Abstract
The inertial motion of the Sun around the barycentre, or centre of mass, of the Solar System has been employed as the base in searching for possible influence of the Solar System as a whole on climatic processes, especially on the changes in surface air temperature. A basic cycle of about 180–200 years and its higher harmonics up to 30 years have been found in surface air temperature of central Europe since 1753, established from 13 continuous instrumental time series. These periods correspond to the periods of solar inertial motion. In the first half of the 19th century, when the solar motion was chaotic, this temperature was about 0.75°C lower than that in the 20th (1940–50) and the 18th (1760–70) centuries. The mentioned decades of long-term temperature maxima coincide with the central decades of the ordered (trefoil) motion of the Sun. The temperatures in coastal Europe have been found to have slightly different properties, especially on a long-time scale. The periods of 35–45 years are significantly pronounced in the coastal Europe temperature spectrum. The chaotic motion of the Sun in the next decades could decrease both the solar forcing and global surface air temperature.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Berger, A., Meligé, J. L. and van der Mersch, I.: 1990, ‘Evolutive Spectral Analysis of Sunspot Data over the Past 300 Years’,Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A330, 529–541.
Blackman, R. D. and Tukey, J. W.: 1958,The Measurement of Power Spectra, Dover Public. Inc., New York.
Bradley, R. S., Kelly, P. M., Jones, P. D., Goodess, C. M., and Diaz, H. F.: 1985,A Climatic Data Bank for Northern Hemisphere Land Areas, 1851–1980, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, D.C.
Briffa, K. R., Bartholin, T. S., Eckstein, D., Jones, P. D., Karlén, W., Schweingruber, F. H., and Zetterberg, P.: 1990, ‘A 1400-year Tree-Ring Record of Summer Temperatures in Fennoscandia’,Nature 346, 434–439.
Briffa, K. R. and Schweingruber, F. H.: 1992, ‘Recent Dendroclimatic Evidence of Northern and Central European Summer Temperatures’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.),Climate since AD. 1500, Routledge, London, pp. 366–391.
Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D., Bartholin, T. S., Eckstein, P., Schweingruber, F. H., Karlén, W., Zettenberg, P., Eronen, M.: 1992, ‘Fennoscandian Summers from A.D. 500: Temperature Changes on Short and Long Time Scales’,Clim. Dynam. 7, 111–119.
Charvátová, I.: 1988, ‘The Solar Motion and the Variability of Solar Activity’,Advanc Space Res. 8, 147–150.
Charvátová, I.: 1989, ‘On the Relation between Solar Motion and the Long Term Variability of Solar Activity’,Studia Geophys. Geod. 33, 230–241.
Charvátová, I.: 1990a, ‘The Relations between Solar Motion and Solar Variability’,Bull. Astr. Inst. Czech. 41, 56–59.
Charvátová, I.: 1990b, ‘On the Relation between Solar Motion and Solar Activity in the Years 1730–80 and 1910–60’,Bull. Astr. Inst. Czech. 41, 200–204.
Charvátová, I.: 1994, ‘Solar Motion and Solar Variability’, inEncyclopedia of Planetary Sciences (main article), Chapman and Hall, New York.
Charvátová, I. and Střeštík, J.: 1991a, ‘Solar Variability as a Manifestation of the Sun's Motion’,J. Atmos. Terr. Phys. 53, 1019–1025.
Charvátová, I. and Střeštík, J.: 1991b, ‘Long Term Variations in Duration of Solar Cycle’,Bull. Astr. Inst. Czech. 42, 90–97.
Charvátová, I. and Střeštík, J.: 1992, ‘A Possible Long-Term Solar Impact on Air Temperature in Relation to Solar Motion’,Studia Geophys. Geod. 36, 338–347.
Charvátová, I. and Střeštík, J.: 1993, ‘Long-Term Climatic Changes in Connection with Solar Motion’, in Ružičková, E., Zeman, A., and Mirecki, J. (eds.),Proc. of workshop “Application of Direct and Indirect Data for the Reconstruction of Climate during the Last Two Millennia”, Brno, June 1992, pp. 47–55.
Charvátová, I and Střeštík, J.: 1994, ‘Changes of ST-phenomena and Surface Air Temperature during the Last Three Centuries in Relation to Solar Inertial Motion’, in Wojcik, G. (ed.),Proc. of Climatological Conference in honor of Prof. Gordzinski, Torun, Poland, September 1993, pp. 30–32.
Courtillot, J., Mouel, L., Ducruix, J., and Cazenave, J.: 1982, ‘Geomagnetic Secular Variation as a Precursor of Climatic Change’,Nature 297, 386–387.
Cress, A. and Schönwiese, C.-D.: 1990, ‘Vulkanische Einflüsse auf die bodennahe und stratosphärische Lufttemperatur der Erde’,Berichte des Instituts für Meteorologie und Geophysik der Universität Frankfurt/Main, Nr.82.
D'Arrigo, R. and Jacoby, G. C.: 1993, ‘Secular Trends in High Northern Latitude Temperature Reconstructions Based on Tree-Ring’,Clim. Change 25, 163–177.
Fairbridge, R. V. and Shirley, J. H.: 1987, ‘Prolonged Minima and the 179-yr Cycle of the Solar Inertial Motion’,Solar Physics 110, 191–220.
