Abstract
The climate model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen et al., 1983) is used to study the sensitivity of sub-Saharan rainfall to Atlantic Ocean SST. Initial changes of SST in the South Atlantic Ocean on March 1st are shown to reduce the June–August sub-Saharan precipitation totals using the model version with an interactive ocean that updates SST. Evidence is offered in support of theories that link Sahel drought with anomalously warm SST in the eastern South Atlantic and the study compares the model's response to spatially coherent SST anomalies with the response to random SST perturbations. The physical processes whereby SST and sea-level pressure synoptics influence the African summer monsoon are discussed in reference to the simulations. Predictibility of Sahel summer rainfall based on spring SST patterns or spring atmospheric circulation patterns is implied by the results. The SST/Sahel drought links are discussed for projections of future climate characteristics.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bhatt, U.: 1989, ‘On Circulation Regimes of Rainfall Anomalies in the African-South Asian Monsoon Belt’, J. Climate 2, 1133–1144.
Druyan, L.: 1987, ‘GCM Studies of the African Summer Monsoon’, Climate Dynamics 2, 117–126.
Druyan, L.: 1988, ‘Sea-surface Temperature-Sahel Drought Teleconnections in GCM Simulations’, in Gregory, S. (ed.), Recent Climatic Change, Ch. 14 Belhaven Press.
Druyan, L.: 1989, ‘Advances in the Study of Sub-Saharan Drought’, International J. Climatology 9, 77–90.
Folland, C., Palmer, T. and Parker, D.: 1986a, ‘Sahel Rainfall and Worldwide Sea Temperatures, 1901–85’, Nature 320, 602–607.
Folland, C., Parker, D., Wigley, T., Jones, P. and Palmer, T.: 1986b, ‘Warming of the Southern Hemisphere in recent decades’, in WCRP Conference on Mechanisms of Interannual and Longer Term Climatic Variations, Melbourne, 8–12 December 1986.
Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Reudy, R. and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 111, 609–662.
Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Reudy, R., Russell, G. and Stone, P.: 1988, ‘Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-dimensional Model’, J. Geophys. Res. 93, 9341–9364.
Lamb, P.: 1978, ‘Large-scale Tropical Atlantic Surface Circulation Patterns Associated with Sub-saharan Weather Anomalies’, Tellus 30, 240–251.
Lamb, P., Peppler, R. and Hastenrath, S.: 1986, ‘Interannual Variability in the Tropical Atlantic’, Nature 322, 238–240.
Lough, J.: 1986, ‘Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Rainfall Variations in Subsaharan Africa’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 114, 561–570.
Nicholson, S.: 1980, ‘The Nature of Rainfall Fluctuations in Subtropical West Africa’, Mon. Wea. Rev. 108, 473–487.
Nicholson, S.: 1988, ‘Land Surface Atmosphere Interaction’, Progress in Physical Geography 12, 36–65.
Owen, J. and Folland, C.: 1988, ‘Modelling the Influence of Sea-surface Temperatures on Tropical Rainfall’, in Gregory, S. (ed.), Recent Climatic Change, Ch. 13 Belhaven Press.
Palmer, T.: 1986, ‘Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans on Sahel Rainfall’, Nature 322, 251–253.
Parker, D., Folland, C. and Ward, M.: 1988, ‘Sea-surface Temperature Anomaly Patterns and Prediction of Seasonal Rainfall in the Sahel Region of Africa’, in Gregory, S. (ed.), Recent Climatic Change, Ch. 15, Belhaven Press.
Ratcliffe, R.: 1988, ‘Recent Climatic Maps - Northern Hemisphere Circulation Review’, J. Climatology 8, 640–643.
Ratcliffe, R.: 1989, ‘Recent Climatic Maps - Northern Hemisphere Circulation Review’, Int. J. Climatology 9, 106–109.
Tourre, Y., Merle, J. and Quilfen, Y: 1989, The Pacific Atlantic Sea-level Pressure Oscillation and the Tropical Atlantic Warm Events, submitted to J. Climate.
Wolter, K.: 1989, ‘Modes of Tropical Circulation, Southern Oscillation and Sahel Rainfall’, J. Climate 2, 149–172.
World Meteorological Organization: 1985, The Global Climate System - a Critical Review of the Climate System During 1982–1984, World Climate Data Program, WMO, Geneva, 52 pp.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Druyan, L.M. The sensitivity of sub-Saharan precipitation to Atlantic SST. Climatic Change 18, 17–36 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142503
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00142503