Abstract
An observed cubic dependence on time of the cumulative growth in numbers of AIDS patients is shown to be the leading term of a power series in general. The cubic leading term follows from a nearly model-independent description of the rate of HIV infection, provided only that there is a distribution of incubation times to the appearance of clinically diagnosed AIDS symptoms with a finite initial derivative, that none of those infected exhibit immediate indications of illness, and that the epidemic begins with a finite initial rate of infection.
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Harrison, M.J. The cubic growth of AIDS cases: General dependence on early infection rates and distribution of times to appearance of clinical symptoms. J. Math. Biology 27, 523–535 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00288432
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00288432