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Numerical Bayesian inference with arbitrary prior

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Abstract

The purpose of the paper, is to explain how recent advances in Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration can facilitate the routine Bayesian analysis of the linear model when the prior distribution is completely user dependent. The method is based on a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a Student-t source distribution that can generate posterior moments as well as marginal posterior densities for model parameters. The method is illustrated with numerical examples where the combination of prior and likelihood information leads to multimodal posteriors due to prior-likelihood conflicts, and to cases where prior information can be summarized by symmetric stable Paretian distributions.

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  1. Council of Economic Advisers Ministry of National Economy, 5 Nikis Street Constitution Square, 10180, Athens, Greece

    Efthymios G. Tsionas

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  1. Efthymios G. Tsionas
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Tsionas, E.G. Numerical Bayesian inference with arbitrary prior. Statistical Papers 41, 437–451 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925762

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925762

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