Abstract.
The problem of division is one of the most important problems in the emergence of probability. It has been long considered “solved” from a probabilistic viewpoint. However, we do not find the solution satisfactory. In this study, the problem is recasted as a statistical problem. The outcomes of matches of the game are considered as an infinitely exchangeable random sequence and predictors/estimators are constructed in light of de Finetti representation theorem. Bounds of the estimators are derived over wide classes of priors (mixing distributions). We find that, although conservative, the classical solutions are justifiable by our analysis while the plug-in estimates are too optimistic for the winning player.
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Acknowledgement. The authors would like to thank the referees for the insightful and informative suggestions and, particularly, for referring us to important references.
Supported by NSC-88-2118-M-259-009.
Supported in part by NSC 89-2118-M-259-012.
Received August 2002
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Tsao, C., Tseng, YL. A statistical treatment of the problem of division. Metrika 59, 289–303 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s001840300285
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001840300285