Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change and Variability in Chitwan: Long-Term Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions

  • Full-Length Research Article
  • Published:
Agricultural Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

A study was conducted to detect climate change and variability using climate records and farmers’ perceptions in Chitwan, Nepal, and to evaluate climatic impacts on small-holder agriculture. Forty years of climatic data (1968–2007) from a weather station at the National Maize Research Program, Rampur, and 15 years of rice, maize, and wheat productivity data (1992–2008) from the District Agriculture Development Office, Chitwan were collected and analyzed using non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and regression analysis. Questionnaire survey was conducted on sixty randomly selected households of Chitwan to understand farmers’ perceptions and adaptations in response to changing climate and variability. Occurrence of extreme events and disasters was cross-validated with DesInventer, a disaster database available for Nepal for 1971–2007. There has been no clear trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall of Chitwan during 1970–2007. However, variation in temperature and a significant upward trend for both minimum (p = 0.014) and maximum temperature (p = 0.018) was observed. The occurrence of extreme events and increased variability in temperature has increased the vulnerability of crops to biotic and abiotic stresses and altered the timing of agricultural operations; thereby affecting crop production. Despite growing attempts of local communities to adapt to changing climate and variability, further planned adaptation aimed at a larger scale and longer duration is necessary to sustain the livelihood security of small-holder farmers.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Agrawala S, Raksakulthai V, van Aalst M, Larsen P, Smith J, Reynolds J (2003) Development and climate change in Nepal: focus on water resources and hydropower. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  2. Aryal A, Brunton D, Raubenheimer D (2014) Impact of climate change on human-wildlife-ecosystem interactions in the Trans-Himalaya region of Nepal. Theor Appl Climatol 115:517–529

  3. Chaudhary P, Aryal KP (2009) Global warming in Nepal: challenges and policy imperatives. For Livelihood 8:3–13

    Google Scholar 

  4. Chaulagain NP (2006) Impacts of climate change on water resources of Nepal, the physical and socioeconomic dimensions. Dissertation, University of Flensburg, Germany. http://www.zhb-flensburg.de/dissert/chaulagain/Dissertation-Chaulagain.pdf

  5. District Agriculture Development Office (DADO) (2006) District agricultural development office annual report 2006, Bharatpur, Chitwan, Nepal

  6. Dahal N (2008) Answering basic questions on climate change in Nepal. Melting Glaciers, a NGO group bulletin on climate change research and development 2:3–6

    Google Scholar 

  7. Darwin R (2001) Issues in food security: climate change and food security. Agric Inf Bull 765–768. http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf

  8. DesInventar Dabase (2013) Disaster inventory/information management system for Nepal, online disaster database for Nepal. http://www.desinventar.net/DesInventar/main.jsp?countrycode=npl. Accessed 16 Aug 2013

  9. Evans N, Baierl A, Semenov MA, Gladders P, Fitt BDL (2008) Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming. J R Soc Interface 5:525–531

    Article  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  10. Ghimire R (2008) Resilience of community to climate change through adoption of sloping agriculture land technology and eco-friendly agriculture in Jugedi Khola Watershed, Nepal. Forum Geografic 7:208–215

    Google Scholar 

  11. Gurung GB, Bhandari DN (2009) Integrated approach to climate change adaptation. For Livelihood 8:91–99

    Google Scholar 

  12. Githeko AK, Lindsay SW, Confalonieri UE, Patz JA et al (2000) Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis. Bull World Health Organ 78:1136–1147

    CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  13. Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS, Samuel MD (2002) Ecology—climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science 296:2158–2162

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  14. Howden SM, Soussana JF, Tubiello FN, Chhetri N, Dunlop M, Meinke H (2007) Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:19691–19696

    Article  CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  15. Huq S, Reid H, Konate M, Rahman A, Sokona Y, Crick F (2004) Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Clim Policy 4:25–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. International Panel on Climate Change (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, Van Der Linden JP, Hanson CE (eds.) Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 7–22

  17. Joshi BK (2005) Rice gene pool for Tarai and inner Tarai areas of Nepal. Nepal Agric Res J 6:10–18

    Google Scholar 

  18. Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London

    Google Scholar 

  19. Khanal RC (2009) Climate change and organic agriculture. J Agric Environ 10:100–110

    Google Scholar 

  20. Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in continental United States, 1948–1988. J Clim 7:586–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Liverman D (2008) Assessing impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: reflections on the Working Group II Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Global Environ Change 18(1):4–7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Malla G (2008) Climate change and its implication on Nepalese agriculture. J Agric Environ 9:62–71

    Google Scholar 

  23. Manandhar S, Vogt DS, Perret SR, Kazama F (2011) Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers’ perception and practices. Reg Environ Change J 11:335–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Manandhar TD, Shin MY (2013) How community-based forest management can improve rural livelihoods: a case of Kabhre district. Nepal. For Sci Technol 9(3):131–136

    Google Scholar 

  25. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric test against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Team (NCVST) (2009) Vulnerability through the eyes of the vulnerable: climate change induced uncertainties and Nepal’s development predicaments. Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET), Kathmandu

    Google Scholar 

  27. Pant KP (2009) Effects of agriculture on climate change: a cross country study of factors affecting carbon emission. J Agric Environ 10:72–88

    Google Scholar 

  28. Polley HW (2002) Implications of atmospheric and climatic change for crop yield and water use efficiency. Crop Sci 42:131–140

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  29. Regmi B, Suwal R, Shrestha G, Sharma GB, Thapa L, Manandhar S (2009) Community resilience in Nepal. Tiempo Issue 73, October 2009, pp 7–10. http://www.forestrynepal.org/images/publications/regmi_tiempo.pdf

  30. Rosenzweig C, Hillel D (1995) Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and food supply, U.S. Global Change Research Information Office, Washington, DC

  31. Schiermeier Q (2008) Water: a long dry summer. Nature 452:270–273

    Article  CAS  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  32. Schmidhuber J, Tubiello FN (2007) Global food security under climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104(50):19703–19708

    Article  CAS  PubMed Central  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  33. Shumway RH, Stoffer DS (2011) Time series analysis and its applications: with R examples. Springer, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  34. Shrestha A (2005) Critical appraisal of management practices in Nepalese guava orchards. J Inst Agric Anim Sci 26:127–133

    Google Scholar 

  35. Sinha SK (1997) Global change scenario: current and future with references to land cover change and suitable agriculture—south East Asian context. Curr Sci 72:846–854

    Google Scholar 

  36. Smith JB, Lenhart SS (1996) Climate change adaptation policy options. Clim Res 6:193–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Swaminathan MS, Kesavan PC (2012) Agricultural research in an era of climate change. Agric Res 1(1):3–11

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Upreti BR, Upreti YG (2002) Factors leading to agro-biodiversity loss in developing countries: the case of Nepal. Biodivers Conserv 11(9):1607–1621

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. World Bank (2009). Shared views on development and climate change. http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/SOUTHASIAEXT/0,,contentMDK:22038355~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:223547,00.html. Accessed 16 Aug 2013

  40. Zucchini W, Nenadic O (2011). Time series analysis with R-Part I. Document de cours

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors are highly indebted to Global Future Institute (GFI), USA for financing the study. The authors express their gratitude to Nabin Poudel, Arjun Pandey, Mukunda Bhusal, Debendra Shrestha, Deepak Joshi and Tanka Kandel for technical assistance, and Joseph Dale for helping edit the manuscript. Thanks goes to Ecological Services Center Nepal for the photos, and three annonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that improved the manuscript considerably.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Agriculture and Animal Sciences, Tribhuvan University, Rampur, Nepal

    Bibek Paudel, Bharat Sharma Acharya, Rajan Ghimire, Khem Raj Dahal & Prakriti Bista

  2. Department of Applied Economics, Utah State University, Logan, UT, USA

    Bibek Paudel

  3. Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, 008C Agricultural Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Bharat Sharma Acharya

  4. Columbia Basin Agricultural Research Center, Oregon State University, Pendleton, OR, USA

    Rajan Ghimire

  5. Department of Plant Sciences, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA

    Prakriti Bista

Authors
  1. Bibek Paudel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bharat Sharma Acharya
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rajan Ghimire
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Khem Raj Dahal
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Prakriti Bista
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Bharat Sharma Acharya.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Paudel, B., Acharya, B.S., Ghimire, R. et al. Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change and Variability in Chitwan: Long-Term Trends and Farmers’ Perceptions. Agric Res 3, 165–174 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-014-0103-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40003-014-0103-0

Keywords

Search

Navigation