing, p 7, 272

  • Gu CL, Hu LQ, Zhang XM, Wang XD, Guo J (2011) Climate change and urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta. Habitat Int 35:544–552

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamid Y, Tashpolat T, Xiong HG (2000) Analysis on annual variation and seasonal change of runoff from water resources utilization in the interior rivers. Geogr Res 19(3):271–276

    Google Scholar 

  • Hao XM, Chen YN, Xu CC, Li WH (2008) Impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Tarim River basin over the last fifty years. Water Resour Manage 22:1159–1171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herrera PM, Hiscock KM (2008) The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain. Hydrol Process 22:73–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hipel KW, Walker SB (2011) Conflict analysis in environmental management. Environmetrics 22(3):279–293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hu AY (2003) Study on hydrological and ecological features of arid inland river and the reasonable water resources development and utilization: a case study in the Tarim River. Xi’an: Chang’an University. pp. 103–110

  • Hu CH, Wang YG, Guo QC, Hu JH (2005) Fluvial process and regulation of the main stem Tarim River. Science Press, Beijing, pp 24–25

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Jiang T, Su BD, Hartmann H (2007) Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961–2000. Geomorphology 85:143–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keith ES, Chan KS, Liu H, Zhang K (2010) Quantifying the effect of land use land cover change on increasing discharge in the Upper Mississippi River. J Hydrol 387:343–345

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lan YC, Zhao GH, Zhang YN et al (2010) Response of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River to climate warming. Quatern Int 226:60–65

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Libor J, Nevelina IP, Masahiro M (2004) The Danube: a case study of sharing international waters. Glob Environ Change 14(1):39–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu YB, Chen YN (2006) Impact of population growth and land-use change on water resources and ecosystems of the arid Tarim River Basin in Western China. Int J Sustain Dev World Ecol 13:1–11

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Q, Cui BS (2011) Impacts of climate change/variability on the streamflow in the Yellow River Basin, China. Ecol Model 222:268–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu ZF, Xu ZX, Huang JX, Charles PS, Fu GB (2010) Impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the headwater catchment of the Tarim River basin, China. Hydrol Process 24:196–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lunchakorn P, Suthipong S, Kyoung WK (2008) The relationship of climatic and hydrological parameters to surface water quality in the lower Mekong River. Environ Int 34:860–866

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moors JE, Groot A, Biemans H (2011) Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India. Environ Sci Policy 14:758–769

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mostert E (2009) International co-operation on Rhine water quality 1945–2008: an example to follow? Phys Chem Earth 34:142–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nezlin PN, Kostianoy GA, Lebedev AS (2004) Interannual variations of the discharge of Amu Darya and Syr Darya estimated from global atmospheric precipitation. J Mar Syst 47:67–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholas P, Brian SI, Joseph HW, Rienk RP (2006) Trends in flood stages: Contrasting results from the Mississippi and Rhine River systems. J Hydrol 331:554–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nunes PJ, Seixas J, Pacheco RN (2008) Vulnerability of water resources, vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds. Hydrol Process 22:3115–3134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peng DZ, Xu ZX (2010) Simulating the Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Tarim River basin by using a modified semi-distributed monthly water balance model. Hydrol Process 24:209–216

    Google Scholar 

  • Peter H, Thomas H, Andreas Z, Richard D (2006) Land use and climatic impacts on the Rhine system (RheinLUCIFS): Quantifying sediment fluxes and human impact with available data. Catena 66:42–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Piao SL, Ciais P, Huang Y et al (2010) The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature 467:43–51

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Ren JH (2005) Effects of water resources exploitation on eco-environment of Heihe River Basin. Bull Soil Water Conserv 25(4):94–96

    Google Scholar 

  • Shen YJ, Chen YN (2010) Global perspective on hydrology, water balance, and water resources management in arid basins. Hydrol Process 24:129–135

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao H, Gemmer M, Bai YG, Su BD, Mao WY (2011) Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change? J Hydrol 400:1–9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang GY, Shen YP, Zhang JG, Wang SD, Mao WY (2010) The effects of human activities on oasis climate and hydrologic environment in the Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Environ Earth Sci 59:1759–1769

