Abstract
Increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other infrared absorbing gases are widely proposed as a mechanism for a global surface warming over the next several decades. Various methods have been used to anticipate the regional climatic changes which might result. In earlier papers Pittock has concluded that for Australia an increase in the extent of the summer rainfall regime is likely, with a decrease in winter rainfall. This is similar to a change which took place over much of Australia in the 1940's.
In this paper a climate scenario, roughly corresponding to the climate which might be expected to occur by about the middle of the twenty-first century, has been used as the input into the ‘Miami Model’ of net primary productivity due to Lieth. Results show that about half of Australia might experience productivity increases in excess of 20%. A small area in the extreme south-west of Australia shows a small decrease in productivity.
The direct response of plants to higher ambient carbon dioxide concentrations, and many other possible effects such as changes in the incidence of plant diseases, pests, and soil erosion have not been assessed.
Whether or not increasing carbon dioxide will lead to further climatic change in the next few decades, the results show that Australian primary productivity is quite sensitive to climatic variations within the range found in the historical records.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Arkin, G. F., Van der Lip, R. L., and Ritchie, J. T.: 1976, ‘A Dynamic Grain Sorghum Model’, Trans. ASAE 19, 622–676.
Baier, W.: 1973, ‘Crop-weather Analysis Model: A Review and Model Development’, J. Applied Meteorol. 12, 937–947.
Baker, C. H. and Horrocks, R. D.: 1976, ‘Cornmod: A Dynamic Simulation of Corn Production’, Agric. Systems 1, 55–77.
Cornish, P. M.: 1977, ‘Changes in Seasonal and Annual Rainfall in New South Wales’, Search 8, 38–40.
Coughlan, M. J.: 1979, ‘Recent Variations in Annual-Mean Maximum Temperatures over Australia’, Q. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 105, 707–719.
Duncan, W. G.: 1975, ‘SIMAIZ: A Model Simulating Growth and Yield in Corn’, in Baker, D. N., Creech, P. G. and Maxwell, F. G. (eds.), An Application of Systems Methods to Crop Production, Mississippi Agric. and Forest Expt. Stn., Miss. State Univ., Mississippi, pp. 32–48.
Emanuel, W. R., Shugart, H. H. and Stevenson, M. P.: 1985, ‘Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes’, Climatic Change 7, 29–43.
Fitzpatrick, E. A. and Nix, H. A.: 1970, ‘The Climatic Factor in Australian Grassland Ecology’, in R. M. Moore (ed.), Australian Grasslands, A.N.U. Press, Canberra.
Frankignoul, C. and Hasselmann, K.: 1977, ‘Stochastic Climate Models, Part II. Application to Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies and Thermocline Variability’, Tellus 29, 289–305.
Gentilli, J.: 1971, ‘Climatic Fluctuations’, in Gentilli, J. (ed.), Climates of Australia and New Zealand, World Survey of Climatology, Vol. 13, Elsevier, pp. 189–211.
Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, P., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’, Mon. Weather Rev. 110, 609–662.
Jäger, J. and Kellogg, W. W.: 1983, ‘Anomalies in Temperature and Rainfall During Warm Arctic Seasons’, Climatic Change 5, 39–60.
LaMarche, V. C. and Pittock, A. B.: 1982, ‘Preliminary Temperature Reconstructions for Tasmania’, in Hughes, M. K., Kelly, P. M., Pilcher, J. R., and LaMarche, V. C. (eds.), Climate from Tree Rings, Cambridge U.P., pp. 177–185.
Lieth, H.: 1975, ‘Modeling the Primary Productivity of the World’, in Lieth, H. and Whittaker, R.H. (eds.), Primary Productivity of the Biosphere, Springer-Verlag New York, pp. 237–263.
Lieth, H.: 1976, ‘Possible Effects of Climate Changes on Natural Vegetation’, in Kopec, R.J. (ed.), Atmospheric Quality and Climatic Change, Studies in Geography, Number 9, Uni. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, pp. 150–159.
Lieth, H.: 1978, ‘Vegetation and CO2 Changes’, in Williams, J. (ed.), Carbon Dioxide, Climate and Society, Pergamon Press, pp. 103–109.
Lieth, H. and Box, E. O.: 1972, ‘Evapotranspiration and Primary Productivity; C. W. Thornthwaite Memorial Model’, Public. in Climatol. 25, (3), 37.
Lough, J. M., Wigley, T. M. L., and Palutikof, J. P.: 1983, ‘Climate and Climate Scenarios for Europe in a Warmer World’, J. Clim. and Applied Meteorol. 7, 1673–1684.
Manabe, S. and Wetherald, R. T.: 1980, ‘On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2 Content of the Atmosphere’, J. Atmos. Sci. 37, 99–118.
Mitchell, J. F. B.: 1983, ‘The Seasonal Response of a General Circulation Model to Changes in CO2 and Sea Surface Temperature’, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 109, 113–152.
Namias, J.: 1980, ‘Some Concomitant Regional Anomalies Associated with Hemispherically Averaged Temperature Variations’, J. Geophys. Res. 85, 1585.
