On the incompatibility of gompertz or weibull survival dynamics with exponentially distributed individual lifespans

Abstract

It is well documented, in the biological literature, that many species throughout the animal kingdom exhibit Gompertzian or Weibull-like population level total survival distributions. Many researchers have long assumed, believed, or otherwise postulated that an individual organism, in such a population, survived according to an exponential survival distribution. Using well-known results from reliability theory, it is shown that if every individual in the population has an exponentially distributed lifespan, then a Gompertzian or Weibull-like group/population level dynamics (or any other dynamics with a strictly increasing mortality rate for some interval) is not possible. This implies that, for species with a population level Gompertzian or Weibull (with the mortality rate strictly increasing) survival curve, some or all of the individual organisms must have non-exponentially distributed lifespans.