Skip to main content
Log in

Runs, scans and URN model distributions: A unified Markov chain approach

  • Published:
Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper presents a unified approach for the study of the exact distribution (probability mass function, mean, generating functions) of three types of random variables: (a) variables related to success runs in a sequence of Bernoulli trials (b) scan statistics, i.e. variables enumerating the moving windows in a linearly ordered sequence of binary outcomes (success or failure) which contain prescribed number of successes and (c) success run statistics related to several well known urn models. Our approach is based on a Markov chain imbedding which permits the construction of probability vectors satisfying triangular recurrence relations. The results presented here cover not only the case of identical and independently distributed Bernoulli variables, but the non-identical case as well. An extension to models exhibiting Markov dependence among the successive trials is also discussed in brief.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Aki, S. (1985). Discrete distributions of orderk on a binary sequence.Ann. Inst. Statist. Math.,37, 205–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aki, S. and Hirano, K. (1988). Some characteristics of the binomial distribution of orderk and related distributions,Statistical Theory and Data Analysis II (ed. K. Matusita), 211–222, North-Holland.

  • Arratia, R. and Waterman, M. S. (1985). Critical phenomena in sequence matching,Ann. Probab.,13, 1236–1249.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chao, M. T., Fu, J. C. and Koutras, M. V. (1995). Survey of reliability studies of consecutive-k-out-of-n: F and related systems,IEEE Transactions on Reliability,44, 120–127.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chryssaphinou, O., Papastavridis, S. and Tsapelas, T. (1993). On the number of overlapping succes runs in a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials,Applications of Fibonacci Numbers,5, 103–112.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dembo, A. and Karlin, S. (1992). Poisson approximations forr-scan processes,Annals of Applied Probability,2, 329–357.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feller, W. (1968).An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1, 3rd ed., Wiley, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freedman, D. (1965). Bernard Friedman's urn,Ann. Math. Statist. 36, 956–970.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freidman, B. (1949). A simple urn model,Comm. Pure Appl. Math.,2, 59–70.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu, J. C. (1994a). Exact and limiting distributions of the number of successions in a random permutation (preprint).

  • Fu, J. C. (1994b). Distribution theory of runs and patterns associated with a sequence of multistate trials, Tech. Report, Department of Statistics, University of Manitoba, Canada.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu, J. C. and Koutras, M. V. (1994). Distribution theory of runs: A Markov chain approach,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,89, 1050–1058.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Gibbons, J. D. (1971).Non Parametric Statistical Inference, McGraw-Hill, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glaz, J. (1989). Approximations and bounds for the distribution of the scan statistic,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,84, 560–566.

    Google Scholar 

  • Glaz, J. and Naus, J. (1991). Tight bounds and approximations for scan statistic probabilities for discrete data,Annals of Applied Probability 1, 306–318.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godbole, A. P. (1990a). Specific formulae for some success run distributions,Statist. Probab. Lett.,10, 119–124.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godbole, A. P. (1990b). On hypergeometric and related distributions of orderk, Comm. Statist. Theory Method,19, 1291–1301.

    Google Scholar 

  • Godbole, A. P. (1991). Poisson approximations for runs and patterns of rare events,Adv. in Appl. Probab.,23, 851–865.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein, L. (1990). Poisson approximation in DNA sequence matching,Comm. Statist. Theory Method,19 (11), 4167–4179.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Greenberg, I. (1970). The first occurrence ofn successes inN trials,Technometrics,12, 627–634.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirano, K. and Aki, S. (1993). On the number of occurrences of success runs of specified length in a two-state Markov chain,Statistica Sinica,3, 313–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirano, K., Kuboki, H., Aki, S. and Kuribayashi, A. (1984). Figures of probability density functions in statistics II—discrete univariate case,Comput. Sci. Monographs, No. 20, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hirano, K., Aki, S., Kashiwagi, N. and Kuboki, H. (1991). On Ling's binomial and negative binomial distributions of orderk, Statist. Probab. Lett.,11, 503–509.

    Google Scholar 

  • Huntington, R. (1978). Distribution of the minimum number of points in a scanning interval on the line,Stochastic Process Appl.,7, 73–77.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karlin, S. and MacKen, C. (1991). Some statistical problems in the assessment of inhomogeneities of DNA sequence data,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,86, 27–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ling, K. D. (1988). On binomial distributions of orderk, Statist. Probab. Lett.,6, 247–250.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lou, W. W. (1995). On runs tests for independence of binary longitudinal data using the method of finite Markov chain imbedding, Ph.D. thesis, Deptartment of Community Health, University of Toronto.

  • Mood, A. M. (1940). The distribution theory of runs,Ann. Math. Statist.,11, 367–392.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mosteller, F. (1941). Note on an application of runs to quality control charts,Ann. Math. Statist.,12, 228–232.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naus, J. (1974). Probabilities for a generalized birthday problem,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,69, 810–815.

    Google Scholar 

  • Naus, J. (1982). Approximations for distributions of scan statistics,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,77, 177–183.

    Google Scholar 

  • Panaretos, J. and Xekalaki, E. (1986). On some distributions arising from certain generalized sampling schemes,Comm. Statist. Theory Method,15, 873–891.

    Google Scholar 

  • Papastavridis, S. G. and Koutras, M. V. (1994). Consecutive-k-out-of-n systems,New Trends in System Reliability Evaluation (ed. K. B. Misra) 228–248, Elsevier, Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pham, D. (1962),Techniques du Calcul Matriciel, Dunod, Paris.

    Google Scholar 

  • Philippou, A. N. and Makri, F. S. (1986). Successes, runs and longest runs,Statist. Probab. Lett.,4, 211–215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rajarshi, M. B. (1974). Success runs in a two-state Markov chain,J. Appl. Probab.,11, 190–194.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saperstein, B. (1972). The generalized birthday problem,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,67, 425–428.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saperstein, B. (1973). On the occurrence ofn successes withinN Bernoulli trials,Technometrics,15, 809–818.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saperstein, B. (1975). Note on a clustering problem,J. Appl. Probab.,12, 629–632.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwager, S. (1983). Run probabilities in sequences of Markov dependent trials,J. Amer. Statist. Assoc.,78, 168–175.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallenstein, S., Naus, J. and Glaz, J. 1994). Power of the scan statistic in detecting a changed segment in a Bernoulli sequence,Biometrika,81, 595–601.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolfowitz, J. (1943). On the theory of runs with some applications to quality control,Ann. Math. Statist.,14, 280–288.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

About this article

Cite this article

Koutras, M.V., Alexandrou, V.A. Runs, scans and URN model distributions: A unified Markov chain approach. Ann Inst Stat Math 47, 743–766 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01856545

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01856545

Key words and phrases

Navigation