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Different Epidemic Potentials of the HIV-1B and C Subtypes

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Abstract

HIV, the cause of AIDS in humans, is characterized by great genetic heterogeneity. In particular, HIV-1 group M subtypes are responsible for most of the infections worldwide. We investigate the demographic history of HIV-1B and HIV-1C subtypes in South Africa and Brazil using both a parametric and a nonparametric approach based on coalescent theory. Our results show that although both subtypes are spreading exponentially in Brazil, the HIV-1C growth rate is about twice that of Brazilian HIV-1B or South African HIV-1C, providing evidence, for the first time, of a different epidemic potential between two HIV-1 subtypes. The present study not only may have important consequences for devising future vaccination and therapeutic strategies, but also offers additional evidence that skyline plots are indeed a simple and powerful tool for monitoring and predicting the behavior of viral epidemics.

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Acknowledgment

This work was supported by the Flemish Funds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (FWO Grants G.0288.01 and KAN2002 1.5.193.02, Postdoctoral Onderzoeker Contract 530).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California at Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92664, USA

    Marco Salemi & Walter M. Fitch

  2. Molecular Virology and Bioinformatics Unit, Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, and the Nelson Mandela School of Medicine, Durban, South Africa

    Tulio de Oliveira & Sharon Cassol

  3. Laboratorio de Virologia Molecular, Departamento de Genetica, Istituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Marcelo A. Soares & Amilcar Tanuri

  4. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

    Oliver Pybus

  5. Unidade de Genetica, Universidade do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

    Ana T. Dumans

  6. Rega Institute for Medical Research, KULeuven, Leuven, Belgium

    Anne-Mieke Vandamme

Authors
  1. Marco Salemi
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  2. Tulio de Oliveira
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  3. Marcelo A. Soares
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  4. Oliver Pybus
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  5. Ana T. Dumans
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  6. Anne-Mieke Vandamme
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  7. Amilcar Tanuri
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  8. Sharon Cassol
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  9. Walter M. Fitch
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Marco Salemi.

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Reviewing Editor: Dr. Yves Van de Peer

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Salemi, M., de Oliveira, T., Soares, M.A. et al. Different Epidemic Potentials of the HIV-1B and C Subtypes. J Mol Evol 60, 598–605 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00239-004-0206-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00239-004-0206-5

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