Abstract
This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential, the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were identified. On the basis of an estimation ofthe potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8–3.48 billion; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US$1.37–79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of gain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.
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