Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Convolution of fuzzy distributions in decision-making

  • Articles
  • Published:
Statistical Papers Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper deals with a decision-making problem that has hardly been addressed so far. Frequently, management is challenged to deal with sums of random variables, the distribution of which is not fully known. For example, a high return on an investment project may be “more likely” than a low one in the first period but “less likely” in the second period; however, the investment decision has to be based on the sum of the two retums. The paper contains some essential theorems concerning the convolution of distribution functions for the case of fuzzy random variables. Moreover, an example is given illustrating the incorporation of new Linear Partial Information (LPI) and the transition from an a priori to a posteriori convolution of fuzzy distribution functions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bamberg G, Coenenberg A.G. (1981) Betriebswirtschaftliche Entscheidungslehre, Valen, München

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall M.G., Stuart A. (1961) The Advanced Theory of Statistics, C. Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kofler E., Menges G. (1977) Die Strukturierung von Unbestimmtheit und eine Verallgemeinerung des Axiomensystems von Kolmogoroff für unbestimmte Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Statistische Hefte 18(4): 298–302.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Kofler E., Zweifel P. (1981) Decisions under Fuzzy State Distributions, with an Application to the Health Risks of Nuclear Power. Häfele W., Kirchmaier L.K. (eds.) Modeling of Large-Scale Energy Systems, Pergamon, Oxford: 437–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kofler E., Zweifel P. (1988) Exploiting Linear Partial Information for Optimal Use of Forecasts, with an Application to U.S. Economic Policy. International Journal of Forecasting 4: 15–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kofler E. (1989) Prognosen und Stabilität bei unvollständiger Information, Campus, Frankfurt

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität Zürich, Zollikerstr. 137, CH-8008, Zürich, Switzerland

    E. Kofler

  2. Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität 0 Zürich, Zoeinstr. 15, CH-8008, Zürich, Switzerland

    P. Zweifel

Authors
  1. E. Kofler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. P. Zweifel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Revised version of a caper contributed to the Eighth International Symposium on Forecasting, Amsterdam, June 12–15, 1988. The authors would like to acknowledge important criticisms and suggestions by an anonymous referce.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kofler, E., Zweifel, P. Convolution of fuzzy distributions in decision-making. Statistical Papers 32, 123–136 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925486

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02925486

Keywords

Search

Navigation