Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA

  • Published:
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

As yet, the application of an uncertainty and variability analysis is not common practice in LCAs. A proper analysis will be facilitated when it is clear which types of uncertainties and variabilities exist in LCAs and which tools are available to deal with them. Therefore, a framework is developed to classify types of uncertainty and variability in LCAs. Uncertainty is divided in (1) parameter uncertainty, (2) model uncertainty, and (3) uncertainty due to choices, while variability covers (4) spatial variability, (5) temporal variability, and (6) variability between objects and sources. A tool to deal with parameter uncertainty and variability between objects and sources in both the inventory and the impact assessment is probabilistic simulation. Uncertainty due to choices can be dealt with in a scenario analysis or reduced by standardisation and peer review. The feasibility of dealing with temporal and spatial variability is limited, implying model uncertainty in LCAs. Other model uncertainties can be reduced partly by more sophisticated modelling, such as the use of non-linear inventory models in the inventory and multi media models in the characterisation phase.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Albritton, D., R. Derwent, I. Isaksen, M. Lal &D. Wuebblk (1996): Trace gas radiative forcing indices. In:Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N. Harris, A. Kattenberg &K. Maskell. Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. University Press, Cambridge, London, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Andersson-Sköld, Y., P. Grennfelt &K. Pleijel (1992): Photochemical ozone creation potentials: a study of different concepts. J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 42 (9): 1152–1158

    Google Scholar 

  • Beccali, G., M. Beccali amp:M. Cellura (1997): Fuzzy set application in life cycle inventory of building materials. Paper. Building and the Environment: Proceedings of the Second International Conference. Volume 1: Assessment methods and natural resources. Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment, Paris, France

    Google Scholar 

  • Boustead, I. (1993): Eco-profiles of the European plastics industry. Report 3: polyethylene and polypropylene. A report for the European Centre for Plastics in the Environment (PWMI), Brussels, Belgium

    Google Scholar 

  • Bretz, R. &P. Frankhauser (1996): Screening LCA for large number of products: estimation tools to fill data gaps. Int. J. LCA 1 (3): 139–146

    Google Scholar 

  • Chevalier, J.L. &J.F. Le Téno (1996): Life cycle analysis with illdefined data and its application to building products. Int. J. LCA 1 (2): 90–96

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Decisioneering Inc. (1996): Crystal Ball version 4.0. Forecasting and risk analysis for spreadsheet users. Denver, Colorado, USA

  • Funtowics, S.O. &J.R. Ravetz (1990): Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Guinée, J.,R. Heijungs,L. van Oers,D. van de Meent,T. Vermeire &M. Rikken (1996): LCA impact assessment of toxic releases. Generic modelling of fate, exposure and effect for ecosystems and human beings with data for about 100 chemicals. Publication serie: Product policy 1996/21. Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment, The Hague, The Netherlands

  • Hanssen, O.J. &O.A. Asbjørnsen (1996): Statistical properties of emission data in life cycle assessments. J. Cleaner Prod. 4 (3-4): 149–157

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heijungs, R.,J.B. Guinee,G. Huppes,R.M. Lankreijer,H.A. Udo de Haes,A. Wegener Sleeswijk,A.M.M. Ansems,A.M.M. Eggels,R. van Duin & H.P. de Goede (1992): Environmental life cycle assessment of products. Guidelines and backgrounds. Centre of Environmental Science, Leiden, The Netherlands

  • Heijungs, R. (1996): Identification of key issues for further investigation in improving the reliability of life cycle assessments. J. Cleaner Prod. 4 (3-4): 159–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoffman, L. B.P. Weidema, K. Kristiansen &A.K. Ersbøll (1995): Statistical analysis and uncertainties in relation to LCA. Special reports no. 1. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Google Scholar 

  • Huijbregts, M.A.J. (1998): Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA. Part II: Dealing with parameter uncertainty and uncertainty due to choices in life cycle assessments. Int. J. LCA, in press

  • ISO (1997a): Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — Principles and framework. ISO/FDIS 14040

  • ISO (1997b): Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — Goal and scope definition and inventory analysis. ISO/FDIS 14041

  • ISO (1997c): Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — part 3: Life cycle impact assessment. ISO/CD 14042.3

  • ISO (1997d): Environmental management — Life cycle assessment — Life cycle interpretation. ISO/CD 14043.2

  • Janssen, P.H.M., W. Slob &J. Rotmans (1990): Gevoeligheid-sanalyse en onzekerheidsanalyse: een inventarisatie van idee#x00EB;n, methoden en technieken. Rapport no. 958805001. Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieuhygiëne, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy, D.J., D.C. Montgomery &B.H. Quay (1996): Data quality. Stochastic environmental life cycle assessment modelling. A probabilistic approach to incorporating variable input data quality. Int. J. LCA 1 (4): 199–207

