Summary
Let {X(t)} be a stationary process with mean zero and spectral densityg(x). We shall use akth order parametric spectral modelfτ(k)(x) for this process. Without Gaussianity we can obtain an estiamte of τ(k), say ĝt(k), by maximizing the quasi-Gaussian likelihood of this model. We can then construct the best linear predictor ofX(t), which is computed on the basis of the estimated spectral densityfĝt(k)(x). An asymptotic lower bound of the mean square error of the estimated predictor is obtained. The bound is attained ifk is selected by Akaike's information criterion.
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Taniguchi, M. On selection of the order of the spectral density model for a stationary process. Ann Inst Stat Math 32, 401–419 (1980). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02480345
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02480345