Folland, C. K., Parker, D. E., and Kates, F. E.: 1984, ‘World Marine Temperature Fluctuations 1856–1981’,Nature 310, 670–673.
Folland, C. K., Karl, T. R., and Vinnikov, K. Z.: 1990, ‘Observed Climate Variations and Change’, inClimate Change, Cambridge University Press, p. 198.
Foukal, P. and Lean, J.: 1990, ‘An Empirical Model of Total Solar Irradiance Variation between 1874 and 1988’,Science 247, 556–558.
Friis-Christensen, E. and Lassen, K.: 1991, ‘Length of the Solar Cycle: An Indicator of Solar Activity Closely Associated with Climate’,Science 254, 698–700.
Hlaváč, V.: 1966, ‘How Climatic Fluctuations are Manifested in the Prague Temperature Series during the Last 200 Years’,Bull. Météorol. XIX, 33–43, (in Czech).
Hood, L. L. and Jirikovicz, J. L.: 1990, ‘Recurring Variations of Probable Solar Origin in the Atmospheric14C Time Record’,Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 85–88.
Jacoby, G. C. and D'Arrigo, R.: 1989, ‘Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Annual Temperature since 1671 Based on High-Latitude Tree-Ring Data from North America’,Clim. Change 14, 39–59.
Jakubcová, I. and Pick, M.: 1986, ‘The Planetary System and Solar-Terrestrial Phenomena’,Studia Geophys. Geod. 30, 224–235.
Jakubcová, I. and Pick, M.: 1987, ‘Correlation between Solar Motion, Earthquakes and Other Geophysical Phenomena’,Annal. Geophys. 5B, 135–141.
Jinjun, J., Petit-Maire, N., and Zhongwei, Y.: 1993, ‘The Last 1000 Years: Climatic Change in Arid Asia and Africa’,Glob. Planet. Change 7, 203–210.
Johnsen, S. J., Dansgaard, W., Clausen, H. B.: 1970, ‘Climatic Oscillations 1200–2000 A.D.’,Nature 227, 482–483.
Jose, P. D.: 1965, ‘Sun's Motion and Sunspots’,Astr. J. 70, 193–200.
Kelly, P. M. and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1990, ‘The Relative Contribution of Greenhouse and Solar Forcing to Observed Trends in Global Mean Temperature’,Nature 347, 460.
Kelly, P. M. and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1992, ‘Solar Cycle Length, Greenhouse Forcing and Global Climate’,Nature 360, 328–330.
Křivský, L. and Pejml, K.: 1988, ‘Solar Activity, Aurorae and Climate in Central Europe in the Last 1000 Years’,Travaux Géophys. XXXIII (1985)606, 77–152.
Lara, A. and Villalba, R.: 1993, ‘A 3620-Year Temperature Record from Fitzroya cupressoides Tree Rings in Southern South America’,Science 260, 1104–1106.
Manley, G.: 1974, ‘Central England Temperatures: Monthly Means 1659 to 1972’,Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 100, 389.
Mayaud, P. N.: 1977, ‘On the Reliability of the Wolf Number Series for Estimating Long-Term Periodicities’,J. Geophys. Res. 82, 1271–1272.
Ochadlik, A. R., Jr., Kritikos, H. N., and Giegengack, R.: 1993, ‘Variations in the Period of the Sunspot Cycle’,Geophys. Res. Lett. 20, 1471–1474.
Parker, D. E., Legg, T. P., and Folland, C. K.: 1992, ‘A New Daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772–1991’,Int. J. Climat. 12, 317–342.
Rabin, D., Wilson, R. M., and Moore, R. L.: 1986, ‘Bimodality of the Solar Cycle’,Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 352.
Schönwiese, C.-D.: 1987, ‘Moving Spectral Variance and Coherence Analysis and Some Applications on Long Air Temperature Series’,J. Clim. Appl. Meteor. 26, 1723–1731.
Schove, D. J.: 1983,Sunspot Cycles, Hutchinson-Ross, London.
Sonett, C. P.: 1991, ‘Long Period Solar-Terrestrial Variability’,Rev. Geophys., Supplement, U.S. National Report to IUGG, 909–914.
Střeštík, J.: (in press), ‘Calculation of a set of Correlation Coefficients with Sine Functions as a Method for Determining Signal Periodicities’,Studia Geophys. Geod.
Vinnikov, K. Z., Groisman, P. Z., Lugina, K. M., and Golubev, A. A.: 1987, ‘Variations in Northern Hemisphere Mean Surface Air Temperature over 1841–1985’,Meteorol. Hydrol. 1, 45 (in Russian).
Wang, W. C., Portman, D., Gong, G., Zhang, P., and Karl, T.: 1992, ‘Beijing Summer Temperatures since 1724’, in Bradley, R. S. and Jones, P. D. (eds.),Climate since AD. 1500, Routledge, London, pp. 210–223.
Wolf, R.: 1868, ‘Annual Sunspot Data since 1700’,Astronomische Mitt. 24, 111.
World Weather Records, Smithsonian Institution (ed. H. H. Clayton), Washington, 1921–80.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
This research was performed with support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, Grant No. 205/93/0417, I. Charvátová: ‘Prognosis of climate development in central Europe’.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Charvátová, I., Střeštík, J. Long-term changes of the surface air temperature in relation to solar inertial motion. Climatic Change 29, 333–352 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091867
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091867