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kortman, J.G.M., R G. Eccels, G. Huppes, L. van Oers, E.W. Lindeijer, B.L. van der Ven &J.B. Guinêe (1996): Inschatting milieu-effecten van de afdankfase van langcyclische produkten. SPA Programma rapportnr. 96.005. Rijksinstituut voor Integraal Zoetwaterbeheer en Afvalwaterbehandeling Werkdocument nr. 96.155x. Lelystad, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Lindfors, L.-G.,K. Christiansen,L. Hoffman,Y. Virtanen,V. Juntilla,O.-J. Hanssen,A. Rønning &T. Ekvali. (1995a): Technical reports no. 1-10. Nordic Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, Denmark

  • Lindfors, L.-G.,K. Christiansen,L. Hoffman,Y. Virtanen,V. Juntilla,O.-J. Hanssen,A. Running &T. Ekvali. (1995b): Nordic guidelines on life-cycle assessment. Nordic Council of Ministers, Nord 1995: 20, Copenhagen, Denmark

  • Lindeijer, E. (1996): Normalisation and valuation. In:H.A. Udo de Haes (ed.), Towards a methodology for life cycle impact assessment. SETAC-Europe, Brussels, Belgium

    Google Scholar 

  • Morgan, M.G. &M. Henrion (1990): A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Nichols, P., M. Hauschild, J. Potting &P. White (1996): Impact assessment of non toxic pollution in life cycle assessment. In:H.A. Udo de Haes (ed.), Towards a methodology for life cycle impact assessment. SETAC-Europe, Brussels, Belgium

    Google Scholar 

  • Owens, J.W. (1996): LCA impact assessment categories: technical feasibility and accuracy. Int. J. LCA 1 (3): 151–158

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Petersen, E.H. (1997): Life-cycle assessment of building components. Handling uncertainties in LCAs. Paper. Building and the Environment: Proceedings of the Second International Conference. Volume 1: Assessment methods and natural resources. Centre Scientifique et Technique du Bâtiment, Paris, France

    Google Scholar 

  • Potting, J. &K. Blok (1994): Spatial aspect of life-cycle impact assessment. In:H.A. Udo de Haes, A.A. Jensen, W. Klöpffer &L.-G. Lindfors (eds.), Integrating impact assessment in LCA, Proceedings of the LCA symposium held at the Fourth SETAC- Europe Congress, 11-14 April 1994, Free University of Brussels (Belgium), SETAC-Europe, Brussels, Belgium

    Google Scholar 

  • Potting, J., W. Schöpp, K. Blok &M. Hauschild (1997): Site-dependent life cycle impact assessment of acidification. In:B.J.M. Ale, M.P.M. Janssen &M.J.M. Pruppers (eds.), Mapping Environmental Risks in Risk Comparison, Book of papers of the International Conference RISK 97, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

  • Powell, J.C., D.W. Pearce &A.L. Craighill (1997): Approaches to valuation in LCA impact assessment. Int. J. LCA 2(1): 11–15

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singhofen, A., C.R. Hemming, B.P. Weidema, L. Grisel, R. Bretz, B. de Smet &D. Russell (1996): Life cycle inventory data: development of a common format. Int. J. LCA 1 (3): 171–178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Solomon, S., D. Wuebbles, I. Isaksen, J. Kiehl, M. Lal, P. Simon &N.-D. Sze (1995): Ozone depletion potentials, global warming potentials and future chlorine/bromine loading. In: Scientific Assessment of ozone depletion: 1994. C.A. Ennis (ed.): World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

    Google Scholar 

  • US-EPA (1997): Exposure Factors Handbook. Volume I, Chapter 2: p 2.1-2.7. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Health and Environmental Assessment, Washington DC, USA

  • Wegener Sleeswijk, A. &R. Heijungs (1996): Modelling fate for LCA. Int. J. LCA 1 (4): 237–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weidema, B.P. &M.S. Wesnæs (1996): Data quality management for life cycle inventories: an example of using data quality indicators. J. Cleaner Prod. 4 (3-4): 167–174

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wrisberg, N., H.A. Udo de Haes, R. Clift, R. Frischknecht, L. Grisel, P. Hofstetter, A.A. Jensen, L.G. Lindfors, F. Schmidt-Bleek &H. Stiller (1997): A strategic research programme for life cycle assessment. Final document for the concerted action LCANET. Centre for Environmental Science (CML), Leiden, The Netherlands

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Interfaculty Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Science, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, NL-1018, VZ Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Mark A. J. Huijbregts

Authors
  1. Mark A. J. Huijbregts
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Huijbregts, M.A.J. Application of uncertainty and variability in LCA. Int. J. LCA 3, 273–280 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02979835

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02979835

Keywords

Search

Navigation