Skip to main content
Log in

Bayes or Laplace? An examination of the origin and early applications of Bayes' theorem

  • Published:
Archive for History of Exact Sciences Aims and scope Submit manuscript

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

References

  1. Bayes, T., An Essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transactions 53 (1763), 370–418.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Burnside, W., On Bayes' formula. Biometrika 16 (1924), 189.

    Google Scholar 

  3. Edgeworth, F. Y., The philosophy of chance. Mind 9 (1884), 223–235.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Edwards, A. W. F., Commentary on the arguments of Thomas Bayes. Scand. J. Statist. 5 (1978), 116–118.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Keynes, J. M., A Treatise on Probability. Macmillan & Co., London, 1921. (New edition 1973.)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Laplace, P. S., Mémoire sur la probabilité des causes par les événements (1774). Œuvres compl. t. 8 (1891), 27–65.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Laplace, P. S., Mémoire sur les probabilités, (1778). Œuvres compl. t. 9 (1893), 383–485.

    Google Scholar 

  8. Laplace, P. S., Théorie analytique des probabilités. Paris, 1812, 1814, 1820 and Œuvres compl. t. 7, No. 1–2, 1886.

  9. Lubbock, J. W., & J. E. Drinkwater-Bethune, On probability. Baldwin and Craddock, London, c. 1830.

    Google Scholar 

  10. Maistrov, L. E., Probability Theory: A Historical Sketch. Academic Press, New York, 1974. (Translation of Teoriià Veroiàtnoste46-1 Istoricheski46-2 Ocherk, Izdatel'stvo Nauka, Moscow, 1967.)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Pearson, E. S. (ed.), The History of Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries, against the changing background of intellectual, scientific and religious thought. Lectures by Karl Pearson at University College, London, during the academic sessions 1921–1933. Chas. Griffin & Co., Ltd., London, 1978.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Pearson, K., Note on Bayes' Theorem. Biometrika 16 (1924), 190–193.

    Google Scholar 

  13. Poincaré, H., Calcul des Probabilités. Gauthier-Villars, Paris, 1912 (2nd edition).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Price, R., A demonstration of the second rule in the essay towards the solution of a problem in the doctrine of chances, published in the Philosophical Transactions, Vol. LIII. Philosophical Transactions 54 (1764), 296–325.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Sheynin, O. B., Laplace's theory of errors. Arch. Hist. Ex. Sci. 17 (1977), 1–61.

    Google Scholar 

  16. Stigler, S. M., Napoleonic statistics: the work of Laplace. Biometrika 62 (1975), 503–517.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Timerding, H. E., Versuch der Lösung eines Problems der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung von Thomas Bayes. Ostwalds Klassiker der Exakten Wissenschaft, Nr. 169, Wilhelm Engelman, Leipzig. 1908.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Todhunter, I., A History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability from the Time of Pascal to that of Laplace. Cambridge, 1865 (reprinted New York 1931, 1949, 1965).

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

Communicated by H. Freudenthal

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Dale, A.I. Bayes or Laplace? An examination of the origin and early applications of Bayes' theorem. Arch. Hist. Exact Sci. 27, 23–47 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00348352

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00348352

Keywords

Navigation