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A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave

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International Journal of Public Health

Abstract

Objectives

To characterize excess mortality during a major heat wave in California and its regions; to assess the validity of a simple method.

Methods

We calculated mortality rate ratios for the heat-wave period, using a reference period of the same number of days from the same summer. We conducted alternative analyses and compared our results with those from a time-series model.

Results

We estimated 655 excess deaths, a 6% increase (95% confidence interval, 3–9%), impacting varied geographic/climate regions. Alternate analyses supported model validity.

Conclusions

California experienced excess heat-wave related mortality not restricted to high heat regions. As climate change is anticipated to increase heat events, public health efforts to monitor effects assume greater importance.

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Correspondence to Sumi Hoshiko.

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The views expressed are those of the authors and may not necessarily represent the policies of the California Department of Public Health.

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Hoshiko, S., English, P., Smith, D. et al. A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave. Int J Public Health 55, 133–137 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8

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