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Mathematical modeling of the effects of ‘capability’ and ‘intent’ on the stability of a competitive international system

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Abstract

In international relations theory, there is a long history of Richardson-like modeling of the evolution of military capability. Usually, such models are deterministic and predictive and do not allow for the representation of the transition from competitive peace to shooting war. More recently, models have been developed which attempt to represent the evolution of ‘relationship’ between nations. The ‘relationship’ between nations, varying from friendship to hostility, is taken to be synonymous with the ‘intent’ of nations towards each other, varying from good will to malice. Generally, these relationship models do not include ‘capability’ though common sense would indicate that capability and mutual intent should profoundly influence each other. A model is presented here which combines these two fundamental attributes of international relations and attempts to represent the outbreak of war in the world system by the onset of deterministic chaos in the extended model.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics, Wayne State University, 48202, Detroit, MI, USA

    Alvin M. Saperstein

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  1. Alvin M. Saperstein
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On leave 1994–95 at U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, Washington, D.C. 20451, U.S.A.

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Saperstein, A.M. Mathematical modeling of the effects of ‘capability’ and ‘intent’ on the stability of a competitive international system. Synthese 100, 359–378 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01063908

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