NAS: 1979, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment’, National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC.
NAS: 1984, ‘Report of the Committee on the Atmospheric Effects of Nuclear Explosions’, National Academy of Sciences, Washington DC.
National Defense University: 1980, ‘Crop Yields and Climate Change to the Year 2000, Volume 1’, National Defense University, Fort McNair, Washington DC.
Nix, H. A.: 1975, ‘The Australian Climate and its Effects on Grain Yield and Quality’, in Lazenby, A. A., and Matheson, E. A. (eds.) Australian Field Crops: Wheat and Other Temperate Cereals, Angus and Robertson, Sydney, pp. 183–226.
Nix, H. A.: 1985, ‘Agriculture’, in Kates, R. W., Ausubel, J. H., and Berberian, M. (eds.), Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society, John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 105–130.
NRC: 1983, ‘Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee’, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington DC.
Paltridge, G. and Woodruff, S.: 1981, ‘Changes in Global Sea Surface Temperature from 1880 to 1977 Derived from Historical Records of Sea Surface Temperatures’, Monthly Weather Rev. 109, 2427–2434.
Pittock, A. B.: 1975, ‘Climatic Change and the Patterns of Variation in Australian Rainfall’, Search 6, 498–504.
Pittock, A. B.: 1981, ‘Long Term Climatic Trends in Eastern Australia’, in de Kantzow, D. R. and Sutton, B. G. (eds.), Cropping at the Margin, Austr. Insti. Agric. Sci. and Water Research Foundation, Sydney, pp. 23–39.
Pittock, A. B.: 1983, ‘Recent Climatic Change in Australia: Implications for a CO2-Warmed Earth’, Climatic Change 5, 321–340.
Pittock, A. B.: 1984, ‘Australia and Nuclear Winter’, Search 15, 332–339.
Pittock, A. B., Frakes, L. A., Jenssen, D., Petersen, J.A., and Zillman, J.: 1978, Climatic Change and Variability — A Southern Perspective, Cambridge Uni. Press.
Pittock, A. B., Fraser, P. J. B., and 6 others: 1981, ‘Human Impact on the Global Atmosphere: Implications for Australia’, Search 12, 260–272.
Pittock, A. B. and Salinger, M. J.: 1982, ‘Towards Regional Scenarios for a CO2-Warmed Earth’, Climatic Change 4, 23–40.
Rogers, H. H., Thomas, J. F., and Bingham, G. E.: 1983, ‘Response of Agronomic and Forest Species to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Science 220, 428–429.
Rosenberg, N. J.: 1981, ‘The Increasing CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere and Its Implication on Agricultural Productivity: Effect on Photosynthesis, Transpiration and Water Use Efficiency’, Climatic Change 3, 265–279.
Rosenzweig, M. L.: 1968, ‘Net Primary Productivity of Terrestrial Communities: Prediction from Climatological Data’, Amer. Naturalist 102, 67–74.
Russell, J. S.: 1981, ‘Geographic Variation in Seasonal Rainfall in Australia — an Analysis of the 80-yr Period 1895–1974’, J. Austr. Inst. Agric. Sci. 47, (2), 59–66.
Santer, B.: 1985, ‘The Use of General Circulation Models in Climate Impact Analysis — A Preliminary Study of the Impacts of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change on West European Agriculture’, Climatic Change 7, 71–91.
Thompson, S. L. and Schneider, S. H.: 1982, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Climate: The Importance of Realistic Geography in Estimating the Transient Temperature Response’, Science 217, 1031–1033.
Turco, R. P., Toon, O. B., Ackerman, T. P., Pollack, J. B., and Sagan, C.: 1983, ‘Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions’, Science 222, 1283–1292.
Van Keulen, H.: 1975, ‘Simulation of Water Use and Herbage Growth in Arid Regions’, Simulation Monographs, PUDOC, Wageningen.
Wigley, T. M. L., Jones, P. D., and Kelly, P. M.: 1980, ‘Scenario for a Warm, High-CO2 World’, Nature 283, 17–21.
Williams, J.: 1980, ‘Anomalies in Temperature and Rainfall During Warm Arctic Seasons as a Guide to the Formulation of Climate Scenarios’, Climatic Change 2, 249.
Wittwer, S. H.: 1980, ‘Carbon Dioxide and Climatic Change: An Agricultural Perspective’, J. Soil and Water Cons. 35, 116–120.
Woodwell, G. M.: 1984, ‘The Carbon Dioxide Problem’, in Woodwell, G. M. (ed.) The Role of Terrestrial Vegetation in the Global Carbon Cycle: Measurement by Remote Sensing, John Wiley and Sons, New York, pp. 3–17.
Woodwell, G. M., Hobbie, J. E., and 5 others: 1983, ‘Global Deforestation: Contribution to Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Science 222, 1081–1086.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Pittock, A.B., Nix, H.A. The effect of changing climate on Australian biomass production — a preliminary study. Climatic Change 8, 243–255 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00161597
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00161597