Abstract
The adaptability of forests in the U.S. midwest to a changing climate is assessed. The forests of Missouri are simulated with a ‘forest-gap’ model, a stochastic model of the annual growth and mortality of trees within mixed-species forest plots. The development of representative forest plots under an analog climate like that of the 1930s is compared to development under baseline climate conditions. With no management response, average forest biomass in the region declines by 11% within ten years, primarily due to moisture-stress induced mortality. Longer term declines in forest productivity on the order of 30% are simulated. A variety of possible management responses through planting or harvesting practices were evaluated. None of these adaptations appear to be practical, although the salvage harvest of stressed trees would offset the economifc losses associated with the early mortality. An investigation of anticipated trends in the broader forest products sector suggests that opportunities for further adaptation to offset the decline in primary productivity of this region's forest are quite limited. However, a shift to wood powered electrical generation in the region might justify a level of management that would allow some adaptation to the analog climate change.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bazzaz, F. A. and Fajer, E. D.: 1992, ‘Plant Life in a CO2-Rich World’,Scient. Amer. 266, No. 1, January, pp. 68–74.
Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., and Wallis, J. R.: 1972, ‘Some Ecological Consequences of a Computer Model of Forest Growth’,J. Ecol. 60, 849–872.
Botkin, D. B., Nisbet, R. A., and Reynales, T. E.: 1989, ‘Effects of Climate Change on Forests of the Great Lake States’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.),The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix D: Forests, PM-221, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Policy, Planning and Evaluation, Washington DC.
Bowes, M. D. and Sedjo, R. A.: 1991, ‘Processes for Identifying Regional Influences of and Responses to Increasing Atmospheric CO2 and Climate Change: Report III - Forest Resources’, U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/RL/01830T-H9, Washington, D.C.
Crutchfield, D. M.: 1988, ‘The 2030 Forest: The Industrial Direction’, Proceedings of the Fifth Biennial Southern Silvicultural Research Conference, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service, General Technical Report SO-74, New Orleans, pp. 5–10.
Davis, M. B. and Zabinski, C.: 1992, ‘Changes in Geographical Range Resulting from Greenhouse Warming - Effects on Biodiversity in Forests’, in Peters, R. L. and Lovejoy, T. (eds.),Consequences of CO 2-Induced Climatic Warming on Biodiversity, Yale University Press, New Haven.
de Steiguer, J. E., Hayden, L. W., Holly, Jr., D. L., Luppold, W. G., Martin, W. G., Newman, D. H., and Sheffield, R. M.: 1989,Southern Appalachian Timber Study, Gen Tech Rep ES-56 SEFES, Asheville, NC, 45 pp.
Geyer, W. A. and Melichar, M. W.: 1986, ‘Short-Rotation Forest Research in the United States’,Biomass 9, 125–133.
National Climate Center (NCC): 1983, ‘Climate Normals for the U.S., Base 1951–80’, Environmental Data and Information Service, NOAA, Detroit, MI.
Perlack, R. D. and Geyer, W. A.: 1987, ‘Wood Energy Plantation Economics in the Great Plains’,J. Energy Engineer. 113, 92–100.
Rehfeld, G. E.: 1991, ‘A Model of Genetic Variation forPinus ponderosa in the Inland Northwest (U.S.A.): Application in Gene Resource Management’,Can. J. For. Res. 21, 1491–1500.
SCS: 1979, ‘Missouri General Soil Map and Soil Association Descriptions’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Soil Conservation Service State Office, Columbia, MO.
Sedjo, R. A.: 1989, ‘Forests: A Tool to Moderate Global Warming’,Environment 31, 15–20.
Sedjo, R. A. and Lyon, K. S.: 1990,The Long-Term Adequacy of World Timber Supply, Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, 230 pp.
Shugart, H. H.: 1984,A Theory of Forest Dynamics: The Ecological Implications of Forest Succession Models, Springer-Verlag, New York, 278 pp.
Solomon, A. M., 1986, ‘Transient Response of Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Simulation Modeling Experiments in Eastern North America’,Oecologia 68, 567–579.
Solomon, A. M. and West, D. C.: 1987, ‘Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Change: Agent of Future Forest Growth or Decline?’ in Titus, J. G. (ed.),Effects of Changes in Stratospheric Ozone and Climate Change, Proceedings of the International Conference on Health and Environmental Effect of Ozone Modification and Climate Change, UNEP and USEPA, Washington D.C., pp. 23–38.
U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA): 1976, ‘Timber in Missouri, 1972’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Resource Bulletin NC-30, St. Paul, MN.
USDA: 1979, ‘Iowa Forest Resources 1974’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Resource Bulletin NC-52, St. Paul, MN.
USDA: 1983, ‘Primary Forest Products Industry and Timber Use - Missouri 1980’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Resource Bulletin NC-71, St. Paul, MN.
USDA: 1984, ‘Kansas Forest Inventory 1981’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Resource Bulletin NC-83, St. Paul, MN.
USDA: 1986, ‘Nebraska's Second Forest Inventory’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Research Bulletin NC-83, St. Paul, MN.
USDA: 1988a, ‘An Analysis of the Timber Situation in the United States 1989–2040 (Draft Report)’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service, Washington, D.C.
USDA: 1988b, ‘U.S. Timber Production, Trade, Consumption, and Price Statistics 1950–1986’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service Misc. Publication No. 1460, Washington, DC.
USDA: 1989, ‘History of Hardwood Decline in the Eastern United States’, U.S. Dept. of Ag. Forest Service General Technical Report NE-126, Broomal, PA.
U.S. Department of Agriculture Soil Conservation Service (SCS): 1978, ‘Land Resource Regions and Major Land Resources Areas of the United States’, Agricultural Handbook 296, Washington, D.C.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
Acknowledgments: Support from the U.S. Department of Energy through the Pacific Northwest Laboratory is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Alan Solomon for providing the FORENA forest simulation model.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bowes, M.D., Sedjo, R.A. Paper 3. impacts and responses to climate change in forests of the mink region. Climatic Change 24, 63–82 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091477
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091477