Abstract
The probability of becoming infected with HIV is formulated in terms of the total number of sexual contacts (N), the probability that a sexual act is infectious (r) and the prevalence (p). Using the appropriate equations we studied the effect of reducing each of the risk factors on lowering the probability of infection. We show that for many realistic situations the probability of becoming infected by multiple partners is equal to the probability of becoming infected by one partner in a monogamous relationship given that the prevalence is the same in both cases; however if the multiple partners are chosen over time from a pool of a growing prevalence, then one is better off in a monogamous relationship where that partner is chosen early in the epidemic.
Similar content being viewed by others
Literature
Darrow, W.W., D.F. Echenberg, H.W. Jaffe, P.M. O'Malley, R.H. Byers, J.P. Getchell and J.W. Curran. 1987. “Risk Factors for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Infections in Homosexual Men.”Am. J. Public Health 77, 479–483.
Hearst, N. and S.B. Hulley. “Preventing the Heterosexual Spread of AIDS.”J. Am. med. Assoc. 259, 427–441.
Kootsey, J.M., M.C. Kohn, M.D. Feezor, G.R. Mitchell and P.R. Fletcher. 1986. “SCoP: An Interactive Simulation Control Program for Micro- and Minicomputers.”Bull. math. Biol. 48, 427–441.
May, R.H. and M. Anderson. 1987. “Transmission Dynamics of HIV Infection.”Nature 326, 136–142.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sandberg, S., Awerbuch, T.E. Mathematical formulation and studies of the risk parameters involved in HIV transmission. Bltn Mathcal Biology 51, 467–474 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02460084
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02460084