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Wang LN, Shao QX, Chen XH, Li Y, Wang DG (2012) Flood changes during the past 50 years in Wujiang River, South China. Hydrol Process 26:3561–3569

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams R, Virginie K, Anja V, Ilona B, Olli M, Juha R, Sirkka T, Joseph A (2012) Assessment of current water pollution loads in Europe estimation of gridded loads for use in global water quality models. Hydrol Process 26:2395–2410

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Xia J, Chen X, Zuo QT (2008) The scientific investigation of riverway renovations and ecological rehabilitation of the Tarim River and reconsideration. J Nat Res 23(5):745–753

    Google Scholar 

  • Xinjiang Government, the Ministry of Water Resources of the People’s Republic of China (2001) Report of short-term integrated management plan in the Tarim River basin

  • Xu HL, Ye M, Song YD, Chen YN (2007) The natural vegetation responses to the groundwater change resulting from ecological water conveyances to the lower Tarim River. Environ Monit Assess 131:37–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu CC, Chen YN, Hamid Y, Tashpolat T, Chen YP, Ge HT, Li WH (2009a) Long-term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin, northwestern China. Hydrol Process 23:2045–2055

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu ZX, Zhao FF, Li JY (2009b) Response of streamflow to climate change in the headwater catchment of the Yellow River basin. Quatern Int 208:62–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu HL, Zhou B, Song YD (2010a) Impacts of climate change on headstream runoff in the Tarim River Basin. Hydrol Res 42(1):20–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu ZX, Liu ZF, Fu GB, Chen YN (2010b) Trends of major hydroclimatic variables in the Tarim River basin during the past 50 years. J Arid Environ 74:256–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang YL, Yan S, Jia BQ, Chen LJ (1996) A preliminary study on the relationship between the environmental evolution and the human activity in the Aibi Lake Area. Chin J Ecol 15(6):43–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Ye M, Xu HL, Song YD (2006) Water utilization and change trend analysis in the Tarim River Basin. Chinese Science Bulletin 51(zl):14–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Ye ZX, Chen YN, Li WH, Yan Y (2009) Effect of the ecological water conveyance project on environment in the lower Tarim River, Xinjiang, China. Environ Monit Assess 149:9–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Cavadias G (2002) Power of the Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. J Hydrol 259:254–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu CY, Tao H, Jiang T (2010) Chen DYQ (2010) Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in the arid regions: a case study of the Tarim River basin, China. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 24:349–358

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou HF, Zhang JB (2005) Analysis on the volume of available water resources and its carrying capacity in Xinjiang China. Arid Land Geography 28(8):756–763

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou HF, Song YD, Hu SJ (2000) Irrigated agriculture and sustainable water management strategies in the Tarim Basin. In: New Approaches to Water Management in Central Asia, Aleppo, pp127–138

  • Zhou HY, Zhang XL, Xu HL, Ling HB, Yu PJ (2012) Influences of climate change and human activities on Tarim River runoffs in China over the past half century. Environ Earth Sci 67:231–241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zuo QT (2006) Effect and risk of ecological water transfusion from Bosteng Lake to Tarim River. Scinetia Geogr Sinica 26(5):564–568

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This study is jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: 2010CB951003), the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No. IRT1180), and the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology (XJDX0206-2011-02), Xinjiang University. Thanks to the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System (http://cdc.cma.gov.cn). Thanks to Professor Zhaodong Feng for his efforts in the language improvement. Special thanks are owed to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their detailed and constructive comments.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, School of Resources and Environmental Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China

    Changchun Xu

  2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, China

    Yaning Chen & Yapeng Chen

  3. College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, China

    Ruifeng Zhao

  4. Office of Flood Control and Drought Relief, Water Resources Department of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi, China

    Hui Ding

Authors
  1. Changchun Xu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yaning Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yapeng Chen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ruifeng Zhao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Hui Ding
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Changchun Xu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Xu, C., Chen, Y., Chen, Y. et al. Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China. Environmental Management 51, 926–938 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0018-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-013-0018-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation